Political Turmoil in Israel Persists as Coalition Faces Growing Challenges
As Benny Gantz visits Washington, domestic and external pressures mount on Netanyahu's coalition
Israeli War Cabinet minister Benny Gantz arrived in Washington on Sunday for talks with senior American officials. As he took off for the controversial trip, reportedly against the will of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, protesters in Tel Aviv and Jerusalem demonstrated against the government.
Some were calling for the immediate release of hostages being held by the Hamas terrorist organization in the Gaza Strip. Others were advocating for immediate elections. Echoing the call of the protesters, opposition lawmaker Avigdor Liberman on Sunday also called for early elections, saying the government had reached “the end of its path.”
All the while, Israeli soldiers continue to fight against Hamas in the Gaza Strip and tensions on the northern border with Hizbullah show no side of subsiding. These are turbulent times in Israel.
In his sixth term as prime minister, Netanyahu leads a government that has been caught up in controversy since it was sworn in on December 29, 2022. In initiating a sweeping judicial reform, the coalition met sharp criticism and massive demonstrations which came to a screeching halt when Hamas stunned Israel with a massive attack on October 7, 2023. In response to the attack, Israel launched a war against Hamas in the Gaza Strip. Days into the fighting, Gantz, a former military chief and head of the second-largest opposition party, joined the government. The aim was to project unity at a time when Israelis were craving quiet on the homefront. That unity has begun to unravel as the coalition faces a myriad of domestic and international challenges.
The War Effort
As Israelis recovered from the initial shock and the army regrouped after its colossal failure in foreseeing the attack, Israel began its war, stating that the aims were to remove Hamas and release the hostages taken into captivity. In response to the murder of approximately 1,200 Israelis and thousands more wounded, the Israeli military began an extensive offensive in the Gaza Strip. According to the Hamas-run Gaza Health Ministry, over 30,000 Palestinians have been killed since, and tens of thousands injured.
Initially, Israelis rallied behind the army and government in full support. But, as the war drags on, there are voices of dissatisfaction within the coalition and among the public. A document written by Gadi Eisenkot, a member of Gantz’s party and also a War Cabinet minister, was leaked last week. In it, Eisenkot criticizes Netanyahu’s lack of strategic decision-making. According to Eisenkot, the prime minister’s procrastination in dealing with an alternative to Hamas’ rule in the Gaza Strip once the military operation is over is harming the war effort, gnawing away at Israel’s achievements.
Netanyahu is not sharing his intentions with anyone
“Netanyahu is not sharing his intentions with anyone,” said Eran Vigoda-Gadot, a professor of public administration and political science at the University of Haifa. “The delay in acting prevents a swifter solution. There is no doubt that Netanyahu’s political considerations play a major part in this.”
Netanyahu’s approval ratings have plummeted since the beginning of the war. Some of his opponents accuse him of dragging his feet to avoid a doomed political fate that awaits him once the war ends.
Gantz’s trip to the US could be a signal of his intentions to leave the government soon. Such a departure could set the dissolution of the coalition in motion. Gantz is Netanyahu’s main rival in the polls.
“This is a significant event,” said Dr. Shuki Friedman, vice president of the Jewish People Policy Institute and a member of Peres Academic Center’s Law Faculty. “There should be coordination within the War Cabinet on the strategy and the messages conveyed to the US administration.”
According to reports in Israeli media, Gantz updated Netanyahu on his travel plans a day before his departure with the latter voicing his objection to the trip. Gantz will reportedly meet US Vice President Kamala Harris in the White House. Since being sworn in, Netanyahu has met US President Joe Biden on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly meeting last fall. The Israeli premier still awaits an invite to the White House, a testament to the strained relations he has with President Biden.
“Clearly, this does not contribute to the stability of the coalition or the trust between its members,” Friedman told The Media Line.
To Netanyahu’s right are ultra-nationalist members who have criticized him for allowing humanitarian assistance to enter Gaza and for not operating harshly enough against Hamas.
But, in the wake of Hamas’ vicious attack, there is a consensus in Israel on the need to rid Gaza of the terrorist organization that has threatened the Jewish state for years.
There is a greater consensus within the government than what it looks like
“There is a greater consensus within the government than what it looks like,” Vigoda-Gadot told The Media Line. “There is an agreement, also outside of the government, that the job needs to be completed; otherwise, Israel will be in major trouble.”
