Pahlavi May Not Be ‘Right Man’ To Lead Post-Regime Iran, Conricus Tells TML
The former Israeli military spokesperson cautioned against reinstating a monarchy in Iran, warning that any popular attempt to overthrow the government may be violent
As fighting between Israel and Iran continues, more analysts are raising the possibility that the war will lead to regime change and bring an end to the Islamic Republic. Many have raised the possibility that exiled Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi will lead a new Iran, and Pahlavi himself told the Iranian people on Tuesday that he has a plan in place for a 100-day transitional period to follow the fall of the regime.
In an interview with The Media Line’s Felice Friedson, former Israeli military spokesperson Jonathan Conricus expressed doubt as to whether Pahlavi is the right choice to lead a post-Islamic Republic Iran. “I’m not entirely sure that Reza Pahlavi is the right man or right face to be leading this. And I’m not entirely sure that the Iranians will follow,” Conricus, now a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said.
I don’t think that the outcome of whatever happens should be reinstituting the monarchy in Iran, because that regime was a failed and corrupt regime that didn’t do well by the Iranian people. And I think a lot of Iranians my age and older remember that and they don’t want that to be the future and that to be the result.
“I don’t think that the outcome of whatever happens should be reinstituting the monarchy in Iran, because that regime was a failed and corrupt regime that didn’t do well by the Iranian people,” he added. “And I think a lot of Iranians my age and older remember that and they don’t want that to be the future and that to be the result.”
Conricus raised a variety of possibilities for a future Iranian state, including an Islamic democracy and “complete Western liberal democracy.” “But whatever happens, it has to be in the hands of the Iranian people,” he said. “It has to be an Iranian decision. It shouldn’t be something that is inserted from abroad, and it has to be a legitimate homegrown solution.”
He cautioned that uprisings are generally “messy.”
“When tyrannical regimes are dismantled, they usually don’t go peacefully. There’s maybe one example of the Soviet Republic that went relatively peacefully. But other than that, there’s usually fighting and casualties,” he said.
While the topic of regime change is on everyone’s mind, the Israeli military operation itself is far from over, Conricus said, urging Israelis, Iranians, and those around the world to gear up for an operation that will last “at least weeks.” “This is not a quick in-and-out job,” he emphasized. “We’re talking about a vast country in terms of size, with tremendous resources, and specifically the Iranians’ nuclear weapons program is a large, dispersed, heavily guarded and fortified program that is going to take time to dismantle.”
So far, the Israeli military has established control over Iranian airspace, allowing it to strike infrastructure used to develop nuclear bombs. Given that Israel finds itself in this “once in a lifetime” situation, dominating Iran’s skies for the first time in history, it is unlikely to want to end military operations after just a few days, Conricus said.
Among the crucial structures that Israel has not yet struck is Iranian gas and oil infrastructure, Conricus said. “All the targets are ready,” he said of those sites. “They’re ready in the data banks of the F-35s and Israeli air force. It’s all there, but it’s a matter of decision whether or not to strike it. Israeli air force can do that very easily. It’s big sitting targets, and there’s no air defenses.”
He estimated that Israel could easily strike between 15 and 25 major pieces of infrastructure in order to “really put the squeeze” on the regime. “That would have a really crucial effect on the regime’s ability to sustain itself, to keep the economy going, to import and export, to provide electricity to houses. And all that could be destroyed by Israel if it decides to,” he said.
The Media Line spoke to Conricus on Wednesday, during a period when Iran was firing relatively few missiles at Israel. Although sirens rang out throughout Israel on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday, the pace of barrages slowed down and the number of missiles fired in each salvo decreased.
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An Iranian attack on Thursday brought more damage. Missiles struck the central Israeli cities of Ramat Gan and Holon, and Beersheba’s Soroka Hospital was directly hit. Dozens were injured across central Israel, with some in serious condition.
Speaking on Wednesday, Conricus offered two theories for why Iran seemed to be slowing down. One option, he said, is that it was trying to lull Israel into a false sense of security in order to do something “big and disastrous.”
“The other possibility is that what Israel is doing, offensively and defensively, is working,” he said. Offensively, Israel is taking out Iran’s missile launchers, with one-third of Iran’s launchers reportedly destroyed so far. Defensively, Israel is relying on its abundance of air defense systems, including the Arrow and David’s Sling. The US Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system and American vessels stationed in the Mediterranean have also provided defense.
While acknowledging that Israel’s air defense is “not hermetic and not 100%,” Conricus said that Israel was succeeding to provide a “pretty good defensive bubble” for its civilians.
Israel’s air defense system has proven itself especially successful against Iranian drones. Conricus noted that none of the hundreds of drones sent by Iran has caused any substantial damage.
