Talk of a Hamas-Israel Cease-fire Still Premature, but New US Administration Could Tip the Scales

Trump wants Netanyahu to make a deal, but experts say the compromises needed to reach a deal with Hamas might bring an end to the Netanyahu government

The cease-fire reached last week between Hezbollah and Israel raised hopes that a similar deal could be reached between Hamas and Israel after over a year of deadly war. Media reports said on Sunday that a Hamas delegation was in Cairo to discuss the prospect of an agreement, which would also see the release of at least some of the 101 Israeli hostages still held in Gaza. In an interview with Israel’s Channel 14, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that conditions for a deal “have changed for the better.”

Yet major impasses remain between Israel and Hamas. Israel still maintains a military presence in the Gaza Strip, and the current government refuses to withdraw from the territory, which Hamas has said is a precondition for any deal.

Former US President Donald Trump’s impending return to power already has both sides of the regional conflict recalculating their steps. Trump has said his entrance to the White House will see wars ended, an ambitious goal for the war-torn Middle East.

On Saturday evening, thousands of Israelis gathered to protest the government and call for a cease-fire deal. The demonstrations were held in several cities and marked a year to the last cease-fire agreement, in which 80 Israeli hostages were released. Hours before the protest, Hamas released a video of 20-year-old Israeli American hostage Edan Alexander, who broke down in front of the camera, begging for his release. Alexander’s status as a soldier means that he likely will not be one of the first hostages released in any future deal.

Throughout the war, there have been several attempts by American, Egyptian, and Qatari mediators to strike a deal, but to no avail. At least 30 of the 101 hostages held in Gaza are presumed dead, and the fate of the others remains uncertain.

“Chances for an agreement that would end the war are slim,” Brig. Gen. (res.) Nitzan Nuriel, former director of the Counterterrorism Bureau at the Israeli Prime Minister’s Office, told The Media Line. “A shorter cease-fire for a few days is more feasible, but also not in the near future. Such a deal would see the release of a small number of Israeli hostages—perhaps humanitarian cases or bodies.”

More than 250 people, most of them civilians and some foreign nationals, were kidnapped by Hamas during its surprise offensive against Israel on October 7 of last year.

“Until this moment, Hamas has not changed its principal position, which is based on two conditions—Israeli withdrawal from Gaza and the cessation of the war against Gaza,” Abed Kanaaneh, a lecturer and researcher at Tel Aviv University’s Middle Eastern studies department, told The Media Line. “Hamas is left with one last card—the hostages—and the government of Israel wants [to have] this card and still retain the ability to determine when to resume the war.”

A deal with Hamas will also likely see a large number of Palestinian prisoners released from Israeli prisons, many of them convicted of murdering Israelis. That piece of the bargain will be hard for Israel to agree to, especially under Netanyahu’s right-wing government.

Ultranationalist ministers Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich have repeatedly announced their refusal to make any concessions to the Palestinians. Both have expressed their wish to resettle the Gaza Strip, nearly two decades after Israel withdrew its forces and settlements from the territory. Netanyahu has rejected this idea publicly, but the political constellation makes it difficult to predict how a compromise could be reached.

The current government is unwilling to pay the price needed in order to see the hostages return home

“The current government is unwilling to pay the price needed in order to see the hostages return home,” Nuriel said.

The Israeli premier spoke to the family of Edan Alexander on Saturday night after the video of their son was released.

“Netanyahu promised that Israel is acting with determination to bring the hostages home,” read a statement from his office.

On Sunday, Ben-Gvir said he continues to work in order to “encourage” voluntary Palestinian immigration from Gaza, saying that Netanyahu had shown increasing openness to the idea.

“It is hard to tell whether Netanyahu is a prisoner of Ben-Gvir and Smotrich like many say or that he himself shares their ideas,” Kanaaneh said.

Hamas stunned Israel last year when it attacked the south of the country in a rampage that killed approximately 1,200 Israelis and wounded thousands more. In response, Israel launched a massive war against Hamas. According to the Hamas-run Gaza Health Ministry, over 43,300 Palestinians have been killed since the war began and over 100,000 wounded. Since the beginning of the ground invasion into Gaza on Oct. 27, 2023, 380 Israeli soldiers have been killed according to the Israeli Foreign Ministry.

