Lebanon’s Hizbullah Gains Ground in Public Approval Amid Conflict
Despite ongoing economic crises, Hizbullah’s contained tactics and calculated actions win it a boost in popularity across sectarian lines
[Beirut] In every corner of the Mediterranean Levant, life changed on October 7. In Lebanon, especially in the South, life has never been the same. The escalation of the war is a reality in the areas surrounding the border where Lebanese militia Hizbullah and the Israeli army have been fighting daily for more than 110 days.
Some 26 to 40 civilians have been killed in Israeli shelling, including children and journalists, and at least 176 Hizbullah fighters have died, too. On the other side of the border, 12 Israeli troops and six civilians have lost their lives. But, after nearly four months of fighting, one thing seems to have slightly come back to life in Lebanon: Hizbullah’s popularity.
Despite its support always being divided across sectarian lines, the polls of The Washington Institute show “a bump in approval of Hizbullah across the board from when last polled in November 2020.” Around 34% of Sunnis and 29% of Christians express a positive view of the Lebanese political party, but its biggest support comes from the Shia community with 93% of them sharing a positive opinion and 89% a “very positive” one. “Definitely the sentiment in the country, especially from the pro-Hizbullah camp and from the people that live in the south, is that Hizbullah is the entity that can protect them against Israeli attacks,” said Laury Haytayan, an oil and gas expert in the Middle East and North Africa.
Definitely the sentiment in the country, especially from the pro-Hizbullah camp and from the people that live in the south, is that Hizbullah is the entity that can protect them against Israeli attacks
Joseph Daher, a Syrian academic and researcher and author of Hizbullah: Political Economy of the Party of God, told the Media Line that “Hizbullah’s support hasn’t changed drastically.” “The people that were against Hizbullah before, such as the Lebanese forces or Kataeb Party [also known as the Phalanges], still are and they are accusing them of dragging Lebanon to the war,” Daher said.
They don’t have the same support as in the 2006 war, and even though they are supporting the Palestinian movement, they don’t want a war in Lebanon
Since October 8, Hizbullah has been attacking and responding to Israeli attacks daily, but its actions and its leader Hasan Nasrallah’s speeches show their lack of intention to join a full-scale war. “They don’t have the same support as in the 2006 war, and even though they are supporting the Palestinian movement, they don’t want a war in Lebanon,” Daher explained. “Hizbullah can still say without being massively involved in the war that they did something,” he told The Media Line.
“What Hizbullah is doing with Israel is very calculated,” said Haytayan. After three months of constant threats of possible escalation, including the killing of Hamas deputy chief Saleh al-Arouri in the suburbs of Beirut, the Lebanese militia has laid out its strategy. “Hizbullah is not going to fall into the trap of doing some unmeasured acts that could give Israel the opportunity to enter into Lebanese territories and create that buffer that Israel wants today,” she told The Media Line.
This strategy can bring some benefits to the political party which was suffering from a lack of legitimacy before the war on Gaza. By now, and the Israeli-Lebanon maritime deal proved it two years ago, “there won’t be any deal with Lebanon concerning the post-Israel-Hamas or Israel-Lebanon war that will not include Hizbullah,” said Haytayan. “Hizbullah is playing by the book and not going into adventurism because, at the same time, they are seeing the benefit of that with the Americans with whom they want to create the indirect and complicit partnership,” she told The Media Line.
“If the price to pay by Hizbullah for them to be able to get into a place where they will be more accepted by the Americans as being the ones in control of the country and not challenging them like before is to have some of its military leaders killed, they are ready to pay it in order to get more legitimacy from the US,” the Lebanese oil and gas expert added.
The gains of this contained strategy could not only be geopolitical but also on a national scale. “The support for Hizbullah has been diminishing since 2006,” said Daher. “The involvement of Hizbullah alongside the Syrian regime to defeat the uprising had a big blow on its support, and also during the 2019 uprising since it became the most important actor in Lebanon and considered responsible for the economical crisis as the rest of the political and economical class,” he told The Media Line.
But the war hasn’t changed the fact that Lebanon is suffering one of the worst economic crises in the whole world since 1850, according to the World Bank. That is why a slim majority of Lebanese, as shown by The Washington Institute poll, agrees that “right now, internal political and economic reform is more important for our country than any foreign policy issue, so we should stay out of foreign war.”
Whenever the Palestinian issue comes back, the population of the Middle East unites around the struggle against Israel, but a major change regarding Hizbullah’s view is very difficult since it is not only a Lebanese actor but a regional actor involved in many other countries and in collaboration with Hamas.
“Whenever the Palestinian issue comes back, the population of the Middle East unites around the struggle against Israel, but a major change regarding Hizbullah’s view is very difficult since it is not only a Lebanese actor but a regional actor involved in many other countries and in collaboration with Hamas,” concluded Daher.
