Israeli Military Strategy in Syria May Be Affected by Arab-Syrian Normalization
Experts are divided as to whether Iranian influence in Syria will be diminished by Syria’s normalization with the Arab world
After more than a decade of being banned from the Arab League, Syria is reportedly going to be invited to the organization’s next summit, which will be held in Saudi Arabia in May. At the same time as Syria’s ties with other Middle Eastern countries are being normalized, Israel has been ramping up its attacks on Iranian military targets in Syrian territory.
Carmit Valensi, head of the Northern Arena program at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv, explained that Israel has multiple geopolitical motivations behind its increased strikes on Iranian targets in Syria. Iran is currently attempting to increase its military presence in Syria and to transfer weapons to Hizbullah, an Iranian proxy group in Lebanon. Both aims pose a threat to Israeli security.
“Israel’s main strategy includes an ongoing effort to disrupt the construction of the Iranian military campaign on Syria’s territory, using aerial attacks,” Valensi told The Media Line. She added that the yearslong campaign has been generally successful, as Iranian entrenchment in Syria has not been achieved on the scale Iran had hoped for. Israel has also mitigated the scale of Iran’s weapon transfer, including disrupting the transfer of precision weapons from Tehran to Syria and to Hizbullah in Lebanon.
In the past almost two months since the earthquake in Syria, we have seen over 1,000 convoys crossing the border from Iraq into Syria from the border crossing that is under Iranian control. … It can be a convoy of two trucks or some that comprise as many as 280 trucks. These trucks, we believe, are not just humanitarian aid. They carry a lot of ammunition and weapons.
Iran is believed to be taking advantage of the devastating earthquakes that struck Syria and Turkey in February as a front to smuggle more weapons and ammunition into Syria. This increase in smuggling explains the escalation of Israeli attacks, Sarit Zehavi, president of the Alma Research and Education Center and a former officer in the IDF Intelligence Directorate, told The Media Line.
“In the past almost two months since the earthquake in Syria, we have seen over 1,000 convoys crossing the border from Iraq into Syria from the border crossing that is under Iranian control,” Zehavi said. “When I’m saying convoys, it can be a convoy of two trucks or some that comprise as many as 280 trucks. These trucks, we believe, are not just humanitarian aid. They carry a lot of ammunition and weapons.”
The Arab world’s normalization of its relations with Syria will not serve to diminish Iran’s influence in Syria, Zehavi said. She noted that “there is compliance with what Iran is doing in Syria.”
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Zehavi attributed Saudi Arabia’s rapprochement with Iran and subsequently Syria to Saudi insecurity regarding its relationship with the US.
Valensi, too, attributed various Gulf countries’ warming relationships with Syria to their doubts regarding their ties with the US. Countries like Saudi Arabia “do not count on the US as a superpower that will save them from regional threats. Therefore, they believe that they need to engage with one another in order to mitigate the regional threat,” she said.
According to Valensi, welcoming Syrian President Bashar Assad back into the Arab community of nations might serve as leverage to diminish Iran’s influence in Syria in the long term. This might reduce the need for Israeli military operations against Iran-linked targets in neighboring Syria, she said.
Jordan is leading the attempt to renew ties between Syria and the rest of the Arab world, Valensi said. She explained that in Jordan’s proposal, the countries of the region will recognize Assad, transfer billions of dollars to Syria for reconstruction, and pressure the US and Europe to lift sanctions. In return, Assad will commit to some conditions such as resuming talks with the Syrian opposition, blocking drug smuggling, allowing the presence of Arab forces to protect the return process of refugees to Syria, and reducing the presence of Iranian forces in the country.
Assad will not be completely dependent on Iran economically and militarily
“From what I know, and from my conversation with some officials in the region, they truly believe that this deal will, in the long term, lead to reducing Assad’s dependency on Iran by allowing him to maneuver among more actors such as the Sunni Arab pragmatic actors,” Valensi said. “Assad will not be completely dependent on Iran economically and militarily.”
The Arab Sunni bloc led by Saudi Arabia understands Assad will maintain relations with Iran as long as they have a long-term strategic alliance, Valensi said. But she noted that the Sunni states understand that a gradual process may lead Assad to engage with other countries in the region and will perhaps strengthen Syria’s sovereignty.
In the short term, Valensi said, Iran will continue its military activity in Syria and Israel will continue to attempt to fend it off. “As long as [Iran is] there, they are building their forces, and training their Shiite militias to attack Israel when needed, so I don’t see how it will influence in the short term on Israel activity,” she said.
If, in the long term, Assad demands a reduction of Iranian forces in Syria, “we will also see less Israeli intervention in Syria,” Valensi said.
Were the geopolitical climate to change such that Assad is seen as a legitimate player in the region, that might decrease the perceived legitimacy of Israeli attacks in Syria, “especially when it comes to so-called civilian targets like Damascus International Airport,” Valensi said. She noted that the airport is arguably a legitimate military target given that Iran uses it to deliver weapons.
“Assad is gaining more regional legitimacy,” Valensi said. “Due to our relations with some of the Arab countries, it might pose some limitation on Israel’s freedom of operation.”
In Zehavi’s view, Israel’s ability to conduct military strikes in Syria was never dependent on the approval of the Arab world, but rather on Israel’s operational capability. Russia might be the one country that could influence Israel’s military activity in Syria, Zehavi said, noting that even during difficult periods in Israel-Russia relations, Israel continued to strike Iranian targets in Syria.
If Israel wants to reduce Iran’s power in the region, it should focus not just on attacking Iranian targets in Syria but also on using its regional alliances with the UAE and Bahrain to campaign against Iranian activity in Syria, Valensi said.
She called on Israel to “take advantage of this atmosphere of normalization with Syria to deliver messages to Assad, and to share with Israel’s allies in the region that Iran poses a concrete threat to Israel.”
