Israel Still Sitting on the Fence Regarding Ukraine-Russia War
But increased Iranian involvement with Russia, and Israel's desire to position itself closer to Kyiv and Washington, could change that, experts suggest
It has been almost a year since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, a war that has triggered massive changes in the international arena. The global economy is operating under the giant shadow of an energy war in Europe and millions of people have been displaced. These currents have made their mark in world politics and, as the war continues to take its toll, it is too soon to assess the final impact of the fighting.
For Israel, the war presents a tricky situation. The need to balance its national interests dictates good relations with Russia while maintaining its strategic partnership with the US, the cornerstone of Israeli foreign relations. Without a vested interest in being on Russia’s good side, such circumstances could otherwise have brought Israel to align against Russian President Vladimir Putin.
At the beginning of the war, Israel also hesitated in opening its doors to Ukrainian refugees. This was not only out of fear of Putin, but due to a careful immigration policy safeguarded for years by successive Israeli governments was being put to the test in the face of the large humanitarian crisis. After the policy attracted public criticism, the government was forced to loosen the criteria.
According to Israel’s Ministry of Aliyah (immigration) and Integration, almost 14,000 Ukrainian Jews chose to immigrate to Israel in 2022. Data from Israel’s Population and Immigration Authority shows that almost 80,000 Ukrainians entered the country since the beginning of the war. While over half have already left, a few thousand received refugee status. Accounts by many of them have painted a less-than-flattering picture of the welcome they have received in Israel.
Meanwhile, Israel continues to refrain from taking a clear stance on the war. It took time in denouncing the Russian invasion and has not joined the sanctions regime put in place by Western countries.
Israel is playing a political chess game. It makes a move with Russia, and then offers Ukraine some sort of aid. This repeats itself.
Last week, Israeli Foreign Minister Eli Cohen announced that the embassy in Kyiv will re-open in the coming weeks. The embassy was shut down at the beginning of the Russian offensive. The announcement was made during a conversation between Cohen and his Ukrainian counterpart, Dmytro Kuleba. Israeli media reported that Cohen accepted an invitation to visit Ukraine next month. Israel’s Foreign Ministry did not confirm the report.
When Cohen entered office last month, he said Israel would formulate a “responsible” policy on the war. He vowed to speak less on the matter and continue to provide humanitarian aid to Ukraine. It was perceived by some as a signal that Israel was changing direction and taking a more pro-Ukrainian approach to the conflict.
One of Cohen’s first conversations as foreign minister was with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov.
“For now, despite the rhetoric, there is no real change in Israel’s policy and it doesn’t look like there is one on the horizon,” said Arkady Mil-Man, a former Israeli ambassador to Russia and the head of the Russia Program at the Institute for National Security Studies. “Israel’s goals and strategic needs have stayed the same.”
“However, there is an increasing expectation from the US and the European Union (EU) that Israel will take a more active role on the Ukrainian matter,” he added.
“Israel is playing a political chess game,” said Anna Zharova, CEO of the Israeli-Ukrainian Alliance. “It makes a move with Russia, and then offers Ukraine some sort of aid. This repeats itself.”
Zharova, who has been part of many efforts as part of Israeli civil society organizations, is concerned that Israelis will now have less interest in the war and Israel’s position. Caught up in internal political turmoil, it will be difficult to attract attention, let alone get people to demonstrate against the government about its policy toward the war. Last year, when the war broke out thousands of Israelis rallied in attempt to pressure the government to take a pro-Ukrainian approach.
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“Israelis are now demonstrating against things that are much more important to their daily lives, the war is no longer a priority,” said Zharova.
According to Zharova, the Israeli government has done little to accommodate refugees.
“The majority of help comes from nongovernmental organizations,” she said. “Israel has made it almost impossible for refugees to arrive.”
Many civil society organizations have set up initiatives that help the refugees that have stayed in Israel. From medical care to legal aid, they are filling the vacuum created by the state. Israel’s Ministry of Labor, Social Affairs and Social Services has been charged with granting assistance to the refugees. Their treatment has come under criticism for being lackluster and insufficient.
A recent poll commissioned by the Israeli embassy in Ukraine showed a slim majority of Ukrainians consider Israel a friendly country.
“This is a reflection of the efforts Ukrainians see by Israeli civil society,” said Zharova. “They see a continuous flow of aid and assistance by NGOs and respond to this.”
The slim majority may be related to the fact that, until now, Israel has resisted Ukrainian requests for weapons and air-defense systems.
“Israel supports Ukraine but it will never deliver weapons to Ukraine because the Russians have a myriad of ways to get back at Israel,” said Capt. (ret.) Alex Grinberg, a former Israeli military intelligence officer and an expert on Iran at the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security.
A recent media report said the US was sending military shells from storage in Israel to Ukraine. If true, such a move would require Israeli cooperation. Throughout the war, there have been consistent reports of Israeli-Ukrainian intelligence sharing. Such cooperation has become increasingly relevant, as Ukraine suffered Russian attacks from Iranian-made drones, a threat Israel has previous experience with.
During the last election campaign, Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu said he would consider supplying Ukraine with weapons. Despite the government being in its early days, there is no indication this will materialize.
In interviews with American news outlets, Netanyahu’s comments could be seen as a response to American criticism of Israel’s decision to walk a tightrope throughout the conflict.
Yet, things on the ground are constantly evolving.
“Israel may need to reassess its position,” said Mil-Man. “Russian presence and abilities in Syria are declining, as it increasingly focuses on the war in Ukraine. Israel is a sovereign nation and does not need to seek President Putin’s approval every time it operates.”
Israelis are now demonstrating against things that are much more important to their daily lives, the war is no longer a priority
Israel is interested in maintaining its freedom to operate in Syrian skies in order to push back on Iranian-backed militant organizations. Russian presence in Syria dictates that Israel upholds its relations with Moscow.
But looking ahead, Israel may want to position itself closer to Kyiv and Washington.
“The Ukrainian army is currently the strongest and most experienced in combat in Europe. They also know how to use American weapons very effectively. This could become a huge market for Israel’s defense industry,” said Mil-Man.
Israeli companies could also find business in any rehabilitation efforts for Ukraine. Israel was excluded from previous international summits on Ukrainian reconstruction.
“If Israel will not support Ukraine now, it might not be able to take part in rehabilitation in the future,” Mil-Man added.
Yet the power of Russian influence on Israel’s policy must not be underestimated. Israel and Russia are not on equal footing in the international arena and Russian influence in the Middle East cannot be discarded, especially in light of increased American unwillingness to get its hands dirty in the region.
“Israel has been very careful until now and needs to continue to do so,” said Dr. Anna Geifman, an expert on Russia from the Department of Political Studies at Bar-Ilan University. “Israel does not fully understand Russian intensions and therefore the intuition to be careful is the correct one.”
Increased Iranian involvement in the war could push Israel further to the Western camp.
American pressure could also change this.
“Israel only has one true ally – the US, and if the US will demand a change, Israel will have no choice,” said Mil-Man.
