Potential Hezbollah Attack Thwarted by IDF Could Have Sparked War – Alma Expert to TML

Unconfirmed sources claimed that 6,000 Hezbollah rockets were primed to attack Israel early this morning but were destroyed before they could be launched

During the early hours of Sunday morning, the Israel Defense Forces foiled Hezbollah’s attempt to launch a massive attack from Lebanon against targets in Israel’s North and Center. The IDF claimed in a statement that “approximately 100 IAF fighter jets, directed by IDF intelligence, struck and destroyed thousands of Hezbollah rocket launcher barrels that were located and embedded in southern Lebanon.”

Boaz Shapira, a researcher and speaker at the Alma Research Center, explained to The Media Line that if the IDF’s claims about the scale of Hezbollah’s prevented attack are accurate, “this could have been a massive assault, potentially enough to start a war.” 

As Israel considers Hezbollah’s threat more imminent than other outside enemies, like the Houthis and even Iran, the IDF feels its preemptive attack avoided a larger escalation in the region. Shapira explained to The Media Line that Israel probably used multiple methods to verify if Hezbollah’s attack was imminent. 

“Israel had intelligence about Hezbollah’s impending attack for at least a few days,” Shapira stated. “It’s evident that Israel possesses strong intelligence on Hezbollah’s structure, bases, and headquarters and has reliable real-time information. The reasons for waiting until the ‘last minute’ to strike might include ensuring the certainty of the attack, maximizing damage to Hezbollah’s infrastructure by targeting all missiles in place, and avoiding blame for any potential escalation.”

IDF spokesperson Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari stated on the IDF’s official channels that they “identified extensive preparation by the Hezbollah terrorist organization to fire toward the Israeli Home Front. After extensive identification, the IAF and Northern Command began proactively and broadly striking Hezbollah targets in order to remove the threats aimed at the citizens of Israel.”

According to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli Air Force attack “destroyed thousands of rockets aimed at the north of the country. It has also thwarted many other threats and operates with great power—both defensively and offensively.”

Preparing for such an attack takes some time and creates a lot of signals and indicators.

Shapira continued: “Preparing for such an attack takes some time and creates a lot of signals and indicators. I can assume it has to do with moving rockets/missiles and preparing launch sites, evacuating headquarters and personnel, and also human sources and signals intelligence gathered from radio/telephone calls and other methods. This preparation time and these signals allow Israel to prepare for the preemptive attack as well as making sure the defense systems are ready. This also allowed Israel to notice civilians just before the beginning of the attack, helping to keep the element of surprise.”

Additionally, the IDF claimed that “most of the launchers were aimed toward northern Israel, and some were aimed at central Israel. More than 40 launch areas in Lebanon were struck during the strikes.” 

Probably, thanks to the large US presence in the region with multiple ships, the Iranians didn’t join Hezbollah’s attacks against Israel. We’ve dodged a bullet in terms of a potential regional war.

Danny Citrinowicz, a research fellow in the Iran Program at the Institute for National Security Studies told TML, “Probably, thanks to the large US presence in the region with multiple ships, the Iranians didn’t join Hezbollah attacks against Israel. We’ve dodged a bullet in terms of a potential regional war.”

“Just look at how many phone calls [Israeli Defense Minister] Yoav Gallant and [US Defense Minister Lloyd] Austin have had in the past week or so,” he continued. “So, from that perspective, the American presence and involvement are one of the ways to defuse this tension, alongside other measures taken, but they are also preparatory measures taken for a case of an all-out war.”

It was obvious that Hezbollah would retaliate as revenge but also balance the deterrence equation with Israel. It remains unclear the logic behind Iran’s choice to attack today, but it’s obvious that they didn’t want to find themselves in a war. Still, they’re willing to risk escalation to balance the deterrence equation.

Citrinowicz added: “It was obvious that Hezbollah would retaliate as revenge but also balance the deterrence equation with Israel. It remains unclear the logic behind Iran’s choice to attack today, but it’s obvious that they didn’t want to find themselves in a war. Still, they’re willing to risk escalation to balance the deterrence equation.” 

Regarding the partial outcome of the attacks from both sides, it appears that both Israel and Hezbollah are content with their respective claimed achievements. 

Incredibly enough, it seems like both sides are satisfied with the results. Hezbollah news sources appear to claim that this escalation has ended, but the main problem is Hezbollah will continue attacking Israel until there is a cease-fire in Gaza, and we can find ourselves in this same escalation tomorrow or after.

Citrinowicz noted: “Incredibly enough, it seems like both sides are satisfied with the results. Hezbollah news sources appear to claim that this escalation has ended, but the main problem is Hezbollah will continue attacking Israel until there is a cease-fire in Gaza, and we can find ourselves in this same escalation tomorrow or after.” 

“Then, we don’t know what can happen because both sides are playing with fire. But at the moment, the is no appetite for escalation in Tehran. This doesn’t say anything about the future, and the Israeli citizens in the north still can’t return to their homes.”

Despite multiple signals in Israel inferring that the security situation improved after the preventive attack in southern Lebanon, Iran’s semi-official news channel boasted that Hezbollah had successfully completed what they claimed to be the first stage of their operation, which “included targeting Israeli barracks and military centers” and that “more than 320 missiles were fired at 11 Israeli military bases.”

Meanwhile, on Hezbollah Telegram groups and other channels, the terrorist group is attempting to provide its own narrative. “Following pre-emptive strikes on south Lebanon by Israel and part of the initial response to the assassination of commander Fuad Shukr, Hezbollah launched over 300 rockets, missiles, and drones towards several areas in the Galilee, targeting over 10 Israeli sites, among them one undisclosed qualitative target.”

On Hezbollah’s news-sharing channels, usually filled with violent images of attacks against civilians and IDF forces, the only images showing the destruction of Hezbollah’s attack was a chicken coop that they claimed to be in the Galilee region.

While the 200 to 300 rockets launched during the morning of August 25 is not significantly more severe than other attacks over the past 11 months, it appears that Hezbollah aimed to overwhelm the Iron Dome and David’s Sling systems while deploying UAVs and other sophisticated weapons against key targets

Sharipa evaluated that “the IDF also identified 210 rockets and 20 UAVs launched from Lebanon. According to the IDF reports, there were no direct hits on bases or cities and no casualties from the rockets. On the other hand, Hezbollah claimed their attack was successful and alleged that they struck two targets in Tel Aviv.” 

“While the 200 to 300 rockets launched during the morning of August 25 is not significantly more severe than other attacks over the past 11 months, it appears that Hezbollah aimed to overwhelm the Iron Dome and David’s Sling systems while deploying UAVs and other sophisticated weapons against key targets,” he noted.