Tehran’s Empty Hormuz Threat Signals a Weakened Regime, Iran Expert Says
Despite Iran’s isolation and weakened proxies, Foreign Desk editor-in-chief Lisa Daftari warned that the Islamic Republic remains committed to its long war with Israel and the West
During the 12 days of war between Iran and Israel, many analysts expressed concerns that Iran might shut down the Strait of Hormuz, a key waterway that handles 20% of global oil shipments. Iranian officials warned of a potential shutdown, but those warnings eventually fell flat: not only did the strait remain open, but the threats themselves had significantly less of an effect on global markets than many had feared.
In an interview with The Media Line’s Felice Friedson, Middle East analyst Lisa Daftari explained how the lackluster response to the threat reveals Iran’s slipping influence.
“My favorite reaction was by the Chinese leader who said, don’t. That was his reaction,” Daftari, who serves as editor-in-chief of The Foreign Desk, said. “And that was the level of his engagement in this entire conflict was, ‘don’t.’ And I really appreciated that because it kind of put into context, again, that the regime is so isolated that even their best friends who are about to buy oil about to make them rich again, basically are giving them a slap on the wrist and saying, don’t even think about escalating this war to that because you’re going to be upsetting the global markets. We’re not about to sign on to that.”
China and Russia did not come to its aid at all. Even Hezbollah, its own pet project that it gifted 150,000 missiles to, didn’t come to its aid.
Similarly, Daftari finds the worries some have that Iran’s allies might supply it with a nuclear weapon to be overblown, given how limited its allies’ support was during the war. “China and Russia did not come to its aid at all,” she said. “Even Hezbollah, its own pet project that it gifted 150,000 missiles to, didn’t come to its aid. Therefore, they’re alone, they’re isolated. This was a great opportunity to truly diminish, if not get rid of this regime.”
As far back as the regime’s founding in 1979, the Islamic Republic has sought out proxies to spread its vision of Shia Islam. “They created their terror proxies, they created Hezbollah in Lebanon, and then we see Hamas in Gaza, the West Bank, you see Palestinian-Islamic Jihad that is supported by them. More recently, the Houthis in Yemen, insurgencies in Iraq and Syria,” she said. “And of course, their major presence in South America, at the footrest of the United States, wanting to have access to our continent here.”
She noted that the strategy of proxy warfare serves both offensive and defensive purposes for Iran. Offensively, the proxies allow them to spread their agenda and target “the big Satan and the little Satan”—the United States and Israel. Defensively, maintaining proxies allows Iran to keep the war away from its borders.
Israel’s recent military campaign struck hard at the heart of this strategy, Daftari said. “Israel, with its military capabilities, has diminished its major proxies, the Houthis, Hezbollah, and Hamas. Now they brought the war to Iranian soil because of the existential threat that the Iran regime presents to Israel,” she explained.
She described the conflict as “a climax of the October 7 war,” but cautioned that it does not signal the end of the threat Iran poses to the region and beyond. “For Israel, the security and to make sure that Iran does not have a nuclear weapon is a 24/7 job,” she said. “And it’s not something that ended with this 12-day war, although there were many, many achievements to be celebrated. A lot of progress was made.”
If this should happen again, if they should go forward again, we know that both Israel and the United States are on the same page. Zero tolerance for a nuclear weapon to be in the hands of the mullahs.
Most important, she said, is that the regime’s leaders have been put on warning. “If this should happen again, if they should go forward again, we know that both Israel and the United States are on the same page. Zero tolerance for a nuclear weapon to be in the hands of the mullahs,” she said.
Despite major accomplishments, questions remain over the status of Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, particularly its stores of enriched uranium. Daftari expressed no illusions that the war had reduced Iran’s uranium stock to zero—meaning that the regime is likely still on the path toward achieving a nuclear weapon.
“We had said even during the war, even before that, that any residual would probably mean that they would march forward,” she said. “Because even if we killed their nuclear program or their enrichment, we didn’t kill their motivation and their desire to have a nuclear weapon. For this regime, having a nuclear weapon is self-preservation.”
Understanding Iran’s internal logic regarding self-preservation is essential, she said. “They are sadistic, not suicidal. They want to remain in power. And knowing that is very important for the Western world in moving forward,” she explained.