Hamas seems to have been dealt a severe blow during these 14 months of battle. Thousands of the dead in Gaza are believed to be terrorists, including senior Hamas leadership. The dire humanitarian situation in the territory is also threatening stability. For the terrorist organization, the timing of a deal, albeit a temporary one, is ripe.

Hamas is trying to survive, to stop the war in order to not cease [existing] as an organization

“Hamas is trying to survive, to stop the war in order to not cease [existing] as an organization,” Kanaaneh said.

Israel’s military is operating in several arenas of Gaza. The first is in the Philadelphi corridor, a narrow strip of land along Gaza’s border with Egypt, which served as Hamas’ main lifeline. Hamas used the corridor’s underground tunnel network and the aboveground crossing to smuggle in arms. In addition, Israel is also manning the Netzarim crossing, which essentially cuts Gaza in half.

“Here we see quite a lot of friction between the Israeli military and Palestinian civilians,” Nuriel explained.

Israeli forces have also been facing Hamas fighters in the north of the Gaza Strip, concentrating in Jabaliya, where soldiers continue to encounter significant resistance.

“This effort is never-ending,” Nuriel said. “There will always be terrorists. These efforts require a lot of manpower and resources.”

It’s unclear how long the Israeli military, overstretched by more than a year of war on multiple fronts, will be able to sustain such an effort. According to Nuriel, the need to carry on a military effort will bring to a head the issue of ultra-Orthodox Israelis’ exemption from mandatory military service. That issue is a tricky one for Netanyahu, since political leaders of the ultra-Orthodox make up some of the Israeli premier’s senior coalition partners. The addition of tens of thousands of ultra-Orthodox soldiers could help Israel maintain its presence in Gaza, but it might come at the price of toppling the Netanyahu government.

“There is no reason other than a political one for Israel to not agree to a cease-fire,” Kanaaneh said. “If a cease-fire with Hezbollah was reached, surely one with Hamas can be reached. Hamas poses much less of a threat to Israel after the war, while Hezbollah still poses a danger to Israel.”

Republican Senator Lindsey Graham, a close confidant of Trump’s, visited Israel last week, following widespread celebration in the Netanyahu camp regarding Trump’s election. Graham reportedly told Israeli leadership that Trump is interested in bringing an end to the war in Gaza in order to progress on other goals he has for the region.

This intention could put Netanyahu in a tricky position.

“Everything in Gaza now depends on Israel but also on the new US administration,” Kanaaneh said. “It depends on how much Trump wants a clean slate before he enters office and is less dependent on Hamas, which has not budged.”

Some far-right elements in Netanyahu’s coalition believe the Trump administration will give them a carte blanche to implement many of their contentious policies in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank. Trump’s past tenure in the White House was full of political victories for the Israeli right wing, including recognizing Israeli sovereignty over East Jerusalem and the Golan Heights and rejecting earlier US consensus that called West Bank settlements illegal.

If Trump demands the end of the war in Gaza, it will entail steps … that cannot be accepted by the current government

“Trump could present the Israeli government with an ultimatum that could seem to be about security but in the end will influence Israeli politics,” Nuriel said. “If Trump demands the end of the war in Gaza, it will entail steps, such as the release of Palestinian prisoners, that cannot be accepted by the current government. This will lead to an election in Israel, which could be something Trump actually wants.”

The popularity of the Israeli government initially plummeted after the October 7 attacks but has since recuperated. Surveys regarding Israeli positions on a possible deal with Hamas have painted a complex picture. While all Israelis want to see the hostages home, there is a heated debate on the price Israel should pay for such an outcome.

The Gaza war and the hostage crisis were discussed by outgoing US President Joe Biden and Trump at their meeting in the White House last month. It is an issue both would like to see concluded. For Netanyahu, the conclusion of the war in Gaza might come at a considerable political price. For Hamas, it is a matter of survival.