Lebanon’s Diplomatic Gamble: Aoun’s Saudi Visit and the Future of the Region
This visit signaled a strategic shift in alliances, focusing on Hezbollah’s influence, Israel’s withdrawal, and Lebanon’s economic recovery, highlighting Riyadh’s growing role in the region
Lebanese President Joseph Aoun’s recent visit to Saudi Arabia has sparked discussions on Lebanon’s shifting political landscape, economic recovery, and the evolving balance of power in the region. With Saudi Arabia asserting itself as a key diplomatic player under the Trump administration, Aoun’s outreach to Riyadh is seen as a strategic effort to secure Lebanon’s stability amid ongoing regional tensions.
The Meeting: Political Backing and Economic Prospects
Aoun’s visit, though brief, carried significant symbolic weight. “The visit lasted only a few hours, but the important part is that he met with the country’s leaders,” Imad Harb, director of research and analysis at Arab Center Washington, DC, told The Media Line.
Discussions in Riyadh reportedly focused on two main areas: curbing Hezbollah’s influence and advocating for an Israeli withdrawal from Lebanese territory. Lebanese political analyst Azzam Tomeh elaborated on Saudi Arabia’s role in Aoun’s diplomacy. “Aoun’s alignment with Saudi Arabia provides him with strong backing and cover in dealings with the US, Israel, Russia, and, most importantly, Iran,” he told The Media Line.
Lebanon is in urgent need of foreign investment to rebuild its infrastructure, especially after years of conflict. “Saudi investments are crucial for Lebanon,” Harb said. “Investments in government bonds, projects, and reconstruction efforts are all essential.”
No country will send money to Lebanon unless it can guarantee that the funds will not be taken by Hezbollah in any way
However, financial aid comes with conditions. “No country will send money to Lebanon unless it can guarantee that the funds will not be taken by Hezbollah in any way,” Tomeh added.
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Hezbollah’s Role and the Israeli Factor
One of the most pressing topics during Aoun’s visit was Hezbollah’s future in Lebanon. While the Iranian-backed group has struggled financially and faces changing regional dynamics, it still wields political influence. “They hold seats in parliament, have a role in the government, and maintain influence in the bureaucracy, but they are no longer the ones pulling the strings,” Harb explained, citing Hezbollah’s losses in its conflict with Israel.
Aoun also sought Saudi support in pressuring for a complete Israeli withdrawal from Lebanese territory—an ongoing demand with little prospect of success. “If Aoun is backed by the US, then Saudi Arabia’s entry into his support team strengthens his ability to negotiate with the US to enforce the Israeli withdrawal deal signed at the end of the war,” Tomeh said.
Israel remains at war with Lebanon and continues to operate as it pleases, even though the Lebanese army is in control of the south
Meanwhile, Arab attitudes toward Israel are evolving. “With Iran now sidelined from direct confrontation with Israel, the Palestinian issue is becoming an Arab cause even more than in the past,” Tomeh observed. Harb pointed to Israel’s continued military presence in Lebanon. “Israel remains at war with Lebanon and continues to operate as it pleases, even though the Lebanese army is in control of the south,” he said.
Lebanon’s Challenges and Regional Entanglements
Lebanon remains deeply entangled in regional conflicts, from the war in Syria to the ongoing Palestinian refugee crisis. “Lebanon is on the receiving end of a very difficult situation. Whether it stems from Israel, Syria, or broader geopolitical shifts, Lebanon continues to struggle,” Harb said.
The country also faces a severe economic strain due to its large refugee population. “Lebanon is hosting up to one and a half million Syrian refugees and about 200,000 Palestinian refugees, so the country is directly involved with other neighboring conflicts,” Harb added.
Despite discussions of neutrality, Lebanon remains vulnerable to external pressures. “Lebanon is not a zone of Turkish influence. Turkey views it as previously under Iran’s sphere and now as part of Saudi Arabia’s domain,” Tomeh said. Still, he warned that Lebanon’s neutrality does not guarantee protection from regional instability. “Even if Lebanon remains neutral, that doesn’t mean it will be spared. The country has always been tied to the fate of Syria and the Palestinian territories,” he said.
A Precarious Future
Aoun’s visit to Saudi Arabia signals an attempt to redefine Lebanon’s regional alliances and secure economic relief, but challenges remain. The Lebanese government must navigate its relationship with Hezbollah, manage Israeli threats, and address the economic fallout of ongoing crises.
Harb remains cautiously optimistic. “No matter how difficult the challenges are, if there is good governance and a democratic system that truly represents the people, Lebanon can emerge from these crises. Cooperation and effective diplomacy are key to resolving these issues,” he said.
If this conflict escalates further, Saudi Arabia would not oppose Turkey increasing its presence in Lebanon
Tomeh, however, sees a more complex reality. “If this conflict escalates further, Saudi Arabia would not oppose Turkey increasing its presence in Lebanon. It all depends on how severe the situation becomes,” he said.
For now, Lebanon’s future remains uncertain, caught between regional power struggles and internal divisions. What is clear, however, is that its political survival will depend on how it maneuvers these challenges in the months ahead.
