‘It Could Happen Tomorrow or in the Next 5 Minutes’: Israeli Company Offers Solution With Seismic Detection Algorithm
Scientists warn of potential major earthquake amid prolonged tensions
As Israel enters its tenth month of conflict, the nation faces another looming threat: earthquakes. Periodic tremors serve as a reminder of the ever-moving tectonic plates beneath the region.
On Sunday night, July 21, at around 11:15 p.m., an earthquake with a magnitude of approximately 3.7 on the Richter scale struck near the Dead Sea, according to the National Geological Institute. The tremor was also felt in Jerusalem, Beersheba, Dimona, and Eilat, with the Dead Sea identified as the epicenter.
While recent seismic events have been relatively minor, scientists caution that a massive earthquake could cause significant destruction in the near future.
Benny Sasson, co-founder and CEO of Seismic AI, an Israeli company behind a globally implemented early alert earthquake system, warned that Israel is on the brink of experiencing a major threat.
“Significant seismic events usually follow a cycle. The last major one occurred in Jericho in 1927. Given this 100-year cycle, we’re due for another anytime now. A massive earthquake, with a magnitude of 6 or 7, would have dramatic effects in Israel, particularly along the Jordan Valley, reaching all the way to Jerusalem. It could also impact Haifa, Tel Aviv, and other areas. The exact timing is unpredictable—it could happen tomorrow or in the next five minutes,” Sasson shared with The Media Line.
Michael Tsesarsky, associate professor at Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, confirmed Sasson’s concerns.
(SeismicAI)
“Our region experiences a major earthquake about once every century. Another example is the one that occurred in 1837. Given Israel’s dense population, any rupture along the fault, except in the sparsely populated Arava Valley, would have a substantial impact,” he told The Media Line.
Tsesarsky explained that Israel is located on a tectonic border. The Dead Sea Fault marks the boundary between the Arabian plate and the Sinai-African plate. These tectonic plates move past each other, generating friction. Occasionally, this friction causes the fault to rupture when it can no longer contain the energy, and then the cycle renews itself.
“The areas with the highest hazard and risk, and the potential for great devastation, are in the northern part of Israel, specifically the cities of Tiberias, Tzfat, Kiryat Shmona, and Beit Jan. These were highlighted in the latest report on earthquake preparedness,” shared Tsesarsky.
He further explained that these cities are particularly vulnerable because many of their buildings are old and were not constructed according to Israel’s seismic code, which has been in place since 1980. Without government intervention, these buildings remain at high risk.
“The research, although still debated, suggests that a major earthquake in Israel could range between a magnitude of 6.5 to 7.5. Some experts speculate it could be as high as 8, but there’s insufficient evidence to support such a high magnitude,” Tsesarsky said. “Historically, the strongest earthquake, estimated to be around 7.5, occurred in the 13th century. An earthquake of magnitude 8 is theoretically possible, but the probability is low due to the many factors that would need to align,” he added.
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He continued to explain that the Israeli seismic code, which addresses the need for buildings to withstand significant seismic loading, considers a magnitude of 7.5 as a major scenario.
Buildings constructed according to this code should be capable of sustaining such an event. However, many buildings in Israel predate the seismic code introduced in 1980. According to a report from the Ministry of Housing, approximately 800,000 apartments were built before the establishment of this code, particularly in northern Israel near the Dead Sea Fault.
“Buildings constructed according to this code should be capable of sustaining such an event. However, many buildings in Israel predate the seismic code introduced in 1980. According to a report from the Ministry of Housing, approximately 800,000 apartments were built before the establishment of this code, particularly in northern Israel near the Dead Sea Fault,” Tsesarsky noted.
If an earthquake of around magnitude 7 were to occur, buildings constructed before 1980 in the high-risk areas would likely suffer severe damage, with many potentially collapsing, according to Tsesarsky. He emphasized the urgent need for the government to take more actions to prepare the country for this scenario.
Sasson said that Seismic AI is collaborating with the Israeli Geological Survey and receiving data from them. The team aims to integrate the company’s unique solution into Israel’s national framework.
“We are the only commercial company offering a solution that can compete with the national system. While there are other more localized solutions, our offering stands out in its capability and scope,” he explained.
Sasson shared that the alert system is a regional solution based on a concept previously reserved for government-operated systems like those in Japan, the US, and Israel.
“What sets us apart is our proprietary seismic algorithm, allowing us to operate almost anywhere in the world right out of the box. Typically, other solutions take years to become operational, whereas we require just a few weeks,” he said.
(SeismicAI)
“The system created by the team can accurately and reliably warn against seismic events originating from the sea, a capability unmatched by other solutions. Moreover, it can function effectively in regions without an advanced or dense network of seismic stations,” Sasson added.
He explained that the real value the company brings is in how it translates the information from the sensors.
“The equipment itself is basic—it can detect various movements but cannot distinguish their causes. It might sense a truck passing by, a door slamming, or an actual earthquake. Our system’s intelligence lies in distinguishing between man-made and seismic activities. Once seismic activity is identified, we analyze it to determine the earthquake’s location, or hypocenter, and measure its magnitude,” Sasson added.
“We analyze the impact of offshore earthquakes on nearby cities. If the impact exceeds a certain threshold, we issue an alert to warn people, infrastructure, and facilities, and early warnings enable precautionary measures like ducking and covering. We can also shut down electricity and reduce pipe pressure to prevent explosions, fires, and environmental damage,” Sasson said.
Apart from working in Israel, Seismic AI is deploying networks in Italy and Mexico.
Antisemitism and the conflict in Gaza significantly impact our work, forcing us to conceal our Israeli identity. We navigate this by operating through our subsidiaries worldwide. This situation has made fundraising more challenging globally, though not in Israel.
“Antisemitism and the conflict in Gaza significantly impact our work, forcing us to conceal our Israeli identity. We navigate this by operating through our subsidiaries worldwide. This situation has made fundraising more challenging globally, though not in Israel,” shared Sasson.
Tsesarsky cautioned that when an earthquake happens, people should be prepared for a period of disruption.
“It could last several weeks or longer until systems are restored, as there will be a lot of pressure on hospitals and possible breaks in supply chains. In terms of personal safety, if you’re in a place where you can evacuate to the open within seconds, do so. Those on higher floors should go to bomb shelters or other safe places. If you can evacuate in a matter of seconds, go outside. Otherwise, take cover under a sturdy table or similar, as these places can provide air pockets if the building collapses. Always aim for the safest place within immediate reach,” he explained.
Emphasizing the importance of earthquake preparedness, Tsesarsky said: “Seismic AI is doing its best with their early warning system, but it’s important to remember that this system only provides alerts once an earthquake occurs. Preparedness is crucial and goes beyond just warnings.”
This includes retrofitting buildings and preparing all necessary authorities, both civil and military, to handle a major seismic event.
An earthquake can happen at any moment, and currently, there is no reliable method anywhere in the world to predict the exact location, time, and magnitude of an earthquake.
“An earthquake can happen at any moment, and currently, there is no reliable method anywhere in the world to predict the exact location, time, and magnitude of an earthquake,” concluded Tsesarsky.
