Military Option in Iran Still Possible, Israel’s Defense Minister Says
Benny Gantz says Israel is keeping the military operation option open to delay Iran’s nuclear project. Experts claim it might be too late for that.
A good nuclear deal could delay Iran’s nuclear project, and so could an Israeli military operation attacking the country’s nuclear facilities, Israel’s Defense Minister Benny Gantz said Tuesday.
“A good agreement, which oversees all the vital points for Israel, could be very effective. However, I don’t see that happening right now,” Gantz said in an interview with Israeli journalist Alon Ben-David on stage at a conference sponsored by Israel’s Channel 13. When asked about the possibility of an Israeli military operation in Iran he said: “I discussed this with President Biden during his visit to Israel. He himself said that this is a viable option – as a last resort.”
Benny Gantz. (Wikimedia Commons)
A good agreement, which oversees all the vital points for Israel, could be very effective. However, I don’t see that happening right now
The discussion in Israel regarding solutions to Iran’s nuclear project is long and controversial. While some voices support going back to the nuclear deal that Iran signed in 2015 with the world powers, which allows the Islamic Republic to develop a nuclear infrastructure for civil purposes to a certain extent, others claim an agreement isn’t a solid enough guarantee to prevent Iran from developing a military nuclear capability.
“One of the obstacles with the military option is that it is much more complicated than past operations. Iran is different from Syria and Iraq, in the sense that it is not a one-time attack to destroy the whole project,” according to Professor Eyal Zisser, an expert on Iran and Israeli policy at Tel Aviv University. “It’ll be a much more complicated operation, and it’ll require a mass amount of air power,” he told The Media Line.
“However, one of the main differences is that, in this case, the other side has a strong retaliation ability. And this is the dilemma Israel is facing: Is it worth it to risk pilots and civilians when it’s unclear how much a military attack can delay the nuclear project?”
Zisser is not the only one to doubt the military option’s ability to stop Iran from acquiring a nuclear bomb.
In an article published in Time magazine on Monday, former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak wrote, “The reality is this: Both Israel and (for sure) the US can operate over the skies of Iran against this or that site or installation and destroy it. But once Iran is a de facto threshold nuclear state this kind of attack simply cannot delay the Iranians from turning nuclear. Indeed, under certain circumstances, it might accelerate their rush toward assembling that bomb, and provide them a measure of legitimacy on grounds of self-defense.”
Barak served as Israel’s prime minister over 10 years ago, when the option of a military operation was first presented in Israel.
But Barak, who was in the inner circle of decision-making at critical times, is also doubtful about Iran’s intention to actively use a nuclear weapon against Israel.
“However, when it comes to nuclear capability, bear in mind that creating a preliminary nuclear arsenal can take a decade or more. It becomes a potential existential threat to Israel only in the longer term,” he wrote.
Gantz’s confirmation that an Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities is still on the table comes after a series of explosions and accidents at Iranian nuclear plants and on nuclear infrastructure. Last week, Iranian media reported the discovery of what it said was a Mossad-related operational cell, allegedly in possession of explosives and with concrete plans to attack one of the country’s nuclear facilities.
“I think this policy of minor attacks through the years is proving itself,” Zisser analyzed. “On one hand, Israel has managed to create significant delays to the Iranian nuclear project. On the other hand, it kept good terms with the international community. This policy serves Israel well, it seems.”
Statements like Gantz’s interview are not meant only for a domestic audience. Iranian media was quick to report on Gantz’s new statements, with headlines ranging from “Israeli minister of war threatening Iran,” to “The Israeli military not ready for war.”
I think this policy of minor attacks through the years is proving itself. On one hand, Israel has managed to create significant delays to the Iranian nuclear project. On the other hand, it kept good terms with the international community. This policy serves Israel well, it seems.
Dr. Thamar E. Gindin, an expert on Iran at the University of Haifa’s Ezri Center for Iran & Persian Gulf Studies and host of the Enriched Iranium podcast, told The Media Line that when it comes to public opinion in Iran on the nuclear issue, “Israel isn’t conceived as the main threat to Iran’s security.”
“Saudi Arabia is seen as a much bigger and more immediate threat, while Israel has a rather remote connotation. Iranians who support the nuclear project will usually explain that it is either a way to deter Saudi Arabia from attacking them or a way to become a more immune, stronger regional force. It’s not a common conception to see the nuclear project as a doomsday weapon against Israel,” she added.
Gindin also said that, in the mainstream Iranian community, “Most people in Iran want to go back to the nuclear deal. Not because they’re too keen on details, [but] simply because lifting the sanctions will improve the Iranian economy very fast.”
“When it comes to conditions of going back to the negotiating table, Iran makes at least one valid point,” Gindin said, adding that: “It was the US who broke the deal, and now Iran is required to go back to it with no guarantee to be rewarded for it. In that sense they’re right – they didn’t start this.”
Former US President Donald Trump decided to exit the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, the previous nuclear deal with Iran, in 2020. Following this decision, the US reimposed sanctions on Iran’s economy and banking services, significantly raising the cost of living in the Islamic Republic.
