Principles Used by Hamas on Oct. 7 Taken From Decade-Old Hizbullah Invasion Plan
Firsthand accounts of the mounting security challenges posed by Hizbullah underscore the urgent need for strategic action on the northern border
Six months into the war between Israel and Hamas, with no end in sight, Israel continues efforts to free the 134 hostages remaining in Gaza, not all of whom are alive, and to eliminate Hamas’ military capabilities. Meanwhile, Israel faces intensifying daily threats from the terrorist group Hizbullah across the border with Lebanon.
Sarit Zehavi, founder and president of the Alma Research and Education Center, a leading institution in terrorism studies, shared insights with The Media Line on the evolving security landscape.
Hizbullah’s Intentions
“The interest of Hizbullah today is to create an unbearable situation and drag Israel into war,” Zehavi told The Media Line. In the Alma Center’s evaluation, Hizbullah shows a high interest in and is fully prepared for war.
The interest of Hizbullah today is to create an unbearable situation and drag Israel into war
Hizbullah claims that it has been responsible for a weekly average of 50 rocket attacks on Israel in recent months. In the last two weeks, the increase in weekly attacks suggests a potential escalation of Hizbullah’s tactics and operations.
Zehavi pointed out that Hizbullah’s presence in southern Lebanon contravenes UN Security Council Resolution 1701. Given their position on the border, it is very likely that they will attempt to cross into Israel, she said.
“All the principles that we saw Hamas execute on Oct. 7 exist in a decade-old Hizbullah invasion plan,” Zehavi said. She described a video published a decade ago on Hizbullah’s Al Mayadeen TV station, which illustrated the terrorist organization’s plan to take over Galilee.
They talk about thousands of invaders, the commando units of Hizbullah, Radwan Brigade
“They talk about thousands of invaders, the commando units of Hizbullah, Radwan Brigade,” she said. “The idea is to enter into communities from various areas along the borderline. Each force that enters will have a mission, and the mission is to trap civilians to become human shields. To take over the main roads, to block the main roads, to prevent any assistance from coming. This sick idea [that Hamas used on Oct. 7] existed in Hizbullah’s plans already a decade ago.”
She said that Israeli military attacks on thousands of targets in Lebanon have weakened Hizbullah’s capabilities, decreasing the chances that the group might be able to carry out such a plan.
If there is a cease-fire, the same way there was a cease-fire in 2006, after which nobody actually enforced the redeployment of Hizbullah or prevented the recovery of its capabilities in south Lebanon, then they will be able to do this [carry out cross-border attacks]
“If there is a cease-fire, the same way there was a cease-fire in 2006, after which nobody actually enforced the redeployment of Hizbullah or prevented the recovery of its capabilities in south Lebanon, then they will be able to do this [carry out cross-border attacks],” Zehavi warned. “They can recover very quickly. And as we speak, they are recovering the places that were hit.”
The 2006 cease-fire between Israel and Hizbullah, brokered by UN Security Council Resolution 1701, ended the conflict sparked by Hizbullah’s July 2006 cross-border raid into Israel. The UN resolution mandated an immediate cessation of hostilities, withdrawal of Israeli forces from Lebanon, disarmament of Hizbullah, and deployment of UN peacekeepers to monitor the cease-fire. The cease-fire brought a temporary end to direct hostilities, but tensions and sporadic violence persisted in the years since.
The Iranian Strategy: Unifying Fronts
According to Zehavi, Hizbullah’s loyalties lie not with the Lebanese army or Lebanese interests but with Iran. Iran intends to unify its many satellite organizations to destroy Israel, Zehavi said.
The recent sequence of meetings between Hizbullah, the Iranian foreign affairs minister, and Palestinian factions such as Islamic Jihad and Hamas, suggests that “there is an idea, a conception, maybe even a strict plan,” Zehavi said. “I’m not sure there is a joint operation room, but I’m sure there is an idea to create a unification of fronts, a multifront campaign against the state of Israel.”
Tunnels, Missiles, and Drones
Zehavi explained that Hizbullah has tunnels all over Lebanon.
“All the tunnel infrastructure we saw in Gaza exists in the same way, and maybe even more in Lebanon. The terrain is different. They don’t need cement. It’s all rocks,” she said.
A few years ago, the Israeli military blocked off six tunnels that could be used to cross into Israel from Lebanon, Zehavi said. But tactical tunnels that enable terrorists to move from one building to another likely still exist in southern Lebanon.
The Alma Center published a report two years ago about Iran’s use of drones in warfare. “The IDF has since published that since the war started, 900 drones have been launched against Israel,” Zehavi said. “Most of them come from Lebanon. Maybe this number is an underestimation. Maybe it’s even more.”