The Hostages
Regardless of Netanyahu’s political considerations, the fact that Hamas holds a significant number of Israeli hostages complicates the situation.
As part of Hamas’ offensive on Israel, the organization succeeded in kidnapping 257 people, most of them Israeli civilians. Since then, 123 hostages have been released. The fate of the remaining hostages is unclear. Israeli intelligence believes at least 30 of them are dead. Negotiations for the release of at least 40 of them have been underway in recent weeks, with US, Egyptian and Qatari mediation. President Biden had expressed his hope that a deal would be reached before the beginning of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, which will begin next week. Such hopes are fading as the talks appear to be stalled.
“The negotiations need to be tough, as a large part of Hamas’ demands cannot be met by Israel,” said Vigoda-Gadot.
Polls in Israel indicate support for a deal is declining. Media reports say Israel has agreed to a lengthy cease-fire and increased flow of humanitarian aid in return for the release of 40 hostages. Far from reaching its stated goal of toppling Hamas, the government is under conflicting pressures. From the right wing, Netanyahu is expected to deliver victory over the terrorist organization. From relatives of the hostages, the demand is to secure their release and only then resume the war on Hamas. A significant number of Palestinian prisoners will also likely be released as part of the deal, a sore spot for many Israelis.
“The right wing will not be happy unless the price of a release will be low in terms of the number of Palestinian prisoners released and the continuation of the fighting in Gaza,” said Friedman. “There will likely be a significant conflict within the coalition, but a deal will not topple it.”
“There is greater consensus than people think,” said Vigoda-Gadot. “Hamas is demanding the highest price possible, and Israel cannot pay any price. As much as bringing back the hostages is a major cause, Israel cannot and should not strip itself of all its assets for this.”
US Involvement
Israel received unprecedented diplomatic and military support from the US since the beginning of the war. In the immediate aftermath, the Biden Administration set aside any conflict with the Netanyahu government and focused on supporting the Jewish state. As time has gone by and Netanyahu is perceived as stalling and refusing to deal with any future settlement that could include the establishment of a Palestinian state, the White House has become impatient.
“The Americans are expressing this in every way possible,” said Vigoda-Gadot. “They have a lot of leverage, and they are using it increasingly. This pressure is expected to grow.”
On Saturday, the US airdropped humanitarian aid into Gaza for the first time. The volume of the aid has been a topic of contention between the two allies since the beginning of the war. The White House has also been critical of the mounting civilian death toll in Gaza.
“It is not secret that the US would like to see a completely different government,” said Friedman. “Hosting Gantz is meant to send a message, showing they prefer him. They will not be sorry if the visit undermines the coalition.”
Conscription
Mandatory military service in Israel and the almost routine exemption granted to ultra-Orthodox or Haredi Jews is one of Israeli society’s most contentious issues. This hot potato has led to the dissolution of governments before and could potentially bring the downfall of this one.
“This is where the real drama is,” said Friedman. “Public sentiment, including in the right wing, is with drafting ultra-Orthodox Jews.”
Military service in Israel is mandatory for both genders once they reach the age of 18. Ultra-Orthodox or Haredi Jews have de facto been exempt from this duty for years. To qualify for the exemption, men must prove they are engaged in full-time religious studies, while women are automatically exempt if they declare that their religious commitments prevent them from serving.
“The issue has accompanied Israel since its inception 75 years ago. Up until the war, the discussion was about equality; now it is about necessity. It is a political question about values, about who will bear the brunt of military service: Will those who already serve, serve more, or will others join in?” Friedman explained.
When the war began, over 300,000 Israelis were called up for reserve duty. Many of the reservists served for over three months, away from their families and jobs. The burden on society and the economy is immense. Facing an extended war in Gaza and a possible new front in the north against Hizbullah, the Israeli military has said it lacks thousands of fighters.
It is clear that what existed before October 7 can no longer exist; the majority of the Haredi population also understands this
“It is clear that what existed before October 7 can no longer exist; the majority of the Haredi population also understands this,” said Vigoda-Gadot, who believes public opinion will force a solution before the crisis topples the government. “Conscription is an indicator of internal cohesion in Israel.”
