Tensions Run High in Gulf as US Mobilizes Warship, Aircraft to Region
The move, a very important signal of US support, may not be enough to deter the Houthi movement from attacking Gulf states
The US Pentagon announced Tuesday that it would be deploy the USS Cole missile destroyer to the United Arab Emirates in response to recent Houthi attacks against Abu Dhabi.
In recent weeks, the Houthi rebels based in Yemen have launched cross-border missile and drone attacks aimed at targets in the Gulf. The attacks, which led to a number of civilian casualties, were condemned by the US. Saudi Arabia and the UAE responded with airstrikes against Houthi targets in Yemen, further raising the stakes.
The last attack came Monday during the historic visit of Israeli President Isaac Herzog to the UAE.
US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin in the announcement on Tuesday said that a “range of actions” was being considered in order to show US support for the UAE. Fifth-generation fighter aircraft also were to be deployed, according to the statement.
Austin voiced his “strong condemnation of these attacks and his commitment to the US-UAE strategic partnership.”
The Houthi movement aims to oust the current leadership in Yemen, which the rebels accuse of being corrupt and backed by Saudi Arabia and the US. The years-long civil war has led to the involvement of the Saudis, Emiratis and the US. Backed by Iran, the Houthis are perceived by the Gulf states, Israel and other members of the international community as a destabilizing force in the region.
For regional adversaries Iran and Saudi Arabia, Yemen is a stage for confrontation and clashing interests.
The US move may not be enough to deter the Houthi movement, however.
“This is no more than a symbolic act,” said Dr. Yoel Guzansky, senior research fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies. “It is too little, too late.”
The USS Cole is not equipped with the surface-to-air missiles that could efficiently thwart ballistic missile attacks. These attacks are the main threat from the Houthis at the moment.
“However symbolic, this is a very important signal of US support,” said Guzansky. “There are many more things that the US could have done. The steps they have announced are not what the Emiratis requested, which was to put the Houthis on the Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO) list and impose sanctions on them.”
This is no more than a symbolic act. It is too little, too late.
Under an American defense umbrella, the UAE would likely want to see more from the US.
“Until now, despite a significant presence in the region, the US has largely distanced itself,” said Dr. Moran Zaga, an expert on the Gulf states from the University of Haifa and Mitvim, the Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies. “This response is necessary but until the US will take offensive measures it is difficult to foresee a change in Houthi behavior.”
If the Emiratis decide to scale down their operations in Yemen, this could lead to a de-escalation in tensions. However, with a wide range of strategic interests in the country, such a move seems highly unlikely.
For the Emiratis, the convergence of interests with Saudi Arabia to curtail the rebels in Yemen is a leading motivator in continuing operations. Access to Yemen also gives the UAE greater regional and maritime reach.
According to Guzansky, the US refusal to take additional and more meaningful steps to deter the Houthis has to do with negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program currently underway in Vienna. Looking to seal a deal with Iran, the US will not want to create provocations that will hinder the talks. But US withdrawal from direct involvement in the current conflict is not only about keeping the talks alive.
“It runs deeper than that,” said Zaga. “Since the US involvement in Iraq and the subsequent departure from direct involvement in regional conflicts … there has not been a single US leader who undertook major action in the region.”
Emirati involvement in Yemen throughout the years has positioned the UAE not only against the Houthis, but also against ISIS and al-Qaida and, mainly, Iran. The recent normalization of relations between the UAE and Israel further highlights the current and shifting alignments in the Middle East. However, Israel will likely seek to keep its hands out of the Yemeni mud.
“Israel has no interest in getting involved,” said Zaga. “If it should join, it would only be part of a larger move led by the US.”
On Wednesday, Israeli Defense Minister Benny Gantz made a surprise visit to Bahrain. The trip was announced only after his arrival, a signal of the highly sensitive timing. According to a statement released by Israel’s Defense Ministry, a security cooperation agreement between the two countries will be signed during the two-day visit. Bahrain is home to the US Naval Force Central Command, which functions as the cornerstone of US defense policy in the Middle East.
For the first time ever, Israel participated this week in the International Maritime Exercise 2022, led by the US Navy with ships from 60 other countries, including countries Israel does not have relations with, such as Oman and Saudi Arabia.
Increasing Israeli involvement in the region could put it on a collision course with rival elements such as the Houthis.
If Israeli interests, such as maritime pathways, are threatened by increasing Houthi attacks in the region, things could change. For Israel, the neutralization of the Houthi threat is a wanted outcome, but it prefers to see it achieved by others.
Israel has no interest in getting involved. If it should join, it would only be part of a larger move led by the US.
“If the Houthis will make a mistake and target southern Israel or Israeli ships, then Israel will have the legitimacy to attack,” said Guzansky. “Otherwise, Israel will want to stay out of this matter.”
For the Emiratis, overt Israeli involvement is also unwanted.
“They have no interest to be seen as aligned with Israel on this matter,” Zaga said. “It will only strengthen claims against normalization. Israel can help with intelligence and defense systems … without taking direct action.”
Earlier this year, the UAE signed a deal with South Korea’s Defense Acquisition Program Administration (DAPA), acquiring medium-range Cheongung II KM-SAM missiles. This may not provide the protection it needs for short-range missiles from Yemen, something that could be provided by Israel’s Iron Dome air defense system. It is unclear whether such a deal between the UAE and Israel is possible, given the sensitivities that exist.
The Emiratis will need to handle the delicate balance of maintaining relations with Israel, while standing guard closer to home.
The coming days will tell whether the recent US moves will be sufficient as deterrence or if the region will see the escalation of a conflict that has the potential of drawing more actors into the arena.
