Rockets on Ramadan: Israel and Hizbullah Increase Range of Fire With No End in Sight

Over 100 rockets were fired by Hizbullah toward northern Israel, prompting Israeli airstrikes. Amid the ongoing Israel-Hamas war, tensions with Hizbullah escalate, with both sides targeting military sites to avoid broader conflict.

Over 100 rockets were fired toward northern Israel on Tuesday morning, as tensions between Israel and Hizbullah continue to soar. The Israeli military responded with airstrikes in what has become a daily ritual between the two rivals. 

The frequent exchanges of fire between Israel and the Lebanese-based terrorist group began just days after the war between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip began. Entering the sixth month of the war, Hizbullah, a long-time enemy of Israel, continues to attack Israel as it vowed to stand by Hamas in its fight against Israel.

“Both sides continue to escalate, with Israel increasingly escalating its controlled responses,” said Amatzia Baram, a professor emeritus at the University of Haifa and an expert in Middle Eastern politics. “The general picture hasn’t changed radically during these months, but it changes constantly in baby steps.”

According to Baram, both sides are careful to strike only military targets with a silent agreement on the geographical borders of the conflict. Any deviation that would result in major civilian casualties or the attack of targets deeper inside both territories could lead to the eruption of a major war, one that has the potential of engulfing the whole Middle East in flames.

“The Israeli military is trying to reach as many achievements as possible before a ceasefire is reached as part of an attempt to avoid an all-out war,” said Sarit Zehavi, president of the Alma Research and Education Center and a former intelligence officer in the IDF Intelligence Directorate. “Hizbullah has also escalated, using more rockets and managing to disrupt the lives of Israelis even more.”

The international community is concerned about this, and the US and France are busy mediating a settlement between the warring sides.

In the meanwhile, Israel has evacuated approximately 60,000 residents of the north, who have been away from their homes since October 2023. In recent days, Hizbullah has increased the range of its fire, meaning more Israelis who were not evacuated are under threat.

“There is no routine here,” Zehavi told The Media Line. “It is unclear how people will come back and under what conditions. This question mark has only grown over time.”

Karyna Kushnir is originally from a Kibbutz 500 meters from the border with Lebanon. Since October, she has moved three times, and her children have moved to three different schools. The government has recently extended the financial support given to her and other evacuees, giving them compensation until July. 

“I will only go back home if Hizbullah is kept from the border,” Kushnir told The Media Line. “We have lived under their threat for many years. I am very scared.”

In recent years, Karyna and other residents have seen Hizbullah increase its presence along the border. They have also reported hearing sounds of underground digging in what they believe is Hizbullah preparing attack tunnels. The scenes of Hamas storming Israel’s southern border and using similar tunnels were the realization of Israel’s north worst nightmare. 

The last time Hizbullah and Israel went to war was in 2006. The war ended with United Nations Resolution 1701, which brought about a cease-fire and also called for Hizbullah forces to be distanced from the border with Israel. It also demanded the disarmament of all armed groups in Lebanon, other than the Lebanese army, based on previous UN resolutions. However, these have never been implemented.

“For me to feel safe, Hizbullah needs to be moved even further than what 1701 calls for,” Kushnir added. 

In late 2018, the Israeli military conducted a military operation aimed at locating and destroying Hizbullah tunnels. Several tunnels were located and destroyed. The UN peacekeeping force tasked with implementing 1701 also acknowledged their presence.

In the wake of the scenes of Hamas terrorists storming Israel’s south by the hundreds, Israel is looking to remove the same threat posed by Hizbullah, an enemy considered far more formidable than Hamas. Israeli intelligence estimates Hizbullah has accumulated around 150,000 unguided rockets. In addition, it is believed to have a sizeable amount of precision-guided missiles that can threaten central infrastructure installations in Israel. It also has a stockpile of offensive drones, some of which it has already used in the current round of violence. 

“The current Israeli operations will not completely solve the problem of Hizbullah or remove the threat entirely,” said Zehavi. “But it will make it difficult for the organization to execute an attack similar to what Hamas did.”

As time goes by, there have been more voices in Israel that criticize the government’s decision to evacuate so many residents as no clear-cut solution appears to be on the horizon.

“I couldn’t have stayed there and would have evacuated even without government support,” said Kushnir. “The events were so shocking and unnerving for everyone. It was clear that the desire was to protect the residents of the north.”

According to Zehavi, polls conducted amongst northern residents show that almost half do not intend to return to their homes in some cities. 

Since the war with Hamas began, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant have warned Hizbullah repeatedly of further escalating the conflict. For months, Israel avoided an escalation with Hizbullah, focusing its efforts on the war against Hamas in Gaza. The military effort in the Gaza Strip has since been downscaled. Simultaneously, Israel has beefed up its armed presence on the border with Lebanon. 

As the war in Gaza drags on, Israel is under increasing international pressure and criticism. Seen as responsible for a major humanitarian crisis in Gaza and by many as responding disproportionately against the Palestinians, Israel, and Netanyahu have been on a collision course with the international community, including the US. So, while it readies itself for a conflict in Lebanon, it also finds itself increasingly isolated. 

“Israel is prepared for a full-scale war with Lebanon,” Baram told The Media Line. “But without American approval, or even coordination, Israel will find itself in a major problem within two weeks, perhaps without enough ammunition and support in international forums such as the UN Security Council.”

“Netanyahu must quickly reach an understanding with the US about everything,” Baram added. The situation in which both Netanyahu and US President Joe Biden are clashing cannot continue. It is a mistake for the US, and for Israel, it is suicide.”

As tensions escalated sharply with the outbreak of the war, Biden issued a warning to Israel’s regional enemies, which included Hizbullah. The US also moved warships into the region, adding a credible threat to his warnings. 

Hizbullah is backed and funded by Iran. A conflict between Hizbullah and Israel would likely bring Iran into the war and inevitably drag the US into an unwanted regional showdown.  Mediation efforts by the US and others have so far come up empty-handed. This leaves Israel with the problem of how to restore quiet on its northern border with Lebanon.

After a day of heavy fighting, in which Israeli warplanes responded to a massive rocket barrage with airstrikes against targets deep in Lebanese territory, Israeli officials and intelligence officers continue to preoccupy themselves trying to understand the intentions of Hizbullah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah. 

“Israel needs to focus its efforts on quashing Hizbullah’s abilities and not trying to decipher Nasrallah’s plans,” said Zehavi. “This is something Israel will never know.”