Israel-Gaza Strife Takes Pause, Leaving Uncertainty in Its Wake
Despite the current cease-fire, a renewed conflict seems just a matter of time, given the long-standing cycle of violence, internal Palestinian divisions, socioeconomic issues, and a lack of comprehensive solutions
A delicate cease-fire in place between Israel and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) in the Gaza Strip on Sunday has both sides of the border on edge, waiting to see what the future holds. The endless cycle of violence in the area could mean a short-lasting lull.
Calm was restored after five days of intense fighting in which the Israeli Air Force carried out over 300 airstrikes and PIJ militants fired over 1,000 rockets toward Israel, most of them intercepted by Israeli air defense systems.
Figures from the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs show that 34 Palestinians were killed in the violence, 13 of them civilians. Over 140 Palestinians were injured. One Israeli women was killed and over 30 people were either lightly injured or treated for shock. A Palestinian laborer from the Gaza Strip who had a permit to work in Israel was also killed by a rocket on Saturday.
The operation launched by Israel last Tuesday began with the targeted killing of three senior PIJ commanders. It came days after over 100 rockets were fired by the organization toward Israel. This rocket fire was a reaction to the death of a senior PIJ prisoner, who died from a hunger strike in an Israeli prison. This endless and bloody loop has characterized the Israel-Gaza conflict since Israel left the territory almost 20 years ago.
Israel captured the Gaza Strip during the 1967 Mideast war. Thousands of Israelis then settled in the territory, living amidst over 1 million Palestinians. Late Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon decided to unilaterally evacuate the territory in 2005, leaving it to the control of the Palestinian Authority (PA).
In 2007, the Hamas terrorist organization violently overthrew the PA and has controlled the territory ever since. Hamas does not recognize Israel and has fought four wars against the Jewish state since then, in addition to several rounds of violence. The PA continues to control part of the territories in the West Bank, creating an internal rift between Palestinians that now seems irreversible.
In the past year, Hamas has increased its efforts to execute attacks against Israelis from the West Bank, leaving Gaza outside of the conflict. Israeli military incursions into the West Bank against both Hamas and the PIJ have sometimes encouraged the organizations in Gaza to react.
Netanyahu wants a weakened Hamas to control Gaza in order to continue to differentiate the Gaza Strip from the West Bank
Successive Israeli governments, most of them led by Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu in the past decade, have operated to perpetuate the West Bank–Gaza divide.
“Netanyahu wants a weakened Hamas to control Gaza in order to continue to differentiate the Gaza Strip from the West Bank,” said Ronni Shaked, coordinator of the Middle East Unit at the Harry S. Truman Research Institute at Hebrew University in Jerusalem. “This allows him to continue to execute a gradual annexation of the West Bank.”
Netanyahu’s separation policy, which was originally meant to pressure Hamas and perhaps topple it, has taken a different turn as time progressed.
Netanyahu wants to keep the Palestinians divided because this exempts him from international pressure. This way he can say that there is no credible partner on the Palestinian side.
Palestinians see the West Bank as part of their future state. The current Israeli government, the most right-wing in history, opposes a two-state solution. While a Palestinian state seems like a distant reality regardless of the current Israeli government, continuing to nurture the internal Palestinian divide appears to be Netanyahu’s strategy.
“Netanyahu wants to keep the Palestinians divided because this exempts him from international pressure,” Mkhaimar Abusada, an associate professor and chairman of the Department of Political Science at Al-Azhar University in Gaza. “This way he can say that there is no credible partner on the Palestinian side.”
Since 2007, Israel has imposed a strict blockade on Gaza controlling almost all traffic of goods and people in and out of the Strip. Egypt, which also shares a border with Gaza, imposes a similar blockade. While it has no physical presence within the territory, Israel controls the border crossings from the land, sea, and air.
“Israel disengaged from Gaza, but Gaza didn’t disengage from Israel,” said Shaked.
For Gazans, the blockade is a policy that impacts every aspect of their lives.
For Hamas and the PIJ, it is the fuel for the constant conflict with Israel.
And indeed, since Israel left the Gaza Strip, thousands of rockets have been fired by Palestinian combatants toward Israel. In the beginning, the rockets were improvised and amateur, made from sewage and water pipes, reaching a short range. Over the years, they got more sophisticated and precise. Israel in response created the Iron Dome air defense system. Its high success rate in intercepting missiles gives Israel the possibility to withstand the cycles of violence while plunging the small area into somewhat of an arms race. Each side makes an effort to outdo the other.