“Up until now, we’ve seen pretty effective drones. We’ve seen drones used by the Houthis, and by Russians in Ukraine, and by Ukraine against the Russians. And we’ve seen the Iranians use it as well pretty successfully,” Conricus said. “So I’m positively surprised. The components of the air defense are, of course, radars that constantly scan the air, and that’s the most important component which allows you to see what’s incoming.”
Iran’s missile strategy involves firing huge salvos at a given area in Israel in an attempt to overwhelm Israel’s air defense. “It’s called saturation,” Conricus said. “It’s a known tactic, and it’s been done before, and I’m sure it will be done in the future. And that is how the Iranians were able to allow a few missiles to hit their target or to hit targets in Israel.”
We’re not talking about dead generals and dead soldiers. We’re talking about dead Israeli civilians, women and children that have been killed and men that have been killed by these incoming missiles.
He emphasized that all 24 victims of the Iranian strikes have been civilians. “We’re not talking about dead generals and dead soldiers,” he said. “We’re talking about dead Israeli civilians, women and children that have been killed and men that have been killed by these incoming missiles.”
“We have seen, by the way, the Iranians fire toward and hit national infrastructure in Israel,” he added. “They hit the Haifa oil refinery. It caused the death of three Israelis working there and also substantial damage to the oil refinery. And that’s something that I think we have to put on the table and acknowledge.”
Conricus expressed concern about some foreign journalists’ coverage of the Iranian strikes. “We’ve seen Al Jazeera reporters film live from the Mount Carmel area just above Haifa, and streaming live whenever the missiles were impacting and providing the Iranians with real, live battle damage assessment and confirmation of their hits. That is an extremely reckless and nefarious thing to be doing,” he said.
Seeing Al Jazeera journalists do so came as no surprise, he said, describing the outlet as “a terror-supporting network that masquerades as mass media.”
“I am surprised to see Western media outlets do similar things, probably not with nefarious intentions, basically wanting to be there first and show reality on the ground. But these are things that are not done,” Conricus said. “You do not do that in a combat zone. And Western journalists should know better.”
He called for Israeli authorities to publish clear guidelines about reporting on missile strikes and sanction networks that don’t respect them.
On Tuesday, Israeli national security adviser Tzachi Hanegbi said that the war would not end until Iran’s Fordo nuclear facility is struck. That facility is highly fortified, buried deep in a mountain, leading many to speculate as to whether Israel can damage the site without support from the US.
Conricus said the war will likely not end with Fordo still intact, but emphasized that damaging Fordo does not necessarily mean the use of American weapons. “There’s more than one way to skin a cat,” he said.
Yes, the most elegant and lowest-risk option would be an American B-2 dropping 40,000 pounds of a bomb on the location. That would be very nice. But that’s an American decision.
“Yes, the most elegant and lowest-risk option would be an American B-2 dropping 40,000 pounds of a bomb on the location,” he continued. “That would be very nice. But that’s an American decision. And there are consequences and considerations. And the US is, I think, very rightfully deliberating if it wants to and if it serves its purposes.”
Israel has a contingency plan in place if the US chooses not to strike, Conricus said. “Whatever needs to be done, will be done, so that that facility isn’t standing or isn’t intact at the end of this operation,” he said. “And yes, Israel, I think, can do it.”
For now, it’s still unclear what the US will decide. “I don’t envy the Iranians trying to anticipate what President Trump will do,” Conricus said.
“Currently, being on the Israeli side of the table and the US side of the table is a great place to be thanks to Israeli military achievements,” he added. “And the bargaining cards are very strong in Israel’s hand. … But there is statecraft, and Israel has to be wise, composed, focused, and play that diplomatic game very well in order to translate military achievements into long standing diplomatic achievements and things that will really change the Middle East and change our security situation for the future.”
He added that most Western countries support Israel in its effort to remove the Iranian nuclear threat. A statement made at the recent G7 summit urged “restraint,” without calling on Israel to stop its actions against Iran. “That’s not an omission. That is the unspoken essence that was of that message,” Conricus said.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz on Tuesday described Israel as doing “the dirty work” for all of the West, a statement Conricus said was “the right thing for Europeans to be saying.”
Israel may be carrying out the West’s dirty work, but the ultimate result of Israel’s effort remains to be seen.
“Many things can happen between the end of military action and how that is turned into reality on the ground,” Conricus said. “And here, traditionally speaking, the Iranians are very good. They’re great negotiators. They are great diplomats. They are silver tongued, and they are liars, the best liars in the world. And that is, of course, something that should put room for caution for Israelis and Americans.”
