Israeli Military Nears End of Rafah Campaign, Looks Ahead

As the Rafah operation winds down, Israel considers the implications for its ongoing conflict with Hamas

Almost two months after launching a contentious military operation in Rafah, the Israeli military is believed to be concluding its operations in the southern Gaza city. Israel now faces critical questions about the future of its war against Hamas.

The Israeli government, led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, must decide on the nature of its military presence in the Gaza Strip. At the beginning of the war, almost nine months ago, Netanyahu promised to crush Hamas and forcibly remove it from power. His vow of “total victory” followed the terrorist organization’s storming of Israel’s southern border, killing approximately 1,200 Israelis and kidnapping another 250 people.

Israel’s military response to the attack was massive, beginning with an air, naval, and ground offensive. According to the Hamas-run Gaza Health Ministry, over 37,700 Palestinians have been killed during the war. The ministry does not provide data on how many of the dead are combatants and how many are civilians. The United Nations estimates that approximately 1.7 million people have been displaced as a result of the fighting, with many of the displaced ending up in Rafah before the Israeli military operation there.

Senior Israeli officials portrayed Rafah as the last Hamas stronghold needed to defeat the group and achieve the government’s goal. However, as the war dragged on and Israel’s goals seemed unattainable, the end of the Rafah operation does not necessarily spell the end of Israeli military presence in the Gaza Strip.

The day after is a process that will last for many years. Despite the darkness and the tragedy, a thriving area could be born.

“There is no such thing as the day after. This is not some reality show with an instant star that is born,” said Moshe Fuzaylov, from the Misgav Institute for National Security and Zionist Strategy and a former senior Shin Bet security agency officer. “The day after is a process that will last for many years. Despite the darkness and the tragedy, a thriving area could be born.”

Gaza should have been completely conquered from the beginning and controlled by Israel, … including being responsible for the civilian population

Criticism within Israel, including from Netanyahu’s far-right government, claims that the army has not been forceful enough in subduing Hamas. “The operation was not conducted in a way that showed decisiveness,” Fuzaylov told The Media Line. “The use of raids as a means does not fit the goal. When fighting a guerilla organization, if one does not control the territory, the guerilla fighters come back. Gaza should have been completely conquered from the beginning and controlled by Israel, … including being responsible for the civilian population.”

Netanyahu has ruled out Israeli military rule in Gaza, despite pressure from more extremist members of his government. Former senior defense officials, including Fuzaylov, estimate that Israel will need to maintain a presence in Gaza for many years to quell the Hamas threat.

“Israel cannot be in any of the future Palestinian state geography, including security zones. Israeli presence is not an option. The way forward is a full, continuous part of Palestine in Gaza and beyond,” said Dr. Sabri Saidam, deputy secretary-general of the Ramallah-based Fatah Central Committee. “Reconstruction and healing the wounds, managing people, is very important. We see this as the responsibility of the international community, which has facilitated and endorsed Israel’s campaign. Moreover, we see this as Israel’s responsibility as the aggressor who waged this war.”

Israel, the US, and other international actors have all been considering ideas for Gaza’s future. Netanyahu and his government have rejected any talk about allowing the Palestinian Authority (PA) to enter Gaza, claiming the PA is no better than Hamas.

“The future for Gaza is the future of the West Bank—geographical continuity, demographic integrity, competence, reliability, and capability that will lead to a different reality recognizing a Palestinian state,” Saidam told The Media Line. “We also want to see the reconstruction of Gaza and a single rule by the PA based on consensus among the political parties, including Hamas.”

The internal Palestinian rift, dividing the Fatah-run PA in the West Bank and Hamas in the Gaza Strip, is a major obstacle to any solution. Hamas violently took over the PA in Gaza in 2007. “Removing Hamas from the political scene or out of power is not something that can be presented to any Palestinian of any political faction,” Saidam said. “Although we are divided now, we aim to present a consensus to the international community, so the Palestinian people can speak with one voice.”

Israel also faces a dilemma on how to end tensions with Hezbollah on its northern border with Lebanon. The Lebanese-based terrorist organization began firing at Israel a day after the Hamas surprise attack, aiming to help the Palestinian group defeat the Jewish state. Experts believe that a cease-fire between Israel and Hezbollah is tied to the cessation of hostilities in Gaza. Such a war could lead to a wider regional confrontation involving Iran and other world powers.

According to Fuzaylov, Israel’s fight against Hamas is part of a larger battle against the Iranian axis operating against Israel on several fronts. Iran threatens not only Israel but also Saudi Arabia and Jordan. This was highlighted in Iran’s massive missile and drone attack on Israel earlier this year, in which Iran threatened to retaliate against Jordan if it helped Israel thwart the attack.

“This big threat will force everyone to create a situation in which a wall will be erected against Iran,” Fuzaylov said. “Iran’s ring of fire against Israel could quickly extend to Saudi Arabia. This situation should be used to create a coalition of countries that will prevent Iran from taking over the Middle East.”

Hamas is a more independent proxy of Iran, acting largely upon its own interests with Iranian support and funding.

The US has tried to promote a settlement between Hamas and Israel that would be part of a larger regional reconstruction, including normalization between Saudi Arabia and Israel. As long as the Israeli war effort continues and the impasse in cease-fire talks persists, this will not happen. The new regional architecture desired by the US also involves the establishment of a Palestinian state, something the current Israeli government refuses to allow.

Negotiations between Hamas and Israel, mediated by the US and Qatar, reached a halt several weeks ago as Hamas declined an Israeli-American offer that included the gradual release of the remaining 120 Israeli hostages still in captivity. Reports over the weekend suggested an amended proposal will be presented to Hamas in an attempt to restart negotiations that would also lead to a cooling down between Hezbollah and Israel.

The last thing Netanyahu wants is a war in Lebanon, and he will do everything possible to avoid it

“The last thing Netanyahu wants is a war in Lebanon, and he will do everything possible to avoid it,” said Roni Rimon, a strategic adviser and partner at the public relations firm Rimon Cohen & Co. “To avoid that, he needs an agreement with Hamas that includes the release of the hostages.”

Such an agreement, which would still need to be approved by Hamas, would likely put Netanyahu at odds with his political allies, risking the future of his coalition. Netanyahu’s opponents accuse him of stalling negotiations and concluding the war in Gaza for this reason. Weekly demonstrations have seen thousands of Israelis take to the streets calling for his resignation and a swift deal with Hamas.

Netanyahu’s approval ratings plummeted at the beginning of the war but have begun to recuperate slightly in recent weeks. However, he and his Likud party are still significantly behind their political rivals. For now, elections are not on the horizon until October 2026.

“A deal with Hamas is bad for Israel in any case,” Rimon told The Media Line. “But at the end of the day, Netanyahu won’t have a choice because he will not be able to explain to Israelis why not to accept it, especially when it comes to the release of hostages.”

Such a deal would likely involve the release of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners currently held in Israeli jails, many of whom have been convicted of murdering Israelis. Their release will be difficult for Israelis to process, following Hamas’ large-scale attack and Israel’s aggressive response. However, a war against Hezbollah is also expected to take a heavy toll on Israel, both militarily and on the home front.

“Sometimes political interests derive from a lack of choice, and this is currently the situation,” Rimon said. “There are times when political interests align with national interests. This is one of those times when a war with Hezbollah, while Israel would win, is better avoided.”

After visiting the US last week, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said Israel preferred a diplomatic settlement on its border with Lebanon. At the opening of the cabinet meeting Sunday, Netanyahu reiterated his commitment to destroying Hamas, releasing the hostages, and restoring calm in the north.