Daftari also suggested that the timing of the ceasefire—shortly before the NATO summit—may have limited the campaign’s effectiveness. President Donald Trump likely wanted to bring the war to an end by the time the organization met, she said.
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“No one in this equation wanted an escalation,” she said. “The Iran regime certainly didn’t. They were getting their butts kicked. Israel didn’t want an escalation, but they did want to finish a defensive campaign. And the United States certainly didn’t want this to escalate. So with that being said, the United States caught everybody at a moment where everyone was pressured into a ceasefire. Now, does that mean that Israel’s campaign was finished? No. Does that mean that we got them down to zero capabilities? No.”
She voiced frustration with media portrayals of the operation, with critics questioning its efficacy. “One of the most upsetting things, or it’s just disappointing to watch, is the pool of reporters that are attacking Pete Hegseth and attacking Donald Trump over the accomplishments of this campaign,” she said. “Now, regardless of whether we took out 40%, 60%, 80%, the United States got involved because this is a core national security issue for the United States. Now, where is the unity in that? Where is the rallying around the flag like we saw on September 11?”
“These are the talking points of the mullahs right here in the media pool at the White House or at the Pentagon,” she continued. “And it is so crazy to watch. I’m not saying reporters have to be blind and close their eyes and say America is the best. That’s not it at all. We are trained to push back. We are trained to ask the important questions. But to take the position of, you know, ‘We failed, we’re the worst. This was in vain. We invaded a sovereign nation for no reason.’ It’s so misled.”
As Daftari sees it, President Trump’s actions during the war represent his strategic effectiveness. “I used to criticize Donald Trump for being too blunt, for saying everything up front,” she said. “And in this war, he said two weeks—it was two hours when he got involved in the strikes. He kind of diverted everybody, including the Iran regime. Now, I think it’s smart. We haven’t seen this kind of political power play from him, using political warfare as a tool, using messaging as a tool.”
Where critics were perplexed by President Trump’s willingness to enter into direct negotiations with Iran after himself pulling out of the last Iran deal, Daftari saw a strategic balancing act between diplomacy and force.
That kind of attempted diplomacy, and then following it up with military action—I think it was a smart move to have all options on the table. You’re dealing with an enemy that uses a lot of asymmetrical political warfare.
“That kind of attempted diplomacy, and then following it up with military action—I think it was a smart move to have all options on the table,” she said. “You’re dealing with an enemy that uses a lot of asymmetrical political warfare.”
Prior to the war with Israel, Iran’s uranium enrichment progressed slowly and discreetly. In the wake of the Israeli strikes, though, it may choose to pick up the pace. Daftari said her immediate response to news of the ceasefire was the sense that Israel must be prepared to act if it learns Iran has resumed attempts to create a nuclear weapon.
“The pace at which the Iran regime was working before was at a snail’s pace. Why? Because they wanted to stay under the radar,” she said. “The fact that they set up 12 sites, the fact that they went underground, the fact that they had 13-foot concrete walls, all because they wanted to move slowly and undetected. Now that might not be the case. And that is something, again, for Israel and the United States to watch.”
Many in the Iranian diaspora celebrated the chance to get rid of the regime, Daftari said. She recalled being in Paris when the war broke out, watching pro-monarchy Iranians wave both Israeli flags and flags of pre-revolutionary Iran. “So these Iranians who are of moderate Muslim descent holding the old Iranian flag with the lion and the sun and holding Israeli flags, one in each hand, and praising [Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu] for the attacks because they feel that by diminishing the regime’s assets, nuclear and military, that they can come one step closer to regime change,” she said.
Celebrations in the diaspora reflected a nuanced stance, she said. “They said, no, we’re not celebrating war, but we are happy that the killers of our children are being killed. And that just really paints that very complex issue that the Iranian people have, looking to Israel,” she explained.
While Iranians abroad celebrate the potential fall of the regime, Iranians still living in the Islamic Republic are facing a harsh internal crackdown.
That’s what happens when you wound the snake and you don’t kill the snake. A wounded snake will now come back to bite the people.
“That’s what happens when you wound the snake and you don’t kill the snake,” Daftari said. “A wounded snake will now come back to bite the people, and that is exactly what we saw.”
