Trump’s Gulf Visit Raises Concerns Among Israelis
Israel fears being sidelined as Trump pursues regional deals with Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE that may shift the Middle East power balance
President Donald Trump landed in Saudi Arabia Tuesday and is set to visit Qatar and the United Arab Emirates later this week. His Middle East tour skips Israel, raising concerns in Jerusalem that the US is making major regional moves without it.
Trump faces a region in the midst of a major transformation and a lengthy conflict between Israel and the Palestinians that has spilled over into many other arenas. High on his agenda is the American economy and a push to secure massive investments from the Gulf countries. In Israeli eyes, this might lead to dangerous concessions.
Returning to an Iran deal
The US, the Gulf states, and Israel are all interested in curbing Iran’s influence in the region. Israel is concerned that President Trump’s desire to calm the brewing storm in the region will have him reach an agreement similar to the one he pulled out of in his last administration.
Israel was highly critical of the 2015 Iran deal, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). Under that deal, Iran agreed to put limits on its nuclear program and to allow the International Atomic Energy Agency to monitor its nuclear facilities. In return, Iran received relief from international sanctions.
President Trump withdrew from the deal in 2018, arguing that it did not do enough to prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon. Seven years later, it seems that the US may now be more willing to tolerate a nuclear Iran than Israel is.
The US administration has sent mixed signals on whether it will agree to a certain degree of Iranian uranium enrichment and whether an agreement would allow Iran to have a civilian nuclear program. Israel has been clear that it does not want to see a deal that leaves Iran with any uranium enrichment capability and has threatened to attack Iranian nuclear facilities should any future agreement not be to its liking.
Israel is believed to have the capabilities to carry out such a complex attack over 1,000 miles from its borders. But it will likely prefer to have American support if it chooses to thwart a nuclear Iran.
“Trump will hear from the Saudis, the Emiratis, and the Qataris that they want to see an agreement, without an Israeli attack,” Yaki Dayan, former diplomat and chief of staff to Israeli Foreign Ministers Silvan Shalom and Tzipi Livni, told The Media Line. “For Israel, any agreement reached with Iran will have implications on Saudi Arabia, which will want to have exactly the same.”
According to former Israeli Ambassador to the US Danny Ayalon, Israel’s desired outcome of a completely nuclear-free Iran is no longer an option.
We are much closer to seeing a new version of the JCPOA. This is very bad for Israel, because it did not address the issues of Iranian ballistic missiles and its terrorist activities and lets Iran keep all of its nuclear infrastructure.
“We are much closer to seeing a new version of the JCPOA,” Ayalon told The Media Line. “This is very bad for Israel, because it did not address the issues of Iranian ballistic missiles and its terrorist activities and lets Iran keep all of its nuclear infrastructure.”
President Trump has suggested that the US would support Israel in carrying out attacks on Iran if needed, but that sentiment will be irrelevant if the US agrees to a deal with Iran. Being forced to carry out an operation without the support of the US would strain Israel.
“Clearly a joint operation would be more effective both militarily and in the diplomatic message that it conveys,” Ayalon said. “As long as negotiations are going on, Israel cannot attack and will also have difficulty doing so if an agreement is reached.”
Moving forward with Saudi Arabia—with or without Israel
President Trump is looking to secure a $1 trillion investment from Saudi Arabia and a $100 billion arms package.
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Israel is concerned that Trump may give the green light to Saudi Arabia to develop a civilian nuclear program. Officials in Jerusalem fear that a civil program could quickly lead to the development of nuclear weapons technology, which could later reach enemy nations in the region.
A nuclear arms race in the Middle East is a source of great worry to Israel. Believed to possess its own significant nuclear arsenal, the Jewish state is determined to hang on to its strategic advantage against its many adversaries in the region.
Dayan said that the arms package, which is expected to include F-35 fighter jets and other systems, will dampen Israel’s military advantage. “This is without a doubt very worrisome,” he said.
Watching from the sidelines, Israel is also concerned that the Saudis could use the Palestinian issue as a bargaining chip when seeking concessions from Trump, perhaps in the form of a defense pact between the two countries.
Israel and Saudi Arabia do not have diplomatic relations. In recent years, attempts to normalize relations between the two have gained momentum, driven by mutual concerns over Iran and facilitated by US mediation, including by the Biden administration. The war between Hamas in Gaza and Israel that erupted in October 2023 created a major setback in that attempt.
