Israel’s War Goals Shift Amid Prolonged Conflict With Hamas
“The goals of the war are gradually being downsized and rearranged. The initial goals were probably impossible. The problem with such goals is that you are setting yourself up for failure.”
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told Israelis on Saturday that the war against Hamas, which has been going on for almost three months, will last for many more months to come.
Achieving victory requires more time
“Achieving victory requires more time,” Netanyahu said at a press conference held at the military headquarters in Tel Aviv.
Israeli army radio quoted a senior military officer on Sunday who said the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) does not believe it will be able to destroy all of Hamas’ rocket-launching infrastructure during the war. Rocket fire from Gaza has been significantly reduced since the beginning of the war, but many Israelis envision a future with no rockets from its southern neighbor. This, according to the officer, may not be a realistic objective. As such, this raises a question regarding the goals Israel set out to achieve almost three months ago in the wake of the Hamas offensive, which sent shockwaves through the country.
When Israel launched its operation against Hamas in the Gaza Strip, it set two main objectives: One was to release all of the hostages that were abducted by the Gaza-based terrorist group, and the second was to topple Hamas, ridding it of all its military capabilities and essentially removing it from power in the Gaza Strip.
Three months on, the IDF is deeply entrenched in the territory with hundreds of thousands of boots on the ground, and, according to countless statements by Netanyahu, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and senior military officers, there is still much more to be accomplished. Israel’s military, one of the strongest and most sophisticated in the world, is facing a terrorist organization in a complex, crowded urban arena that is proving to be an uphill battle.
The goals of the war are gradually being downsized and rearranged. The initial goals were probably impossible.
“The goals of the war are gradually being downsized and rearranged,” said Prof. Motti Neiger, from Bar-Ilan University’s School of Communication. “The initial goals were probably impossible. The problem with such goals is that you are setting yourself up for failure.”
“War is not only a military operation but also a battle over consciousness,” Neiger added. “Victory also needs to be constructed in the psychological realm. More modest goals could allow a portrayal of victory.”
The Israeli military is now pushing forward in an attempt to reach as many achievements as possible while the clock is ticking. Israel is under intense international pressure to significantly scale down the war effort, with many countries calling for a complete cease-fire. Netanyahu’s speech was not only an attempt to convince the Israeli public that Israel will continue fighting but also an attempt to push back on that pressure amidst widespread destruction and death in Gaza.
Israel cannot afford to finish the war without achieving both of the goals.
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“Israel cannot afford to finish the war without achieving both of the goals,” said Dr. Shay Har-Zvi, head of the International and Middle Eastern Arenas at the Institute for Policy and Strategy at Reichman University. “Returning the hostages alive is Israel’s moral obligation, part of its national ethos, and toppling Hamas has widespread strategic implications with a great effect on Israel’s national security.”
According to the Hamas-run Health Ministry, more than 21,600 Palestinians have been killed in Israel’s offensive that began after the terrorist organization launched a surprise attack on the country on October 7. The Hamas attack was unprecedented in scale, resulting in the murder of over 1,200 Israelis and the abduction of approximately 250 people, half of whom have been released already. Since the beginning of the Israeli ground offensive, approximately 170 soldiers have been killed in the Gaza Strip.
Since Hamas violently took over Gaza in 2007, it has been building its military capabilities. A terrorist organization dedicated to the destruction of Israel, it has fought numerous wars with Israel throughout the years. However, Hamas’ success in capturing so many hostages coupled with the large-scale attack it launched against Israel makes the current conflict unlike any other confrontation between the two sides. Unlike past wars, this one has also been unprecedented in terms of Israel’s response. The ground operation has been the longest so far and the destruction incomparable to any previous war.
Prior to the attack, the Israeli government and defense establishment knew of Hamas’ capabilities, some of which include a large rocket arsenal and a sizeable tunnel infrastructure from which the organization conducts most of its operations. However, throughout the years, Israeli governments have avoided dealing with the problem. Also, the Israeli public has a traditionally low threshold of tolerance toward losses amongst its soldiers. With blanket mandatory conscription for most Israelis above the age of 18, the death of every soldier is marked in Israel with collective mourning.
October 7 was a wake-up call for many in Israel who refused to continue with complacency toward Hamas’ military empowerment.
“It seems this time, there is a willingness in society to pay a heavy price,” Neiger told The Media Line. “But the credit people are giving is not endless.”
Polls have shown widespread support within the Israeli public for the war against Hamas.
“There is an understanding that the strategic objectives are so important that Israel has no choice but to suffer these losses,” said Har-Zvi.
However, as the Israeli death toll mounts, the tide could change. Last weekend, when a total of 15 Israeli soldiers were killed in Gaza, voices of criticism emerged. Some questioned whether Israel was scaling down its use of firepower in Gaza in response to international pressure at the expense of soldiers’ safety. Senior military officers denied this.
Neiger also noted that the Israeli public is largely unexposed to the amount of destruction in the Gaza Strip. Israeli media outlets devote little screen time to the results of Israel’s military offensive.
The combination of mounting international pressure on Israel and the possibility that the public will become less tolerant of the growing death toll amongst its troops could lead to a speedier conclusion of the military operation. It could also change the narrative of the war and its goals.
“The understanding that the ground operation may need to end soon could lead to more realistic goals,” said Neiger.
Time is especially critical for the 129 Israeli hostages that remain in captivity. The testimonies of hostages released have uncovered a grim reality for those being held hostage. As women, children, and elderly people are being held by Hamas, the reports of negotiations between Israel and Hamas have so far left little room for optimism. Netanyahu said the effort was ongoing.
“We are not relenting, even for a moment, in our efforts to bring our hostages back home, even at this very moment,” he said Saturday.
Family members of the hostages have raised concern that Israel’s intense military operation puts their loved ones at risk. Netanyahu and his cabinet, alongside military officers, maintain it is that same pressure that led Hamas to agree to the first round of hostages being released. There has been public pressure in Israel to push for a deal with Hamas to secure their release. However, the negotiations are complex and dependent on a wide range of factors, some of which are not in Israel’s control.
“The hostage release needs to be achieved as soon as possible; every day that passes can be fateful,” Har-Zvi told The Media Line. “There is more breathing room regarding the second goal of toppling of Hamas.”
According to Har-Zvi, so long as Israel has critical American support, Israel has more time to achieve its goal. Over the weekend, the US approved a second emergency sale of weapons to Israel. In its approval, the White House emphasized the need for Israel to make sure it minimizes the number of civilian casualties in the Gaza Strip and to continue to facilitate the entrance of humanitarian aid into Gaza at an increased pace.
Last week, the US abstained from a UN Security Council calling for increased humanitarian aid for Gaza without calling for an immediate cease-fire.
“There are gaps between Israel and the US, but not on a strategic level, in which the Americans fully back Israel’s two objectives and the negative ramifications of them not being reached,” said Har-Zvi. “Humanitarian aid is critical to the US Administration as is the way Israel conducts the war. The US is waiting for Israel to advance to the next phase of the fighting, which will be less aggressive.”
The major difference between Washington and Jerusalem is how they see Gaza after the war is over. While the US would like to see the Palestinian Authority involved, the current Israeli government rejects the notion completely.
As Israel continues to operate in Gaza, it will be hard-pressed to crush Hamas’ ideology. That is a goal that, if attainable, could take years, which Israel does not have. Crushing Hamas’ military abilities and removing it from governing Gaza could be reachable but requires continued American support and Israeli public approval.
