Israel’s Parliament Heads to Recess With Many Hot Potatoes on the Agenda
As the Knesset enters summer recess, Israel faces war and political strife. PM Netanyahu, in the US for Congress, deals with potential hostage deals that could topple his government amid tensions with Hezbollah and Hamas
Israel’s parliament, the Knesset, begins its summer recess Wednesday, at a pivotal time for the country. Simultaneously, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is in the United States and is scheduled to speak at a joint session of Congress.
Israel is fighting a lengthy, complex war on several fronts as it struggles to hold on to dwindling international legitimacy against the Gaza-based Hamas terrorist organization. Fighting on its northern border with Lebanon against Hezbollah is also threatening to grow into a larger conflict that could affect the entire region.
All the while, Netanyahu faces challenges from within his government. Far-right members of his coalition are threatening to resign if a deal to release the Israeli hostages from the hands of Hamas is reached. The deal will likely see Israel halt its war on Hamas and the release of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners in return. Should it be approved by both Israel and Hamas, the subsequent withdrawal of Netanyahu’s coalition partners would topple the government. This would lead Israel to elections, putting the Israeli premier’s political future in question. If on schedule, the next election is slated for October 2026.
As the Knesset closes yet another contentious session, under the shadow of a bloody and increasingly contentious war, it also passed legislation severing relations with the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA), declaring it a terrorist organization. Left hanging is the ultra-Orthodox Jewish draft law that, if approved, could see an official exemption from military service, which would catapult Israel into yet another internal crisis.
WILL NETANYAHU’S EXTREME-RIGHT COALITION SURVIVE?
With the Knesset now starting its summer break, the current coalition, Israel’s most right-wing to ever govern, has at least a few more months in its current constellation.
The coalition has looked like it’s falling apart for months now, but every member of this coalition knows it won’t get a better deal in an election, and they will be going to the opposition.
“The coalition has looked like it’s falling apart for months now, but every member of this coalition knows it won’t get a better deal in an election, and they will be going to the opposition,” said Dr. Tomer Persico, a researcher fellow at the Shalom Hartman Institute and a Rubinstein Fellow at Reichman University. “Even those opposing a hostage deal might vote against it but will stay in the coalition, and that’s not going to be Netanyahu’s problem.”
Netanyahu will eventually try to dissolve the coalition once he thinks he is in a better position to move towards the next election.
“Netanyahu will eventually try to dissolve the coalition once he thinks he is in a better position to move towards the next election,” Persico added.
Before the war broke out, there was intense public opposition to the government due to its attempt to implement sweeping reforms to the judiciary. The war led to the rallying of Israelis behind the government, a sentiment that has been fading as the fighting drags on and differences re-surface. Netanyahu has been gradually recovering in the polls after plummeting at the beginning of the war when the majority of the Israeli public saw him as responsible for one of the country’s greatest disasters.
Netanyahu continues to make political maneuvers. Israeli media reported he postponed the establishment of a new, smaller consultation forum on war matters that would include far-right ministers Itamar Ben Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich. The deferral was likely due to his visit to the US, during which he did not want to cause controversy with his American hosts, who are averse to the two politicians. But Netanyahu is looking to placate Smotrich and Ben Gvir in order to pass a series of laws important to his ultra-Orthodox coalition partners and secure their support on other matters, such as the hostage release deal.
As Netanyahu prepared for his Congress speech, Ben Gvir prayed at the Temple Mount site in Jerusalem last week, essentially changing the fragile status quo at the contested spot. It was a political move meant to remind Netanyahu that he would need to concede to their demands if he wanted their backing on certain laws.
This holiday season, give to:
Truth and understanding
The Media Line's intrepid correspondents are in Israel, Gaza, Lebanon, Syria and Pakistan providing first-person reporting.
They all said they cover it.
We see it.
We report with just one agenda: the truth.
HOSTAGE DEAL AND GAZA WAR AT A CROSSROADS
Earlier this week, Netanyahu said conditions for a hostage deal “are ripening,” raising hopes that at least some of the 120 Israeli hostages being held captive by Hamas for almost ten months will be released soon. The deal would be gradual in nature, and the immediate release of all of the hostages would not be seen.
It is not clear that a deal is possible. Such a deal might complicate Israel further. It will be very difficult for Israel to resume the war effort after several weeks of cease-fire, and all the hostages will never be released. Hamas will keep the hostages as an insurance policy.
