Saudi Arabia Leveraging Normalization Talks for Strategic Gains
Panelists at the American University in Cairo say Saudi Arabia is prioritizing long-term regional and global advantages over immediate agreements
[Cairo] Saudi Arabia is leveraging potential normalization with Israel to secure strategic, long-term gains, experts said during a panel discussion at the American University in Cairo. While Israeli media reports suggest a breakthrough may be near, panelists described Riyadh’s approach as deliberate, focusing on extracting concessions from the United States and Israel rather than rushing into a formal agreement.
The Monday panel brought together regional and international experts to examine the evolving dynamics of Saudi-Israeli normalization and its broader implications for the Middle East. Speakers emphasized that Saudi Arabia’s strategy prioritizes a long-term vision over the immediacy suggested in some media reports.
The Saudis understand the American political clock and use it to their advantage
Jon Alterman, a US-based Middle East expert, said Saudi Arabia’s strategy is shaped by its understanding of global political timelines, particularly those of the US. “The Saudis understand the American political clock and use it to their advantage,” Alterman said. “They don’t feel the same urgency. For them, this is about decades, not months.”
Alterman noted that Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, expected to rule for decades, is positioning Saudi Arabia for the long term while benefiting from the geopolitical attention generated by normalization talks. “The mere possibility of normalization has already shifted Riyadh’s standing in Washington from one of controversy to cooperation,” he said.
Egyptian analyst Ashraf Rady highlighted how Israeli media often misinterpret the internal dynamics of Arab states. He pointed to reports claiming Qatar had asked Hamas to leave Doha as an example. “These erroneous reports reflect the limits of Israeli media’s grasp of Arab complexities,” Rady told The Media Line.
He contrasted Saudi Arabia’s societal dynamics with those of the UAE, where acceptance of normalization has been smoother. “Saudi Arabia faces significant societal reluctance to embrace full peace with Israel,” he said, calling this a major hurdle.
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Saudi Arabia has made it clear that normalization will not proceed unless a Palestinian state is promised or achieved
Panelists agreed that Saudi Arabia’s normalization strategy is deeply tied to its stance on the Palestinian issue. Mona Makram Ebeid, an Egyptian academic, said the Palestinian cause remains central to Riyadh’s approach. “The deal with Saudi Arabia, which was reportedly in the works, is what provoked the events of October 7,” Ebeid said, referencing the Hamas-led attack on Israel. “Saudi Arabia has made it clear that normalization will not proceed unless a Palestinian state is promised or achieved.”
Mohamed Ibrahim Eldawiry, deputy director of the Egyptian Center for Strategic Studies, reinforced this view, citing recent remarks by Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan. “Normalization with Israel hinges on establishing a Palestinian state,” Eldawiry said. “Without this, instability and insecurity will persist, turning Israel’s integration aspirations into illusions.”
Panelists observed that King Salman’s longstanding commitment to the Palestinian cause, coupled with regional pressure from Egypt and Jordan, adds further complexity to Saudi Arabia’s path to normalization.
Balancing Regional Ambitions and Domestic Constraints
Experts described Saudi Arabia’s cautious strategy as a balancing act between its regional leadership ambitions and domestic political sensitivities. While normalization could counter Iranian influence and strengthen Saudi Arabia’s leadership in the Middle East, it risks sparking backlash from conservative factions within the kingdom.
Ezzat Ibrahim, editor-in-chief of Al-Ahram Weekly, noted that former US President Donald Trump is expected to push for a US-Saudi defense pact as the foundation of broader regional cooperation, even in the absence of Saudi-Israeli normalization.
“In Washington, some may question the extensive benefits being offered to Riyadh as a principal Gulf partner,” Ibrahim told The Media Line. He compared the current situation to the Reagan-era arms deal with Saudi Arabia in the 1980s, which faced strong opposition from pro-Israel advocates. “That deal catalyzed the rise of groups like AIPAC and resulted in a US-Israel bilateral agreement ensuring access to advanced American weaponry,” he added.
Alterman highlighted Vision 2030 and the global energy transition as key elements of Saudi Arabia’s broader strategy. “When you keep the idea of normalization alive, it keeps people engaged with you,” he said. “Why rush to finalize a deal when the possibility already serves your interests?”
Panelists noted that by keeping normalization talks ongoing, Saudi Arabia is leveraging its position to attract foreign investment, bolster domestic industries, and secure its long-term strategic objectives.
Rady explained that advancing the Abraham Accords 2.0 will require navigating divergent interests. “While Israel seeks expanded normalization, Riyadh focuses on extracting strategic concessions, and Cairo remains concerned about regional stability,” he said.
He added that Washington’s primary concern is maintaining political stability in Egypt to preserve its regional influence. “This makes the US-Egypt relationship strategic and grounded in geopolitical imperatives, regardless of who is in the White House,” he said.
The Saudis have mastered the art of playing for time
As the discussion concluded, panelists emphasized that Saudi Arabia is unlikely to finalize normalization with Israel in the near term. “The Saudis have mastered the art of playing for time,” Alterman said. “They’re positioning themselves for the long game, on their terms.”