Saudi Arabia insists on progress toward Palestinian statehood as a prerequisite for normalization. That seems to be a nonstarter for Israel, which seems set on continuing the war in Gaza and extinguishing the possibility of a Palestinian state.
President Trump seems to have grown tired of that impasse.
Trump is looking to move forward. He would very much like to make progress on normalization in cooperation with Israel, but he needs quiet in Gaza for that and since that is not in reach, he will make direct progress with the Saudis instead.
“Trump is looking to move forward,” Dayan said. “He would very much like to make progress on normalization in cooperation with Israel, but he needs quiet in Gaza for that and since that is not in reach, he will make direct progress with the Saudis instead.”
It appears Trump is no longer set on treating Saudi recognition of Israel as a precondition for a Saudi civilian nuclear program.
Last month, US Energy Secretary Chris Wright made his first official visit to Riyadh. During that visit, both countries agreed to sign a memorandum of understanding regarding cooperation on various energy issues, including civilian nuclear technology. Speaking at a press conference, Wright said that the US and Saudi Arabia share “many aligned interests.”
A Palestinian state?
There have been reports that President Trump could announce American recognition of a Palestinian state during his visit to the Middle East. The details aren’t clear, and it’s uncertain how much truth there is to the reports. But the rumors have led to a knee-jerk reaction in Israel.
Israel’s current far-right government completely negates the possibility of a Palestinian state. It maintains that the Palestinian Authority, which currently controls some territories in the West Bank, is a sponsor of terrorism and could not be trusted with a state of its own. In the Israeli telling, a Palestinian state would serve as a launchpad for more terror attacks, especially if Israel were to lose control over West Bank borders and airspace.
Announcing the US recognition of a Palestinian state could also affect the course of the war in Gaza. On Tuesday, several media outlets quoted unnamed US State Department officials saying the US and Saudi Arabia are “fully coordinated” regarding the conclusion of the war in Gaza.
Until now, the US has insisted that the establishment of a Palestinian state should follow negotiations between Israelis and Palestinians and not be a unilateral move.
Talk of Palestinian statehood may be premature, especially as with the war still raging. Lack of Israeli cooperation would make the move somewhat futile. But Trump could still promise the Saudis greater influence in shaping the future of the region once the war is over. The war has resulted in significant regional shifts with Israel pushing back much of Iran’s influence through its terrorist proxy groups in Lebanon, Syria and Gaza.
“The US wants the Saudis to fill in where Iran has left a vacuum, and that includes Gaza,” Dayan said. “The Saudis and the Americans see eye to eye both on political and economic issues.”
If Israel wants to have a say in these developments, it will need to reach a ceasefire with Hamas, Dayan said. Instead of doing that, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has vowed to intensify the war in Gaza even further.
Ayalon noted that Trump has walked back his “maximalist approach” toward Hamas, which was characterized by the threat that “all hell would break loose” if the hostages weren’t returned.
Israel will pay the price for this. If the US is not standing behind Israel, this will result in the strengthening of Hamas.
“Once that didn’t happen, Trump completely changed his position, making the chances of releasing the hostages slimmer,” Ayalon said. “Israel will pay the price for this. If the US is not standing behind Israel, this will result in the strengthening of Hamas.”
A gift from Qatar
President Trump is expected to accept the unprecedented gift of a customized Boeing 747-8 from Qatar. News of the gift has sparked a heated debate within the US as well as in the international arena.
“Such moves create obligations,” Ayalon said, adding that the US administration’s position is “guided by interests, pushing problematic issues aside.”
Israel is eyeing these developments with a watchful eye.
“This is highly concerning,” Dayan said. “The US sees Qatar as a major partner, both for Trump on a personal level and political level. Qatar is a major supporter of radical, fundamentalist Sunni Islam.”
Qatar is home to Al Udeid Air Base, a major American asset in the Middle East. The country is also one of Hamas’ greatest sponsors and a promoter of Muslim Brotherhood ideology throughout the world.
The Qataris have a sympathetic ear in Trump, and he listens to them.
President Trump’s visit will help Qatar bolster its position as a mediator in the region. “The Qataris have a sympathetic ear in Trump, and he listens to them,” Dayan said.
The coming days will reveal developments in the US’s relationship with Israel and the Gulf states, which will have serious implications on the region.
“Israel is being bypassed and being presented with facts on the ground,” Ayalon said. “This is coming at the expense of its position in the region and its national security. When there is such a gap between Israel and the US, this creates a dent in Israel’s deterrence.”