“The last few years, war has just become a yearly thing,” says Deborah Benson Ben-Aderet, who lives on a kibbutz on the border with Gaza. Ben-Aderet has been frustrated with the policies of previous governments that did little to solve the problem. “I was bitter and angry, saying that actually, Hamas is my government.”
“At least this time, they were targeting terrorists and not dropping leaflets and blowing up empty buildings; how does that help anything?” she asked.
The latest round of violence between Israel and the PIJ saw Hamas sitting on the sidelines. As the sovereign over the Gaza Strip, Hamas has been trying to avoid conflict with Israel in the Strip, leaving resistance to the smaller organization in the territory. This has been the case not only in the latest round. The PIJ is increasingly taking the lead in resistance to Israel.
While both organizations are still committed to the destruction of Israel, Hamas has undertaken civilian roles that come with the responsibility of governing over 2 million residents. As the sovereign of one of the most impoverished territories in the world, Hamas cannot afford an all-out conflict with Israel.
Such conflicts in the past have taken a heavy toll on the Gaza Strip, with residents holding Hamas accountable. The PIJ has assumed no such responsibility, focusing solely on its resistance toward Israel.
“The strength of Hamas and the PIJ is just growing,” said Abusada. “The PIJ is the only organization that has escalated against Israel in recent years. Even though they lost most of their military commanders, that doesn’t mean the end of PIJ. Israel did the same with Hamas in the past and that didn’t put an end to it.”
The cease-fire agreement, brokered by Egypt, did not address any of the core issues of the conflict. This means a new round of violence, which could be deadlier, is only a matter of time.
“Israel moves from one round of violence to the next, without dealing with the major issues, only looking at the West Bank,” said Shaked. “There is no plan for the future.”
“Each round of violence ends up with the same result,” he added.
Once an ostracized organization, Hamas has gained significant political clout in the Middle East. As PA President Mahmoud Abbas is weakened and rarely heard from, Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh is given a warm welcome in many Arab capitals.
“The so-called weakening of Hamas by isolating it and keeping Gaza under sanctions, has not weakened it, especially in light of the weakening of the PA in the West Bank,” said Abusada.
“Hamas is being allowed to get away with a lot of things while it maintains calm with Israel,” said Dr. Michael Milshtein, head of the Palestinian Studies Forum of the Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies at Tel Aviv University and a senior analyst at the Institute for Policy and Strategy (IPS) at Reichman University. “The logic by which Israel promotes economic relief for Gaza and allows more money into Gaza is full of holes. Hamas is fully concentrating on igniting the West Bank.”
According to Milshtein, the calm between Hamas and Israel exists only above the surface. Below, things are bubbling, threatening to boil over very soon.
For years, Israel has turned a blind eye to Gaza, dealing only militarily with the issue. According to the Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics (PCBS), the fertility rate in Gaza is approximately 3.9 children per woman. By comparison, the rate in Israel—one of the highest among OECD countries—is about 3.1; and in US and EU, it is 1.7 and 1.6, respectively, both below the replacement level of 2.1. UN projections show that by 2030, Gaza will have a population of over 3 million and in 2050 that number will reach over 5 million.
“There is a need for more water, electricity, sewage pipes, and workplaces,” Shaked said.
“There is no thought on where Gaza will be demographically, politically, and economically a decade from now,” said Milshtein.
Data from the PCBS shows that around 45% of Gazans are unemployed. In recent years, Israel has gradually increased the number of work permits for Gazans to enter Israel to approximately 20,000. In the past year, there has also been an increase in agricultural exports from the Gaza Strip into Israel. For the laborers and their families, it is a lifeline. For Israel, it is leverage that is supposed to guarantee calm.
“Every escalation between Hamas and Israel has cost Gaza too much and Hamas does not want to lose that,” said Abusada. “The last thing that Gaza needs is further destruction.”
That doesn’t mean peace is on the horizon.
Hamas’ ideology will not bow to economic considerations. Hamas’ DNA is to continue promoting resistance to Israel.
“Hamas’ ideology will not bow to economic considerations,” said Milshtein. “Hamas’ DNA is to continue promoting resistance to Israel.”
For now, the cease-fire is holding. But with much potential for escalation, a new round of violence is only a matter of time.
“It’s always a temporary fix, it’s always a temporary cease-fire. … This isn’t going away,” said Benson Ben-Aderet.
