Israel Warns Beirut on Hezbollah Disarmament as Border Strikes Roll On
A senior US envoy cautions of “grave” consequences, while the IDF says it dismantled Hezbollah posts and analysts describe a fragile deterrence holding along the frontier
US Ambassador to Turkey and Special Envoy for Syria Tom Barrack warned Monday in an ominous post on X that Israel could strike Hezbollah unilaterally if Beirut fails to disarm the Iran-backed group, saying the consequences would be “grave” if Lebanon does not act.
Early Tuesday, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said it dismantled several Hezbollah positions along the border “in order to prevent a future establishment of the terrorist organization in the border area,” adding, “The IDF will continue to operate to remove any threat to the State of Israel.”
Nearly a year into the US-brokered ceasefire that took effect in November 2024, Israel has carried out frequent strikes on Hezbollah targets while keeping small troop detachments at five positions inside southern Lebanon; the group has largely avoided retaliation as it tries to rebuild, analysts say.
“This is probably an effort to pressure the government of Lebanon,” Avraham Levine, a speaker and digital content manager at the Alma Research and Education Center, a security think tank in northern Israel, told The Media Line. “Israel is not preparing for its next big war against Hezbollah, it is so far successful in preventing the reestablishment of Hezbollah and as long as this is the case, this will just remain a threat.”
Alma data indicate the IDF has conducted about 600 airstrikes on Hezbollah targets since the ceasefire took effect, with nearly half in southern Lebanon near the Israeli border.
The situation is very unstable. Both sides are violating the ceasefire.
“The situation is very unstable,” Amatzia Baram, a professor emeritus at the University of Haifa and an expert in Middle Eastern politics, told The Media Line. “Both sides are violating the ceasefire. Israel by initiating attacks against Hezbollah, which is trying to rehabilitate itself.”
Under the ceasefire terms, Hezbollah and Israel are required to withdraw from south Lebanon, and the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon, the UN peacekeeping force, is tasked with helping dismantle Hezbollah infrastructure.
The agreement also reportedly included a letter of assurance from the US to Israel granting limited latitude to operate militarily against Hezbollah, according to media accounts.
Israel says it has kept troops at five locations in southern Lebanon it considers strategic vantage points, in addition to continued strikes on Hezbollah targets.
More than 100 civilians have been killed by Israeli airstrikes since the ceasefire took effect, the UN says, referring to casualties in Lebanon; the figure and time frame were not immediately available for independent verification.
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The ceasefire is largely intact. Both sides are busy at work—Hezbollah is continuously trying to rebuild itself and the IDF continues to attack, mainly in southern Lebanon.
Levine added, “The ceasefire is largely intact. Both sides are busy at work—Hezbollah is continuously trying to rebuild itself, and the IDF continues to attack, mainly in southern Lebanon.”
The ceasefire also obligates the Lebanese government to take concrete steps toward Hezbollah’s disarmament and to assert state authority over all of Lebanon—longstanding Israeli demands that Western mediators backed during last year’s negotiations. Such moves remain politically fraught in Beirut, where Hezbollah is the most powerful political-military actor, holds significant parliamentary strength, and wields influence across state institutions.
Media reports quoting American and Israeli intelligence officials say Hezbollah is working to rearm despite its commitments under the deal, concentrating efforts north of the Litani River—about 12 miles (20 km) from the Israeli border.
“Hezbollah is still managing to smuggle weapons into Lebanon and has also developed local manufacturing of weapons to replace the import from Iran,” said Baram.
Before the latest war with Israel—in which the group was severely hit—Hezbollah operated as a powerful Shiite armed and political movement backed by Iran, committed to Israel’s destruction and positioning itself as the vanguard of armed resistance.
Hezbollah joined Hamas in Gaza in attacking Israel in October 2023. The Israeli campaign against the Iranian-backed Lebanese group inflicted substantial damage on Hezbollah and its capabilities, according to Israeli assessments.
Reports indicate Hezbollah has lost roughly half of its missile and rocket arsenal accumulated over decades. The group’s military infrastructure, including bases and weapons depots, was also targeted, further degrading its operational capacity. Israeli officials say much of the organization’s senior leadership was eliminated, including Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah; he was succeeded by Naim Qassem.
A year after Nasrallah’s death brought Qassem to power, a younger leadership cohort is emerging inside the movement.
“The young commanders refuse to accept Qassem’s continued restraint in face of Israeli operations,” said Baram.
Across the wider regional confrontation, Israel also struck Iranian assets, and officials in Jerusalem say Iran’s nuclear program, ballistic missile capabilities, and air defenses absorbed significant blows. As Hezbollah’s primary backer, Tehran retains considerable leverage over the group’s decision-making.
“Iran refuses to accept any disarmament of Hezbollah and will even back Hezbollah if it needs to confront the Lebanese army but is accepting of Qassem’s restraint in the response to Israeli attacks,” Baram explained. “Both Hezbollah and Iran are at their weakest position ever.”
As Israeli drones and fighter jets continue to patrol Lebanese skies, Hezbollah appears to be pursuing containment, refraining for now from major retaliation. The group also seems to tolerate the presence of Israeli troops at the five outposts inside southern Lebanon.
“Hezbollah does not have the ability to retaliate at this point in time,” said Levine. “It is completely focused on its rehabilitation. But I would not rule out that it will try to carry out local attacks against Israeli forces inside Lebanon.”
Nearly a year after the ceasefire, tensions along the border persist amid mutual accusations of violations.
Both sides appear to be maintaining a fragile deterrence that could unravel through escalation or miscalculation.
Israeli officials have warned they will use greater force if Hezbollah delays disarmament.
With Qassem repeatedly saying his group will not disarm, the ceasefire’s durability remains uncertain.
Israel needs to threaten that it can be even harsher than it already is
Baram argued, “Israel needs to threaten that it can be even harsher than it already is. It needs to make a credible threat that it is prepared to go to war—not by empty threats, but by mobilizing troops and committing to completely withdraw from Lebanon if Hezbollah completely disarms.”
With rearmament claims mounting and enforcement contested, both sides say they are prepared—but neither appears eager—to test the ceasefire’s limits.
