One Year Out, Jailed Imran Khan Is Pakistan’s Choice; Repression Could Halt Comeback

Islamabad is intent to keep Imran Khan behind bars until 2029, despite overwhelming popular support for the ousted prime minister

[Islamabad] One year has passed since Imran Khan, Pakistan’s former prime minister, was jailed. Khan’s initial conviction was suspended and he was acquitted in several other cases, yet the controversial figure remains behind bars.

Khan, a cricket legend turned politician, served as Pakistan’s prime minister from August 2018 to April 2022, when a no-confidence vote in Parliament brought by the opposition ousted him from power.

Despite facing severe harassment by the state after his removal, Khan emerged as the country’s most powerful and popular opposition figure. In the February 2024 general elections, his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party was the country’s leading political force, but government repression and alleged rigging stopped PTI from gaining a majority in Parliament.

In May 2023, Khan was arrested by a large group of police officers and members of the paramilitary Pakistan Rangers, sparking riots across the country. Several days after the arrest, the Supreme Court declared Khan’s arrest and detention to be illegal and ordered his release.

Months later, in August 2023, Khan was found guilty of illegally buying and selling state gifts. An Islamabad session court sentenced him to three years in prison. Just three days after the guilty verdict, the Election Commission of Pakistan disqualified Khan from holding public office for five years.

PTI members pledged to continue Khan’s mission in his absence. In the run-up to the February 2024 general elections, PTI candidates faced arrest, torture, and intimidation. Authorities disrupted PTI campaign rallies and forbade the party from using its iconic cricket bat ballot symbol—a crucial piece of imagery in a country that is 40% illiterate and uses these pictograms to identify parties. PTI candidates were forced to run as independents, each under a separate symbol. 

Days before the February 8 election, Khan was convicted in three additional cases and sentenced to 10, 14, and seven years, respectively.

Numerous additional cases were filed against him, with allegations including treason, illicit marriage, inciting anti-state violence, and vandalism of military and state properties. Khan has consistently denied any wrongdoing and maintained his innocence. 

In July 2024, the Working Group on Arbitrary Detention, which reports to the UN Human Rights Council, called for the immediate and unconditional release of Khan, arguing that his imprisonment was arbitrary and in violation of international law.

The imprisonment of the 71-year-old former Pakistani leader contravenes at least a dozen articles of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights and the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights

“The imprisonment of the 71-year-old former Pakistani leader contravenes at least a dozen articles of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights and the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights,” the working group wrote. 

The current Pakistani government, led by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s Pakistan Muslim League-N (PML-N), recently indicated its intention to keep Khan in prison through 2029, citing concerns about “economic stability.”

Khan’s release could lead to increased protests and unrest, which the country cannot afford

Federal Planning and Development Minister Ahsan Iqbal told reporters in Islamabad that “many believe Pakistan can only advance if Khan remains jailed for five years.”

“Khan’s release could lead to increased protests and unrest, which the country cannot afford,” he warned.

Political experts say that the past year has brought significant changes for Khan’s PTI. Many new faces, particularly lawyers, have emerged as party leaders, and several senior leaders have faced legal challenges.

In Pakistan, most major political parties tend to center around one prominent leader. That dynamic holds across PTI, PML-N, and the Pakistan People’s Party. 

Khan’s influence over PTI supporters was clear during the February general elections. Despite Khan’s incarceration and the allegations he faced, supporters continued to show up. They also fiercely rejected leaders who abandoned Khan and ran for office on their own. 

Continued support for Khan and his party surprised influential circles in Pakistan as well as politicians around the world. US politicians in particular are struggling to make sense of what Khan’s enduring support in Pakistan means for US-Pakistan relations.

Noureen Akhtar, a policy consultant at the Islamabad Policy Research Institute, told The Media Line that continued support for Khan is proof of the deep bond he formed with his backers. 

“Due to this dynamic, Pakistani decision-makers are compelled to carefully balance political sentiments with the pursuit of institutional goals,” she said.

Akhtar said that US politicians have varying stances on Khan. Some believe that his leadership could increase democracy in Pakistan and reduce military interference in politics, she said, while others are concerned about his anti-American worldview. 

Regardless of their individual opinions on Khan, American politicians are watching the situation in Pakistan closely, given the delicacy of the situation and the potential implications. 

“The solution to Khan’s charges depends on judicial proceedings, Pakistan’s military position, and global political coordinates, involving a balanced combination of judicial relations, public demonstrations, and international diplomatic actions,” Akhtar said.

Policymakers in Pakistan understand how hard it will be to get the populace to support someone other than Khan this time

Azeem Khalid, a New York-based assistant professor of international relations at COMSATS University Islamabad, said that Pakistanis have overwhelmingly rallied around Khan despite government repression and censorship. 

“Policymakers in Pakistan understand how hard it will be to get the populace to support someone other than Khan this time,” he told The Media Line. “But those in positions of authority follow their own set of rules and strategies, and they are still committed to keeping the former prime minister behind bars.”

He said that Khan’s continued imprisonment has increased social divisions in Pakistan, with “possibly dire” implications for Pakistan’s society, economy, and politics. 

“The key to addressing the political and economic unrest in Pakistan is to establish a fair democratic system,” Khalid said. He called on policymakers to address the issues championed by Khan and conduct free and fair elections.

“Achieving this ideal scenario seems unlikely in the current political climate of Islamabad,” he noted.

Adeeb Uz Zaman Safvi, a Karachi-based political analyst critical of US policy in South Asia, told The Media Line that Khan’s tenure showed the promise of an independent Pakistani foreign policy. 

“From the US perspective, Pakistan’s growing strength and autonomy under Khan challenged US interests regionally and globally,” he said. 

He accused the US of being behind Khan’s ousting, saying, “Khan’s rise was seen as a threat to US strategic goals.” Upon seeing the widespread support for Khan in the 2024 elections, the US was forced to acknowledge the will of the Pakistani people, Safvi claimed. 

Adrian Calamel, a New York-based South Asia expert at the Arabian Peninsula Institute, said that American support for Khan and calls for increased democracy in Pakistan resulted from misunderstanding Pakistani political dynamics. 

“When the US Congress passed a resolution calling for an independent investigation into the Pakistani elections, did any of the congressmen remember Khan’s celebrating the fall of Kabul or his trip to Moscow the day after [Russian President Vladimir] Putin invaded Ukraine?” he asked The Media Line. 

He criticized the US’s willingness to cause diplomatic strife for the sake of “a man who caters to the Islamists and projects himself as a Pakistani Hugo Chávez.”

“Once again, Americans will witness a government in Pakistan asserting free and fair elections and a democratic process, but news reports will focus on a rigged election and erroneous comparisons with Venezuela,” Calamel said.