Tom Barrack and the Gulf Capitals Reorder Post-Assad Syria
Syrian American entrepreneur Abdul Hafiz Sharaf: "When you combine American capital, Saudi political cover and Syrian labor and resources, you create the foundation for long-term stability. … it's not theory; it's business."
[Damascus] At the Manama Dialogue last weekend, Tom Barrack — the US ambassador to Turkey and a longtime Trump confidant who has emerged as one of Washington’s most active voices on post-Assad Syria — delivered a message that Damascus heard as both promise and ultimatum: “There is no Plan B for Syria — only integration.”
The remark, delivered to a Gulf audience still adjusting to the speed of Bashar Assad’s December collapse, exposed a contest over who will define Syria’s re-entry into the regional order. On one side stand Washington and Riyadh, armed with reconstruction capital and political guarantees. On the other are Moscow and Ankara, still wielding security leverage across a fragmented Syrian map.
Since 2004, Bahrain’s Manama Dialogue — organized by the International Institute for Strategic Studies — has served as the opening act of the Gulf’s annual security forum season. This year’s session, themed “Managing Transitions in the Levant,” highlighted Bahrain’s effort to act as a modest broker among Washington, Riyadh and Jerusalem. The conversation now moves to Abu Dhabi later this month for debates on regional security architecture, before concluding in December at Qatar’s Doha Forum. Manama’s coming term on the UN Security Council in 2026, alongside the UAE, will give the Gulf a double vote on resolutions involving Syria, Lebanon and Iran.
Barrack, whose position in Ankara has given him unique access to Turkey’s regional role as both enabler and guardian of Syria’s new government, told delegates that Syria had “moved from guerrilla warfare and fatigues to statesmanship.” He called the country’s transition “a leap from a payphone to Starlink” — a nation of 25 million poised for “new opportunity” backed by President Trump’s directive to “give this man a chance.”
His influence has grown beyond traditional diplomatic channels. Over recent months, Barrack has worked to align Turkish and Saudi interests on Syria, positioning himself as the architect of what he calls an “investment-led stabilization model.” From Ankara, he has coordinated closely with both Turkish officials who backed the opposition’s advance and Gulf capitals now offering reconstruction finance — a dual role that has made him Washington’s de facto point person on Syria’s political and economic reintegration.
Turkey was responsible for al-Sharaa being able to take over. Both Turkey and Saudi are now playing well together — we need this tapestry of Syria to work.
“Turkey was responsible for al-Sharaa being able to take over,” Barrack said, crediting Ankara’s mediation. “Both Turkey and Saudi are now playing well together — we need this tapestry of Syria to work.”
Syrian-American entrepreneur Abdul Hafiz Sharaf, speaking to The Media Line from Riyadh, described an emerging form of business diplomacy linking Washington, Riyadh and Damascus. “I just returned from Syria with a group of American and Syrian American investors and private equity managers,” Sharaf said. “We met officials in Damascus to explore opportunities across energy, infrastructure and consumer markets. The appetite is real — Syria is like a market frozen in the 1990s, waiting to reopen.”
He said Saudi Arabia is taking a direct role in facilitating those contacts and providing political and financial cover. “At this year’s Future Investment Initiative, Syria was placed at the forefront of the program,” said Sharaf. “Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman wants Saudi investors to re-engage, offering guarantees and insurance to operate safely. Riyadh sees this not only as commerce but as normalization through economics.”
Sharaf confirmed that a Saudi-Syrian Business Council is taking shape and that both Crown Prince Mohammed and President Ahmed al-Sharaa will meet US officials in Washington to discuss remaining sanctions and joint commercial frameworks. “When you combine American capital, Saudi political cover and Syrian labor and resources, you create the foundation for long-term stability,” Sharaf said. “That’s what Barrack means by integration — it’s not theory; it’s business. The Americans bring technology, the Saudis bring scale and guarantees, and the Syrians bring a population ready to rebuild.”
Beyond infrastructure, he added, the partnerships are reshaping perceptions. “For years, Syria was viewed only through the lens of war and sanctions. Now we’re starting to see it through markets, logistics and trade,” he said. “That’s how stability becomes sustainable — through shared interests, not speeches.”
At Manama, Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani framed his government’s approach as balanced diplomacy — cooperation without dependency. “We want Syria to be an efficient, effective state, far from any foreign interference,” he said. “We will maintain adherence to the 1974 disengagement agreement and seek a security framework that enables rebuilding, not new facts on the ground.”
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He said President al-Sharaa’s forthcoming White House visit — the first by a Syrian leader in more than 80 years — will center on sanctions relief, reconstruction and counterterrorism coordination. “Syria only needs the hindrances to be lifted — the sanctions to be lifted — and Syrians will lead the reconstruction,” al-Shaibani said.
On Israel, he pledged restraint within existing lines, referencing the 1974 accord brokered after the Yom Kippur War that established a buffer zone on the Golan Heights. The language was carefully calibrated — neither accepting Israel’s expanded presence nor threatening confrontation.
The Gulf vision for Syria’s future came into sharper focus through statements from Saudi and Emirati ministers linking reconstruction to stability and sovereignty. “A united Syria, free from external interference, remains essential for the stability of the Levant,” said Dr. Manal Radwan, Saudi Arabia’s deputy foreign minister. “For both Syria and Lebanon to face the tremendous challenges ahead, Israel must withdraw from Syrian and Lebanese territories in full respect of international law and sovereignty.”
