‘It’s a House of Cards’: Analysts Warn Pakistan Over Iran Ties
As Pakistani Prime Minister Sharif embraces Iran’s nuclear program, experts caution that growing too close to Tehran may strain ties with the US and Gulf partners
[Islamabad] Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif concluded a pivotal four-nation diplomatic tour to Iran, Turkey, Azerbaijan, and Tajikistan last week, reaffirming his country’s commitment to strengthening regional partnerships and asserting its role as a constructive and responsible actor amid evolving regional dynamics and heightened tensions with neighboring India.
Sharif landed back in Islamabad at midnight on Saturday, marking the end of a strategically important visit aimed at expanding political, economic, and security cooperation across the region.
He was accompanied by Chief of the Army Staff Field Marshal Asim Munir and Deputy Prime Minister Ishaq Dar, signaling the strategic weight Pakistan attaches to this outreach.
The weeklong mission sought to advance economic collaboration, increase diplomatic engagement, and build stronger security and counterterrorism alliances with key regional powers.
During the trip, Sharif held high-level meetings with the leadership of each country, aiming to recalibrate Pakistan’s regional strategy through shared development goals and coordinated diplomacy.
Both Turkey and Azerbaijan had voiced support for Pakistan during the recent conflict, underscoring a sense of solidarity among Muslim-majority nations. In response to Ankara and Baku’s expressions of support, calls in India for boycotting Turkish and Azerbaijani products reflected broader regional sensitivities.
The tour began in Turkey on May 25. In Istanbul, Sharif met with President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, reaffirming the strategic partnership between the two nations. Discussions included defense production, intelligence-sharing, and infrastructure development.
Turkish officials reiterated Ankara’s support for Pakistan on core regional concerns, particularly the Kashmir issue. Both leaders pledged closer cooperation in counterterrorism.
Defense collaboration between the two countries has fostered deeper strategic trust, with joint initiatives in military training, technology transfer, and co-production of defense equipment under consideration.
Sharif’s stop in Iran was arguably the most consequential. During the ongoing conflict with India, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi had reportedly visited Islamabad.
Munir joined Sharif in meetings with Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and President Masoud Pezeshkian, underscoring the importance of Islamabad’s political and military engagement with Tehran.
Talks focused on enhancing border security, revitalizing the Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline, and boosting trade. Both sides also agreed to deepen coordination against cross-border insurgency and promote development in border regions.
At a joint press conference with Pezeshkian, Sharif publicly affirmed Pakistan’s support for Iran’s right to pursue peaceful nuclear energy.
He stated that all sovereign states are entitled to civilian nuclear capabilities under international law and cited Pakistan’s own program, developed under International Atomic Energy Agency oversight, as a responsible model.
In Azerbaijan, Sharif secured commitments of $2 billion in investment across Pakistan’s energy, mining, and infrastructure sectors.
The two sides signed agreements to expand liquefied natural gas imports, deepen energy cooperation, and speed up pipeline construction.
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Sharif also participated in the inaugural Pakistan-Turkey-Azerbaijan Trilateral Summit, held on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit in Astana, Kazakhstan.
Speaking at the trilateral meeting, Sharif called for a peaceful resolution to the Kashmir and water disputes with India and reiterated Pakistan’s support for an independent Palestinian state with Jerusalem as its capital.
His final stop was in Dushanbe, where he met with Tajik President Emomali Rahmon to discuss enhanced cooperation in energy, trade, connectivity, and water resource management.
The prime minister also attended a high-level international conference on glacier preservation held in Dushanbe on Friday.
He also addressed a high-level conference on glacier preservation, warning of the dire effects of climate change on Pakistan and reaffirming his government’s commitment to environmental protection.
In light of Sharif’s public support for Iran’s nuclear program, The Media Line consulted geopolitical experts about the implications of the tour.
Given Iran was the first to recognize Pakistan, the United States understands the special ties between the two countries.