She said the Jewish community in Iran—estimated at around 9,000—is particularly vulnerable. According to reports, members of the Jewish community have faced threats, arrests, and home invasions, which Daftari characterized as “nothing new for the Jewish community living inside Iran.”
Reporting on Iran’s Jewish community raises dilemmas, since publicity can sometimes endanger lives. At the same time, Daftari said, bringing attention to cases of religious persecution can have real impact. She recalled one instance when her reporting on two Christians imprisoned in Iran led the regime to release them.
Many religious minorities in Iran face persecution, including Jews, Baháʼís, and Christians—especially those who converted to Christianity from Islam.
Daftari detailed a long list of those currently targeted by the regime. “So many people are under fire right now, whether it’s the political dissidents, those who are against the regime, those who dare to organize against the regime, college students,” she said.
She noted that many pro-Islamic Republic college students in the West fail to recognize the contradiction of supporting a regime that represses its own students. “I wish the Western world would connect the dots and understand the irony in that and how we are being manipulated and how they are conducting their political warfare campaigns here on American soil,” she said.
Had the war continued beyond 12 days, Daftari said, the Iranian people may have been positioned to rise up.
“The Iranian people felt as though, had this continued further, they would have been in a better place or better positioned,” she said. “During the 12 days, here was minimal access to internet, blackouts to keep the people off the streets. … The fear of the Iran regime—more than the United States, more than being fearful of Israel or its military—is fear that the Iranian people should rise up in a grassroots movement and to have a revolution.”
Shortly before the ceasefire was declared, Iran carried out a largely symbolic attack on the Al-Udeid US air base in Qatar, which, according to Daftari, was meant to save face in the wake of the American strikes. “The Qataris knew about it, America knew about it. Obviously, the Iran regime did not want it to be anything more than what it was.” she said. “But then they go back to the people and they say, ‘You know what, we showed them.’”
Anyone who sees the strike on the US air base as the sum of Iran’s retaliation is mistaken, Daftari said. She noted that Iranians are keenly aware that the conflict is far from over, as are many in the Arab world.
“The modern Arab world that has grown closer to Israel is waiting for the backlash of October 7 to die down so they can become signatory to the Abraham Accord, so they can have more prosperity and be part of a modern and moderate Middle East moving forward,” she said. “So the one thing that is standing in everyone’s way is this regime and its ability to sell oil, its ability to rake in money, its ability to put money into its proxies. And again, going forward, we have not solved any one of those problems.”
The Trump administration is very keen to get a win in the Middle East. They don’t want to come out, again, looking like they promoted a war. They want to come out like they are the ones creating deals, and good deals, and deals that lead to peace and prosperity.
Prime Minister Netanyahu recently stated that the conclusion of the war could create new opportunities for additional Middle Eastern countries to join the Abraham Accords. President Trump also seems to share those aspirations. “The Trump administration is very keen to get a win in the Middle East,” Daftari said. “They don’t want to come out, again, looking like they promoted a war. They want to come out like they are the ones creating deals, and good deals, and deals that lead to peace and prosperity, which the Abraham Accords did.”
Daftari, who played a role in the original Abraham Accords in 2020, said that attending the signing ceremony of the normalization agreements was “one of the most meaningful moments of my life.”
“That was such a myth buster for those who have covered the Middle East to say, wow, we can work around the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. We can move around these generations old tropes and animosities to have these deals,” she said. “And I do think it’s the way of the future.”
Saudi Arabia will likely take its time before normalizing relations with Israel, she said. “The Saudis are going to hold back for a while because it’s too soon for them. They have to show some sort of solidarity with the Palestinians and the Arab world in that sense,” she explained. “But I do think we’re going to have a few smaller countries sign as a symbolic move forward, because there has to be a momentum for the Abraham Accords.”
“I do think that one day we will lead up to the Cyrus Accords, which is a deal between the Iranian people and the Israelis. Why not? They have more in common than anyone else in the Middle East,” Daftari continued. “These are people who have had a long history of collaboration. They have had a history of friendship. And I think moving forward, there’s no reason to stop that. We just have one obstacle in the way, and that obstacle is sitting in Tehran.”