Syria only needs the hindrances to be lifted — the sanctions to be lifted — and Syrians will lead the reconstruction
Dr. Anwar Gargash, diplomatic adviser to the UAE president, added: “Considering that last year in December we saw the fall of the Assad regime in Syria, the only sustainable path forward is one rooted in partnership, regional cooperation, economic integration and political dialogue that transcends rivalries.”
Their remarks revealed the balance Gulf capitals are attempting to maintain: support for Syria’s new government paired with insistence on institutional reform. Both ministers linked future Gulf investment to transparent governance and credible administration in Damascus, signaling that political rehabilitation will depend on measurable economic performance.
Syrian analyst Ayman Abdel Nour, founder of the reformist platform All4Syria, told The Media Line from Dubai that Damascus understands its declarations of neutrality will be tested. “Ultimately, Damascus defines its alliances,” Abdel Nour said. “The government wants ‘zero problems’ and not to be part of any axis, as President al-Sharaa and the foreign minister keep saying.”
He pointed to a sequence of foreign visits intended to project balance: “Al-Sharaa goes to Washington in November, then the foreign minister to Brazil, London and Beijing after the president’s recent trip to Russia. That’s the pattern — engage every major power without aligning exclusively with any.”
According to Abdel Nour, the real test will be whether this balancing act can survive Barrack’s “integration” push and the Gulf’s conditional investments. “Everyone wants Syria back in the regional system,” he said, “but on their own terms.”
Malik al-Abdeh, editor-in-chief of Syria in Transition, told The Media Line from London that Barrack’s initiative effectively turns Syria into a testing ground for a US-Gulf model of reconstruction diplomacy. “Syria is not just being folded into the post-Iran architecture,” al-Abdeh said. “It’s becoming one of its main supporting beams. That’s why al-Sharaa is in an advantageous position — and why he’ll keep playing multiple patrons against each other.”
He described the approach as “Hafez Assad’s playbook updated for a multipolar world.” Hafez Assad, who ruled Syria from 1971 until his death in 2000, was known for playing Cold War superpowers against each other to maintain Syrian autonomy. “So far, al-Sharaa has hedged his bets and will continue to do so,” al-Abdeh said. “The Russian-Turkish track and Arab cover from Saudi Arabia let him resist Israel’s tougher demands. Even the US won’t always get its way.”
So far, al-Sharaa has hedged his bets and will continue to do so
From inside Syria, however, the diplomatic momentum collides with harder realities on the ground. Jaafar Khaddour, a Syrian academic and politician, told The Media Line that sovereignty remains constrained by external actors. “Our sovereignty today extends only as far as control and authority,” Khaddour said. “External powers manage all the major files — the Americans and French in the northeast, Turkey in the north and Israel across the southern frontier.”
Khaddour argued that foreign sponsorship mirrors patterns that have long defined Syrian politics. “Hafez Assad survived by balancing Washington and Moscow; Bashar relied on Moscow and Tehran,” he said. “Now Turkey sustains the system as part of its own expansionist vision, seeing Syria as a land of new opportunities.”
He pointed to economic pressures that threaten to undermine the optimism surrounding Gulf investment. Electricity costs have jumped 60-fold since the transition, while unemployment remains widespread and agricultural output in eastern regions like Deir ez-Zor barely reaches a quarter of prewar levels. “Prices have risen to irrational levels, and electricity costs keep climbing,” Khaddour said. “The state invests heavily in power infrastructure but forces citizens — already unemployed or underpaid — to carry the burden. Reform should start from the base of the pyramid, not from citizens’ pockets.”
Regarding normalization with Israel, Khaddour was skeptical. “At most there could be limited security arrangements. Israel uses the threat of extremists to justify staying in the south. Sanctions tied to normalization hang like a sword over Syrians’ necks, pushing Damascus to concede before fixing our domestic crises.”
His assessment of the new government was pointed but measured. “What people call balanced diplomacy is political immaturity unless national foundations grow from within,” Khaddour said. He warned that Syria’s latest transition “came from the balance of external forces, not from Syrian will,” adding that the leadership “focuses on polishing its image abroad while daily life at home keeps deteriorating.”
What people call balanced diplomacy is political immaturity unless national foundations grow from within
Economists estimate Syria’s reconstruction will cost between $250 billion and $400 billion, with GDP now less than a third of its 2010 level. The International Monetary Fund and World Bank have sent technical teams to Damascus, and officials say the country is preparing to rejoin the SWIFT payments system for the first time in 14 years. Saudi Arabia and Qatar have cleared Damascus’ arrears and pledged salary support for public-sector workers, while Riyadh has announced $6 billion in early-stage projects in energy, housing and telecommunications.
The new government’s National Committee for the Disappeared is investigating more than 150,000 missing-person cases, and a Transitional Justice Commission aims to break cycles of revenge. Yet for ordinary Syrians, power shortages, unemployment and soaring costs compete with diplomatic breakthroughs for attention.
For Barrack, this represents the core of his “peace through profit” vision. But Syrians like Khaddour warn that outside money alone cannot buy sovereignty or stability. From Sharaf’s boardroom optimism to Abdel Nour’s balancing logic and al-Abdeh’s caution about great-power maneuvering, every voice shares a single question: Can foreign-backed integration deliver relief to Syrians themselves?
As Foreign Minister al-Shaibani told the conference, “Syria only needs the hindrances to be lifted — and Syrians will lead the reconstruction.” Whether regional powers allow that independence to last may determine whether Syria’s new chapter is a renaissance — or just a new alignment of old ambitions.