Jillian Butler, a San Diego-based geopolitical analyst, told The Media Line, “given Iran was the first to recognize Pakistan, the United States understands the special ties between the two countries.” She added that Washington is aware of Iran’s call for Pakistani restraint during the recent conflict with India.
“However, with President Donald Trump’s pursuit of a peace deal and the recent United Nations report on Iran’s uranium stockpiling, any partnerships with Iran will face heightened scrutiny,” she said.
Butler argued that although support for Iran’s nuclear program may limit future cooperation, regional instability makes such alignment unlikely. She cited concerns over Chinese expansion, terrorism, and India-Pakistan tensions.
She noted that while US-Pakistan ties have fluctuated, South Asia remains vital to American security interests. “It is imperative for the United States to have strong partners in the region,” she said.
I view this engagement as a reaffirmation of the longstanding strategic partnership between the United States and Pakistan, but with a grain of salt, given the occasionally tense relationship between the two nations.
“I view this engagement as a reaffirmation of the longstanding strategic partnership between the United States and Pakistan,” she concluded, “but with a grain of salt, given the occasionally tense relationship between the two nations.”
With the threat of escalation from India, Butler said Islamabad needs dependable allies and highlighted the importance of intelligence-sharing to counter armed groups.
She concluded that Sharif’s trip reflects Pakistan’s aim to preserve regional balance while expanding diplomatic ties as American interest in South Asia grows.
Syed Khalid Muhammed, executive director of the consultancy CommandEleven, told The Media Line that the deepening alliance between Pakistan, Turkey, and Azerbaijan could be viewed as a challenge to India.
He identified Iran as the “wild card,” citing its long-standing ties with India and Afghanistan, which often complicate its relationship with Pakistan.
Muhammed added that under growing US and Israeli pressure over its nuclear program, Iran is searching for new allies and may be recalibrating its regional posture.
He stressed that Tehran has historically supported insurgent groups like the Balochistan Liberation Army, but rumors now suggest Iran is willing to crack down on anti-Pakistan elements and dismantle Indian intelligence networks in Chabahar.
Still, Muhammed warned that skepticism in Islamabad remains high, as Iran’s economic and strategic ties with New Delhi are difficult to sever.
Responding to a question about Pakistan’s backing of Iran’s nuclear program, Muhammed said, “Sharif’s statement puts Pakistan in a difficult position. While this is something that China will appreciate and may draw Pakistan closer to Russia, it has the potential to put distance between Pakistan and the US—a relationship that has never gained traction outside of conflicts in Afghanistan.”
It’s a house of cards that Pakistan needs to be careful with, especially with India looking to restart an offensive. Public opinion will not favor Pakistan if it chooses to stand with Iran at this juncture.
He concluded, “It’s a house of cards that Pakistan needs to be careful with, especially with India looking to restart an offensive. Public opinion will not favor Pakistan if it chooses to stand with Iran at this juncture.”
Aimen Jamil, a strategic affairs analyst based in Islamabad, told The Media Line that by engaging Turkey and Azerbaijan—both of which voiced support for Pakistan during the recent crisis—Sharif reaffirmed Islamabad’s trilateral strategy rooted in defense, economic, and political alignment.
She said Sharif’s endorsement of Iran’s civilian nuclear program serves a dual purpose: signaling regional assertiveness and advocating nuclear parity under international frameworks.
Jamil added that army chief Munir’s meeting with Iran’s Chief of General Staff Maj. Gen. Mohammad Bagheri signals a transition from managing short-term frictions to cultivating long-term strategic cooperation.
Yet India’s efforts to portray Pakistan as a haven for terrorists still pose reputational challenges on the world stage, she cautioned.
Simultaneously, she noted, Islamabad’s warming ties with Iran may create tension with Gulf allies and the US, which remain critical to Pakistan’s economic and geopolitical balance.
Sharif’s regional outreach, Jamil concluded, is more than routine diplomacy. It is a strategic gambit to reposition Pakistan within a highly competitive and fragmented geopolitical environment.