Hizbullah has used anti-tank weapons against civilian communities as well as military sites. “The missiles utilized in these attacks typically have a range of up to five kilometers, although instances of longer-range missiles have also been observed,” Zehavi said. “This paints a concerning picture of Hizbullah’s deliberate targeting of both civilian and military assets, posing a significant threat to stability and security in the region.”
According to data presented by Ariel Frish, deputy security manager for Kiryat Shmona, Israel’s northernmost city, Hizbullah has 150,000 rockets of various ranges, including the Burkan, a short-range rocket that can carry half a ton of explosives. The organization is believed to be capable of shooting about 4,000 missiles a day.
Israel’s Iron Dome air defense system is less effective at intercepting some of the missiles sent by Hizbullah, Zehavi said.
Options for a Cease-Fire
Zehavi said that she is wary about a cease-fire with Hizbullah that doesn’t prevent the group from executing an attack.
She outlined the conditions necessary for a feasible cease-fire: establishing a clear deadline, prioritizing disarmament over withdrawal, and implementing an effective enforcement mechanism.
Zehavi noted that previous enforcement mechanisms have not succeeded. “Today, regardless of responsibility, the area in question was supposed to have been cleared 17 years ago, yet Hizbullah occupies it,” she said.
She also expressed concerns about the storage of munitions within Lebanese civilian homes and infrastructure.
“All that we saw in Gaza—hiding the rifles among teddy bears, and putting the rockets in civilians’ bedrooms, and using tunnels—everything in Gaza exists the same way in south Lebanon,” Zehavi said. “There are vast amounts of missiles and rockets that we believe exist in the hands of Hizbullah.”
Since Oct. 7, Zehavi and other residents of the north have been concerned about a potential Hizbullah invasion. “Our fears run deep. We all saw what was supposed to happen to us, and we go to sleep with these images and wake up to them in the morning,” she said.
Life in Northern Communities
Around 16,000 Israelis from northern communities were evacuated by the government after the war broke out. “They took a suitcase and went out very quickly. That’s 43 communities that became ghost towns,” Zehavi said.
Zehavi, who lives just 5 miles from the border with Lebanon, has been personally affected by the war as well.
“For the first two months, kids in my community didn’t go to school,” she said. “Now, they are going to school, but they cannot go outside during the break. Now, imagine how it is for young kids not to go outside for six hours at school. Only when my little girl came back crying did I understand how difficult it is.”
She described a recent car ride with her daughter and another child during which rocket sirens went off. Since there were no shelters around, they had to get out of the car and lie on the side of the road.
“I knew that as a mother, I had to lie on her to protect her, but I didn’t make it. I heard a blast above us before I got to her,” Zehavi said. “To hear the blast above us after a few seconds, knowing that I didn’t have time to defend my child, was a terrible moment.”
After visiting the Alma Center, we headed to Metula, the evacuated town of 1,740 residents on the border with Lebanon. The streets of Metula, which has suffered severe damage due to frequent attacks, are eerily quiet. Members of the press are allowed into the town only with protective gear.
Burnt-out cars line the roads. Stray dogs roam around dilapidated abandoned houses. The once warm and welcoming community has become lifeless and frightening.
Metula Mayor David Azoulay welcomed us on the spot.
“The UN acknowledges the borders of the state of Israel,” Azoulay told The Media Line. “We cannot accept the fact that we will suffer missile attacks, whether in low capacity or high capacity. Whoever violates our sovereignty must suffer. It must be understood that we deserve safety and security.”
Azoulay also stated his opinion that Hizbullah is acting according to Iranian interests to destroy Israel.
“Americans and all of the world need to join forces, not only against Iran but also against Russia because of what they’re doing in Ukraine,” he said. “The world must stop playing games. They must understand that they must act against any country that harms another country.”
The city of Kiryat Shmona, less than 2 miles from the border with Lebanon, was our last stop. The city was evacuated in October due to the constant threat of shelling from Hizbullah.
“Every aspect has been affected by this conflict,” Kiryat Shmona deputy security manager Ariel Frish told The Media Line. “There is no life in the north now.”
According to Frish, the current security situation in northern Israel has left evacuated residents feeling like refugees in their own country. He emphasized that every resident eagerly awaits a peaceful and secure return home.
While expressing hope for successful diplomatic efforts, Frish insisted that any agreement must eliminate the threat posed by Hizbullah to Israel. He underscored the urgency of the situation, stating that after recent events, there seems to be no alternative but to address the threat posed by Hizbullah decisively.
“It’s either we take care of the risk and the threat, or we don’t come home,” he said.
