Middle East Shakeup: Israel and Saudi Arabia Contemplate a New Chapter
Amid looming Iranian threats, Saudi Arabia eyes normalization with Israel as part of a broader US defense pact
The undercurrents in the Middle East appear to be heralding a new era. The notion of normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia, previously unthinkable, might just be progressing. Three years after Israel normalized its relations with the United Arab Emirates, Morocco, and Bahrain as part of the Abraham Accords brokered by the United States, the region is poised for another, even greater, transformation.
Saudi Arabia is in the midst of negotiating an agreement with the US to normalize relations with Israel. In return, the Saudis will enter a US defense pact and get a green light, including aid, to develop its own civilian nuclear program. Saudi agreement to establishing relations with Israel will include Israeli concessions toward the Palestinians, but also the Jewish state agreeing to a Saudi nuclear program, albeit a civilian one.
Pushing the countries together is the looming Iranian nuclear threat. Earlier this year, through Chinese mediation, Saudi Arabia agreed to restore diplomatic relations with Iran. However, suspicion between the two remains, having Riyadh looking to secure itself with other international pacts.
For decades, Israel and Saudi Arabia have been hostile to each other. Staunch supporters of the Palestinians, the Saudis have shifted in recent years to a more pragmatic approach toward the Jewish state.
A civilian Saudi nuclear program will greatly improve its ability to develop nuclear weapons and will lead to a nuclear race in the region
With Israel believed to already possess military nuclear capabilities, the Iranian push for it in recent years, and the green light that Saudi Arabia likely will be granted to develop nuclear power, the region may be moving toward more peaceful relations between some of the countries but also a nuclear arms race in parallel.
“A civilian Saudi nuclear program will greatly improve its ability to develop nuclear weapons and will lead to a nuclear race in the region,” said Dr. Emmanuel Navon, a lecturer in diplomatic studies and political science studies at Tel Aviv University. “American agreement to this means they have come to terms with a nuclear Iran and nuclear proliferation in the area, also undermining Israel’s deterrence strategy.”
“We mustn’t forget, we are talking about two countries who were enemies until recently,” Navon added.
The Israeli defense establishment is reportedly divided on the matter, weighing the advantages of having relations with Saudi Arabia while acquiescing to nuclear proliferation in the Middle East, thus giving up its own, believed, nuclear supremacy.
Reports of the details of the talks between Saudi Arabia and the US have mentioned the possibility of a Saudi-US security treaty that could guarantee an American umbrella for the Middle Eastern regional power.
Calls in Israel have emerged for the consideration of a similar pact between Washington and Jerusalem.
“The idea in itself is not new,” said Professor Chuck Freilich, a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) and the author of a recent paper calling for such a treaty. “But the timing now is related to the regional changes.”
Talks between Iran and world powers regarding its nuclear program have been stalled for months. The US administration, led by President Joe Biden, has indicated it prefers solving the matter diplomatically, despite all the failed attempts to reach a negotiated settlement. Just recently the White House negotiated a prisoner swap with Tehran that also entailed unfreezing $6 billion. While this was meant to appease the Iranian regime, Tehran also barred inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency from accessing nuclear facilities in the country.
Both Israel and Saudi Arabia have been carefully watching developments.
In recent years, the US has taken a step back in its involvement in the Middle East. With the US taking a largely passive approach to civil strife in Syria, making a hasty and messy withdrawal from Afghanistan, and responding weakly to many belligerent Iranian actions in the region, America’s allies became increasingly concerned that the US would not be taking the extra mile for them, even as Russia and China made significant gains in the Middle East.
For Israel, the Abraham Accords, rapprochement with Turkey, and other moves were all part of a strategy to counter American absence. While there is no imminent threat, the guarantee of an American umbrella could ease Israel’s mind.
“Israel does not need such a treaty with the US at this point in time,” Freilich told The Media Line. “It needs it in case Iran will become a nuclear power and especially if there will be a multi-lateral nuclearization in the region—which will be a nightmare.”
The pact that Freilich and the INSS are suggesting has to do with only major and existential threats, leaving each country to act independently on other defense matters.
“Israel should insist on long-term American commitment vis-à-vis Iran,” Navon told The Media Line.
The political timing in both the US and Israel is also critical to understanding the whole picture.
President Biden is up for reelection and is keen to show foreign policy achievements, ones that would ameliorate America’s chronic Middle Eastern headache. The Abraham Accords, although praised by the Biden Administration, were an achievement of former US President Donald Trump. Peace between Saudi Arabia—arguably the most powerful Arab state in the world—and Israel would help President Biden outshine his predecessor and likely main political rival in the coming elections.
Normalization and security pacts would cement the US as a leading actor in the region
But also, for the US, a regional arrangement under its auspices would promote major foreign policy goals.
“Normalization and security pacts would cement the US as a leading actor in the region,” said Freilich. “But also, it would serve to push back China, which is a strategic goal for the US.”
For Netanyahu, it is difficult to imagine a more complex time. Caught between his own legal troubles with an ongoing corruption trial and an ultra-nationalist right-wing government that has put him at odds with the White House, a deal with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman could be the perfect diversion. But the price to pay for the deal in the form of major concessions to the Palestinians would put him on a collision course with leading members of his coalition who rule out any such notion. In addition, the contentious judicial reform his government embarked on several months ago has also marred relations with the US. It will likely have to be sacrificed in return for a Saudi deal and any kind of American security guarantees.
“Biden is looking to strong-arm Netanyahu to abandon his coalition partners through the normalization with Saudi Arabia,” said Navon. “In a scenario by which Netanyahu is also granted some sort of plea bargain, he will exit the political scene with a big diplomatic achievement.”
Netanyahu has so far shown no interest in exiting the political scene and the attorney general has also not indicated any real intention to offer Netanyahu a way out of his trial. The Israeli premier’s last election campaign came with a promise for peace with Saudi Arabia, a promise he is eager to deliver on.
Since the swearing-in of the current Netanyahu government almost a year ago, relations with Washington have deteriorated. Differences over the proposed judicial reform and the Palestinian issue have created a rift between the two countries, making it difficult to image cooperation on such a major issue.
“It really is surprising that the relations are perhaps at their lowest point ever, when the administration is not so keen to give Netanyahu and Israel such an achievement,” said Freilich. “But there might be unofficial understandings and demands of Israel regarding the judicial reform; it is hard to imagine the Americans will not put this on the table.”
There are many pieces of the puzzle to be put in place before such a major change becomes reality. The current convergence of interests could be fleeting, and any small shift in one piece could lead the whole puzzle to fall apart.
