‘The Iranians Did Everything Wrong’: Gen. Avivi Details Iran’s Strategic Errors
Speaking shortly before the Israel-Iran ceasefire was announced, Brig. Gen. Amir Avivi of the Israel Defense and Security Forum laid out the series of errors that cost Iran its deterrence and left Hamas isolated
In just under two weeks—and after years of mounting pressure—Iran has suffered a series of devastating blows. Key military commanders and nuclear scientists have been killed, strategic infrastructure and nuclear sites destroyed, and the regime’s grip on power shaken. Iran’s once-feared regional influence has revealed itself to be lacking, with key proxies unable or unwilling to act on their sponsor’s behalf.
Speaking to The Media Line hours before President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, Brig. Gen. (res.) Amir Avivi told The Media Line that such a result wasn’t the predestined outcome of a clash between Iran and its archenemy, Israel. Had Iran acted more strategically, he said, the Islamic regime and its proxies probably “would have managed to bring Israel to the verge of destruction or destroy Israel.”
Avivi, founder and chair of the Israel Defense and Security Forum, described a series of miscalculations on the part of Iran that led to the regime’s significant losses. Chief among them was Hamas, an Iranian proxy group, initiating the October 7 attack before Iran had acquired nuclear weapons.
It would have been much wiser for them to move towards nuclear weapons while all the proxies are fully in readiness to attack. This would have put Israel, as it did for many years, in a big dilemma because then you attack Iran, you immediately go into a multifront war with all the proxies shooting at you at the same time.
“They could have waited a year or two to become completely nuclear,” he said. “It would have been much wiser for them to move towards nuclear weapons while all the proxies are fully in readiness to attack. This would have put Israel, as it did for many years, in a big dilemma because then you attack Iran, you immediately go into a multifront war with all the proxies shooting at you at the same time.”
The October 7 attack by Hamas also lacked coordination with other fronts, a move Avivi says doomed it from the start.
“I remember at 6:30 in the morning when the war started, the first question I asked myself—as someone who is leading an organization that two years before the war, saw the war is coming—was why isn’t Hezbollah attacking? Why aren’t the Iranians attacking? How can it be only Hamas? Once it was only Hamas, I can tell you that four hours into the October 7, it was crystal clear to me they lost the war and we’re going to win decisively. They did a huge mistake,” he said.
Hezbollah joined the war the next day but without coordination, leading to what Avivi described as the group’s effective collapse.
Iran’s own April 2024 ballistic missile barrage on Israel was another major error, Avivi said, since it provided Israel with more international support for addressing the Iranian threat head on.
“Once they shot us with ballistic missiles, the whole world saw what is Iran, what they are capable of,” he said. “Every European country understood that if they shoot Israel with ballistic missiles, they can shoot them as well.”
These missteps gave Israel the opportunity to strike back directly and gain confidence. “We saw the challenge,” he said. “We said to ourselves, okay, challenging, but we can deal with this. We retaliated an attack for the first time in Iran, and this gave us a lot of confidence. We can go all the way. We can attack. They are not able to stop us.”
“From that moment onwards, it was clear for Israel, we are able to win decisively, and this is our moment to move towards a full-scale attack,” Avivi continued. “Now, when Hezbollah lost and Syria fell, it was obvious to Israel that at this stage, Iran will make a run towards nuclear capabilities and ballistic capabilities because they lost all the strategic depth. Once they lost their proxies, they understood that if they want to survive, they need to become nuclear and fast.”
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From that moment onwards, it was clear for Israel, we are able to win decisively, and this is our moment to move towards a full-scale attack.
He said Israel had been planning to strike Iran in April, but initially held off due to US-Iran talks. President Trump had given Iran 60 days to negotiate. “When they didn’t do that, on the day 61, Israel, in coordination with the US, with the green light, launched the attack, and all the rest is history,” Avivi said.
In his view, Iran has now lost its deterrence ability.
“I don’t think they can really threaten anybody,” he said. “And I think that if they decide with the remaining capabilities they have to try to close Hormuz or shoot American bases or allies, Saudis maybe, Emirates, this will be the end of the regime. It’s obvious that if they do that, there will be definitely a decision to topple the regime. Are they going to do this huge mistake after so many mistakes? Maybe. But if they have any sense of reality, I don’t see them shooting American bases or closing Hormuz.”
Shortly after the interview with Avivi, Iran launched a symbolic strike on a US base in Qatar, coordinated in advance to avoid casualties. Former President Donald Trump dismissed the attack as “very weak,” writing on social media, “they’ve gotten it all out of their ‘system,’ and there will, hopefully, be no further HATE.”
Soon after President Trump announced the ceasefire, Iran fired another volley of missiles toward Israel. One impacted in the southern city of Beersheba, killing four.
