Israel Rejoices the Release of Hostages, but Its Strategic Dilemma Remains

The IDF rescued four Israeli hostages while killing 100 people and drawing global condemnation. Netanyahu urges unity, while Gantz considers leaving the coalition, and the fate of 120 remaining hostages stays uncertain

Four Israeli hostages were rescued alive in a dramatic operation carried out by the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) on Saturday, with the future of the remaining 120 hostages being held in Gaza by the Hamas terrorist organization very much still at stake.

The heroic rescue effort was met with feelings of elation across Israel, feelings that were mixed with sadness for an Israeli officer who was killed in the operation. Palestinians reported that over 200 people were killed during the IDF raid, which was conducted in broad daylight in the middle of the crowded area of Nuseirat. The Israeli military estimates the number was closer to 90. There was condemnation in the world for the civilian casualties reported, including from European foreign policy chief Josep Borrell, who called the operation “appalling.”

“Many sent messages of support, but only Israel’s enemies complained about the casualties of Hamas terrorists and their accomplices, accusing Israel of war crimes,” read a statement by Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz on Sunday. “We wholeheartedly reject these accusations. We will continue to act with determination and strength, in accordance with our right to self-defense, until all of the hostages are freed and Hamas is defeated.”

The operation also added fuel to an already raging debate in Israel on how to secure the release of the rest of the hostages. Hours after the release, tens of thousands of Israelis took to the streets as part of the weekly protests, calling on the government to reach a deal with Hamas. 

The deal currently on the table is an Israeli proposal that the White House is aggressively promoting. Hamas has yet to officially respond to the deal that would see the cessation of Israeli military activity in the Gaza Strip and the gradual release of the hostages over several weeks. In an attempt to encourage Israel to stand by its proposal, US President Joe Biden said the deal would also lead to the normalization of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia. 

The release of the hostages is only part of the war, and most likely, most of them will be released in a deal and not as a result of military force.

“Taking a look at the wider Israeli perspective, the hostages are not the main aim of the war or the core issue at stake, despite the moral debt that Israel has to return them,” Professor Eitan Shamir, director of the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies, told The Media Line. “The release of the hostages is only part of the war, and most likely, most of them will be released in a deal and not as a result of military force.”

“Understanding this clarifies why Israel is reluctant to stop the war against Hamas in return for the hostages, making this the main gap between the sides.” 

Hamas took approximately 250 hostages during its October 7 attack, during which it also killed 1200 people, stunning Israel and catapulting it to undertake a massive war against the terrorist organization. Half of the hostages were released in a swap deal a few weeks into the war. Seven hostages were rescued in military operations. The handful of complex and successful operations also highlighted the low probability of releasing the remaining hostages in a similar fashion.

Among those remaining in Gaza, at least 40 are believed to be dead. The fate of the rest remains unknown. The weekend operation, which surprised Hamas in Gaza, could change things for them.

“It is reasonable also to assume that Hamas is now tightening its guard over the hostages and will try to draw lessons from the operation yesterday and the loopholes discovered in its defensive posture of preserving the hostages,” said Lt. Col. (res.) Avi Kalo, former head of the MIA (Missing in Action) Department at the IDF Military Intelligence Directorate, at a video briefing for journalists held by the Media Central organization.

At the beginning of the war, Israel vowed to topple Hamas, rid it of its military capabilities, and release the hostages. Eight months into the war, it is still far from achieving both goals, with the government refusing to relent. 

Hamas officials who spoke after the events Saturday said Israel proved it was not interested in a deal.

“We’re committed to getting the release of all the hostages, and we expect Hamas to release them all—but if they don’t, we’ll do whatever it takes to get them all back home,” said Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, after meeting with the released hostages at a Tel Aviv hospital.

Israel’s war on Hamas has brought massive destruction to Gaza. According to the Hamas-run Health Ministry, over 36,000 Palestinians have been killed and over 80,000 injured. According to the United Nations (UN), about 1.7 million people have been displaced. 260 Israeli soldiers have been killed since the ground offensive began.

