‘No Single Person Can Be Eliminated To End This’: The Complexity of Defeating Hamas

Israel's war on Hamas seeks to dismantle its leadership, and the fate of key figures like Marwan Issa remains uncertain

Almost a week after an Israeli airstrike targeted a top Hamas member in the Gaza Strip, his fate is unclear, as is the fate of much of the terrorist organization’s senior leadership. In the six months of Israel’s war on Hamas, it still has inroads to make toward the goal it set out of toppling Hamas and obliterating its leaders and military commanders.

Marwan Issa, who is believed to be under the rubble in the center of the Gaza Strip, is the second-in-command in Hamas’ military wing, all of which is based in the territory, as opposed to the political leadership currently situated in Qatar.

If his death is confirmed, Issa will be the most senior Hamas member to have been killed in Israel’s latest war on Hamas. The war, which began with a surprise Hamas offensive on Israel on October 7, 2023, has taken a devastating toll on the Gaza Strip. Israel hopes to eliminate Hamas and its leadership, leaving the territory to be ruled by an entity less hostile to the Jewish state.

Hamas’ attack stunned Israel, as thousands of its terrorists stormed its border on an early Jewish holiday morning almost half a year ago. In the onslaught, approximately 1,200 Israelis were killed, and thousands were injured. Over 250 people were kidnapped by Hamas and taken into captivity in Gaza. One hundred twenty-three of them have been released. The fate of the others remains unknown, with many of them believed to be dead.

In response, Israel launched a war against Hamas. Vowing to destroy the organization and free the hostages, the Israeli leadership said the war effort would be a long one. The search for Hamas’ senior leadership began on the first day. According to the Hamas-run health ministry in Gaza, over 30,000 Palestinians have been killed as a result of Israel’s offensive, with over twice the number of injured. Hamas has not disclosed how many of its ranks have been killed in the confrontation. The Israeli Defense Forces says it has killed approximately 9,000 terrorists and around 20 senior commanders.

“It was clear from the beginning, as soon as the details of Hamas’ murderous attack emerged, that this would be a very long battle because Israel will not be able to stay silent on such an event,” said Yohanan Tzoreff, a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies. “Israel has to eliminate Hamas’ military power, and this can take time because the nature of such organizations is not to surrender quickly.”

According to Tzoreff, the fighting could last well over a year.

“Hamas’ leadership is counting on international pressure applied to Israel, and they might be hoping for assistance from the Arab world,” he added.

In addition to Marwan Issa, who may not have survived the Israeli assassination attempt over the weekend, Israel has already killed Ahmed Randour, who commanded Hamas forces in the northern part of Gaza, and Ayman Nofal, commander of Hamas’ central Gaza brigades, in addition to other senior field commanders. Saleh Arouri, the second-in-command in Hamas’ political wing, was killed by a drone strike in Lebanon in January. Earlier this week, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu confirmed Israel was behind the assassination.

“Many members of the political wing leadership in Gaza have been eliminated,” said Shaul Bartal, a research associate at the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies. “Some of these figures are founding members of Hamas, people who have been part of this conflict for years.”

Arouri’s replacement is Zaher Jabarin, Hamas’ money man—in charge of funding the organization’s terrorist activities.

“He pales next to Arouri and has far less prestige,” Bartal told The Media Line. “Some of these people, who have a lot of operational experience and knowledge, cannot be easily replaced overnight.”

“Most of the senior leadership is still in place and continues to lead, albeit in difficult conditions,” Tzoreff told The Media Line.

Hamas offensive began with a massive barrage of rockets toward Israel, which continued in the first weeks of the war. According to the IDF, a total of 9000 rockets have been fired from Gaza since the beginning of the fighting. What started as hundreds of rockets being fired daily has now become a slow trickle of rockets from the Gaza Strip.

“There is a huge gap between how the war started in terms of rocket fire and where it is now,” said Tzoreff, who attributes part of this to the removal of Hamas senior commanders. “Also, the fighting in areas in which the IDF has gained control is almost non-existent and is akin to individual guerilla warfare.”

“It is clear that there is no longer an organized fighting force in these areas,” he added. The war has made it difficult for Hamas to replace these commanders. The motivation is there, but they have been weakened.”

For decades, Israel has assassinated senior members of terrorist organizations. In recent years, it has largely refrained from targeting Hamas’ military leadership in Gaza as part of its policy to contain the conflict and keep conflict with the territory to a minimum. Exceptions to the policy resulted in several days of a flare-up, which was then wrapped up only to return to the status quo that proved unsustainable on October 7.

Netanyahu and senior IDF officials vowed to uproot Hamas and operate throughout the Gaza Strip as part of that effort. Remaining and currently on hold is an IDF operation in the southern Gaza city of Rafah. Rafah borders both Egypt and Israel and is currently the host of almost 2 million Gaza residents who have been displaced as a result of the war. It is also believed to be the hideout of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar and other senior Hamas commanders, including Sinwar’s brother Mohammed. These leading figures are probably hiding in the elaborate tunnel network Hamas constructed and cultivated over the years – for this very purpose. In addition, Sinwar is believed to be huddled with at least some of the Israeli hostages, using them as shields from a possible Israeli attack.

“There is a strong connection between the hostages and the elimination of Hamas’ leadership,” said Tzoreff. “It influences the amount of force that Israel can use against Hamas. Without the presence of the hostages, the operation would be long over as it could have been fast and much more aggressive.”

Israel’s manhunt is now focusing on Yahya Sinwar, his brother, who is considered his right-hand man. Mohammed Deif is also in hiding, as Israel would like to see him dead after several failed attempts at assassinating him. Legendary for his ability to survive these attempts, Deif is the commander of Hamas’ military wing. All of these Hamas members and others are believed to have been instrumental in planning the October 7 attack on Israel.

“It is important to emphasize that assassinating just one of these has minimal contribution other than temporarily freezing the operations of that individual,” said Bartal. “A series of assassinations can put an end to the war.”

Between 2003 and 2004, Israel embarked on a campaign of targeted killings in an attempt to root out Hamas’ leadership in Gaza. The success saw the eventual end of the second Palestinian uprising, the Intifada. This time around, Israel has vowed to obliterate Hamas in Gaza, but the organization’s presence from the West Bank to Turkey, Syria, Lebanon, and Qatar.

“History shows us that the assassination of the senior leadership of Islamic organizations leads to a temporary relief, but in the end, there is a renewal of the ranks,” Bartal explained. “Hamas’s organizational structure is highly decentralized. There is no single person that can be eliminated to end this, and therefore, only a major series of assassinations could lead Israel to some sort of strategic victory.”