“It is not clear that a deal is possible,” said Dr. Adi Schwartz, an expert on Israeli-Palestinian relations and refugees from the Misgav Institute for National Security and Zionist Strategy. “Such a deal might complicate Israel further. It will be very difficult for Israel to resume the war effort after several weeks of cease-fire, and all the hostages will never be released. Hamas will keep the hostages as an insurance policy.”
Polls show most of the Israeli public is in favor of a deal that would include concessions to the Palestinians. At least hundreds of Palestinian prisoners convicted of murdering Israelis will likely be released as part of a deal. In addition, Israel will likely temporarily withdraw its forces from the Gaza Strip, pausing its war on Hamas.
“The terms of the deal now conform to Israel’s main security demand, which is that after the first stage, Israel is not bound to stop the war,” said Professor Jonathan Rynhold, head of the Department of Political Studies at Bar-Ilan University. “But there are still a couple of serious security-related issues that any Israeli Prime Minister would be concerned about and cannot be dismissed by saying Netanyahu wants to stretch this out.”
There has been speculation that the timing of conditions’ ripening is not coincidental. According to Rynhold, Netanyahu’s confidence in his government’s stability could lead him to make more compromises on security issues.
Israel would like to prevent weapons from being smuggled from Egypt into Gaza, something it is now doing with boots on the ground.
“The only real way to be 100% certain is to maintain direct Israeli control,” Rynhold told The Media Line. “On the other hand, it makes the soldiers sitting ducks. So, Netanyahu might look for a way to finesse that issue. He senses the clock is running down. He wants to rack up as many positive things as possible to lessen the sense that is very strong amongst the public that he has a significant degree of responsibility for what happened.”
Both Israel and Hamas have yet to give their official response.
With the Knesset in recess, the parliament cannot topple the government for the next few months. Netanyahu, therefore, feels secure, and from other directions, he is pressured to seal the deal – both from the Americans, the military top brass, his security minister, and for his own future reputation.
“With the Knesset in recess, the parliament cannot topple the government for the next few months,” Persico told The Media Line. “Netanyahu, therefore, feels secure, and from other directions, he is pressured to seal the deal – both from the Americans, the military top brass, his security minister, and for his own future reputation. He is at the point in which he feels further neglecting hostages and letting them die slowly in Hamas tunnels will stick to his legacy, which he doesn’t want.”
LEGISLATION THAT HAS PASSED AND LAWS THAT ARE WAITING
As parliament wrapped up its session, a blitz of legislative proposals was brought to the plenum. Three of those laws that passed an initial reading essentially outlawed UNRWA, requiring Israel to sever ties with the organization that many in the country see as cooperating with Hamas.
UNRWA is at the heart of the conflict and represents the Palestinian perception that they will someday return to lands that are now Israel. This will help in weakening the ideological infrastructure of the Palestinians and could be dramatic if implemented.
“UNRWA is at the heart of the conflict and represents the Palestinian perception that they will someday return to lands that are now Israel,” Schwartz told The Media Line. “This will help in weakening the ideological infrastructure of the Palestinians and could be dramatic if implemented.”
“The legislation needs to be part of a whole campaign that clarifies to the Palestinians that Israel is here to stay,” he added.
The Palestinians and UNRWA condemned the move.
Schwartz raised doubts about the Israeli government’s ability and desire to enforce the laws, which would put Israel on yet another collision course with the international community. The law still has two readings to pass in the next Knesset session before it becomes final.
Another hot potato waiting is the ultra-orthodox, or Haredi, draft bill, which would set the age of exemption for religious Jewish students at 21 while gradually increasing the rate of their conscription. Netanyahu’s far-right, ultra-Orthodox government was supposed to be the platform from which the Haredi parties would be able to finally realize their dream of legislating their exemption. The war shattered that dream, as Israelis who do serve in the army are bearing a much heavier burden than before. The exemption is highly unpopular with the public, putting Netanyahu at odds with his political partners.
The ultra-Orthodox will not want to bring down the government right now. They will look to come back in the next session and fight it somehow.
“The ultra-Orthodox will not want to bring down the government right now. They will look to come back in the next session and fight it somehow,” said Rynhold.
At the height of a war, members of parliament from all sides will have difficulty facing the public while approving any blanket exemption.
“The public is humiliated by the fact that there is one part of it that is not participating in the war effort and doing everything to avoid this,” said Persico. “It’s more a public relations problem than a legal problem, which the government will probably find some gambit trick.”
The Knesset will now enter a three-month recess, a move that has also drawn criticism from the public during wartime. With so many paramount issues on the agenda, the next session is guaranteed to be stormy, one that may even see the final days of the current government.