The operation, a joint effort by the IDF, an elite police unit, and forces from its secret service was praised, and Israelis were jubilant. But Israel still remains at a strategic crossroads, needing to decide whether to continue its war on Hamas or wind down. It hopes to clinch a deal with Hamas and perhaps see a wider regional settlement heralding a new era in the Middle East. 

Hours after pictures of the hostages reunited with their loves were released, demonstrations were held in several Israeli cities. Relatives of the remaining hostages and Israelis who support them called the government to reach a deal, also asking for new elections. Netanyahu has come under increasing criticism for what his opponents say is favoring his own political survival over the survival of the hostages. Far-right elements of his government have voiced opposition to any concessions to Hamas, saying Israel will only be able to secure the release of the hostages through intense military pressure on the terrorist group. 

“I call on the government to increase the military pressure on Hamas stemming on the faith and understanding that Hamas, the new Nazis, are an enemy one must not negotiate with,” said Yehoshua Shani, father of Ori Mordechai Shani, an IDF soldier who was killed as he tried to defend Israeli civilians on a kibbutz on October 7. “So far, we have not seen maximum pressure, but rather, the war is being managed with Israel under American pressure,” he told The Media Line.

Netanyahu, however, does have a majority in parliament if such a deal is brought to a vote. This does not guarantee the future of his government. 

“The operation shows that such things are possible, despite the huge risks that come with such actions,” Shamir said. “There is a desire to release as many hostages as possible through military operations, but clearly, not all of them can be released in this way.”

We need more pressure in order to bring total victory. Israel must not withdraw from its aim of destroying Hamas.

“The operation yesterday only strengthens our position,” Shani said. “We need more pressure in order to bring total victory. Israel must not withdraw from its aim of destroying Hamas.”

While Noa Argamani, Almog Meir Jan, Andrey Kozlov, and Shlomi Ziv were apparently held in apartments above ground, the majority of the hostages are believed to be hidden in underground tunnels, perhaps some of them being used as human shields for Hamas’ senior leadership.  This has dictated Israel’s military operation and also its willingness to negotiate.

“If Israel could release the hostages on an industrial scale through military operations, it would be a better option for it,” said Kalo. “This would not only fulfill the moral grounds of how to release the hostages but would also be a better way to deal with the heavy prices that Hamas demands when it comes to a deal.”

According to Kalo, any hostages who may have been held above ground will now likely be also taken down to Gaza’s underground tunnel network. 

“There is a growing danger for the hostages, further deteriorating their already severe situation,” he added. “Israel needs to urgently act and bring them home as soon as possible.”

Polls taken in recent weeks have shown that most Israelis are in favor of a deal now; many feel like the war is dragging on with no conclusive results.

“While the operation could put some pressure on Hamas, which sees that Israel is successful in reaching areas it thought it couldn’t, this pressure alone is not enough to get Hamas to agree,” said Shamir. “There needs to be multiple points of pressure on Hamas, not only militarily. But so far, Hamas is not budging on its demand that Israel stop its war against it completely.”

This is something Israel refuses to do. With both Hamas and Israel currently refusing a permanent ceasefire, the gap seems insurmountable. 

I pray every day for the release of the hostages. But it can’t come at the expense of ending the war, which would put Israel in greater danger than what it was before October 7. We have a duty to finish the mission that my son was on.

“I pray every day for the release of the hostages,” said Shani. “But it can’t come at the expense of ending the war, which would put Israel in greater danger than what it was before October 7. We have a duty to finish the mission that my son was on.”

Several media outlets reported Sunday that the US has asked Qatar to increase its pressure on Hamas. The Gulf state is a major backer of Hamas, home to its political leadership. It has also been acting as a mediator since the beginning of the war. 

For now, while Israel is believed to be behind the current proposal, it also appears determined to continue fighting, as does Hamas.