Since the war began, 29 Israelis have been killed in Iranian strikes. Avivi said that number was significantly lower than anticipated.
“In all the scenarios we envisioned, that big war with Iran, we saw much, much bigger scenarios, with hundreds and hundreds of ballistic missiles shot every time, with devastation, with maybe thousands that could be killed and injured,” he said. While emphasizing that each casualty represented “a whole world,” he emphasized the hardiness of Israel’s air defense systems.
Israel proved itself to be remarkably resilient to Iranian ballistic missiles as well as Iranian drones, Avivi said. He noted that only one drone of the hundreds launched by Iran actually caused damaged in Israel. “We see the devastation in Russia and Ukraine from drone attacks, but the capabilities Israel developed to deal with this are phenomenal,” he said.
The interception rate for Iran’s ballistic missiles was lower, but still impressive. “We managed to hit 90% of these ballistic missiles, minimizing the hits in Israel,” Avivi said. “And at the same time, the idea is attacking firstly in Iran, destroying launchers. We destroyed more than 50% of the launchers. We destroyed whole industries that produce ballistic missiles, fuel, and the missiles themselves.”
Avivi confirmed that Israel had accomplished its primary objective of dismantling Iran’s nuclear capabilities.
“Together with the US, we managed to do so,” he said. “Israel is starting to signal that it’s about to reach all its goals, and Israel will want to end this once we reach all the goals. Israel is not going to agree to an attrition war. We’re not going to enable Iran to continuously shoot Israel, even if it’s one ballistic missile a week or something like that.”
Avivi emphasized that Israel’s objectives included not just crippling Iran’s nuclear program but also targeting the country’s missile production. “Iran was moving towards the production of 300 ballistic missiles a month. In a year, they would have been able to overwhelm Israel with ballistic missiles in a way that would have endangered Israel existentially. Combined with nuclear capabilities, this would have been, of course, devastating. Israel is not willing to face a threat like that, not nuclear and not ballistic missiles,” he said.
Earlier this week, the US struck Iran’s nuclear facilities at Isfahan, Natanz, and Fordo. While Iran has claimed the enriched uranium was removed beforehand, Avivi said the extent of the damage was still unclear.
“I would assume that Israel was monitoring and has very good intelligence of what’s going on, and they’re really monitoring everything that is happening around these nuclear sites,” he said. “The sites were destroyed. And I think this is pretty much a good success, really destroying their nuclear capabilities. They were on the verge of weaponizing the nine bombs. It was crucial to conduct this attack and destroy these sites.”
One objective that remains controversial is that of regime change. Early on in the war, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu appealed to the Iranian people to rise up against their leaders. President Trump on Sunday promoted the idea of regime change, but on Tuesday he told reporters that changing the regime would lead to “chaos.”
Avivi emphasized that while Israel cannot orchestrate regime change, it can help create the right conditions for the Iranian people to do so.
Israel cannot change the regime. They need to revolt and do a change of regime, but we can weaken the control of the regime over the society.
“I say create the terms and not do a regime change, because doing a regime change is a matter of the Iranian people,” he said. “They need to do something about it. Israel cannot change the regime. They need to revolt and do a change of regime, but we can weaken the control of the regime over the society.”
If the Islamic Republic stays in power, Iran will eventually return to its attempts to create a nuclear weapon, Avivi said. “This requires Israel, if we don’t topple the regime, we’ll have to end this on our terms,” he said.
While Israel can’t carry out regime change itself, he said, it can change the conditions on the ground. “We can make it easier for them to take decisions towards the change of regime, just as happened with Hezbollah. We weakened Hezbollah enough to create a reality where the Lebanese government has become much more emboldened and they are dealing with Hezbollah in ways that were unimaginable a year or two ago,” he said.
“At the end of the day, they need to do it,” Avivi continued. “They need to do it, and the problem is they’re not organized enough. They don’t have a clear position. They don’t have an agreed-upon leader, and this is the main problem and tragedy of the Iranian people. Eighty percent of them hate this regime, but they’re not organized enough to do something about it.”
Meanwhile, Israeli operations in Gaza continue. Avivi emphasized that even during the war with Iran, Israeli forces retrieved the bodies of several Israeli hostages held by Hamas.
He said Israel now controls 60% of the Gaza Strip and expects to soon control 75%. Its forces are systematically clearing out booby-trapped buildings, tunnels, and weapons infrastructure.
“Hamas will be impacted a lot by what’s going on in Iran, should enable us to reach a hostage deal that will bring back hostages,” Avivi said, “And Israel, I think, is moving steadily towards a clear, decisive win also in Gaza, and this war is going to be shortened by the big win against Iran. Once there is no Iranian backup to Hamas, they’re in a completely different reality, and this will impact what’s going on in Gaza.”
