Trump’s Return: A New Military Equation for Israel and the Middle East
While Iran and its proxies struggle under renewed pressure, Israel must navigate Trump’s expectations, delivering strategic and diplomatic successes, to secure promised support
After a contentious election, Donald Trump has been elected the 47th president of the United States, a decision already resonating globally, especially in the Middle East. As the divisive rhetoric of his campaign fades, regional military strategies are expected to shift to align with the priorities of the new US commander-in-chief.
To provide a nuanced perspective on how Trump’s presidency may alter the Middle East’s military landscape, The Media Line interviewed six experts from the US, Israel, Iran, and the UAE. Their insights suggest a potential for significant regional shifts. Trump’s Middle East foreign policy is expected to mirror his first term, focusing on support for Israel and counterterrorism efforts while adapting to the current diplomatic and military realities.
In Israel, a new diplomatic dynamic is emerging: Trump’s unwavering support remains a constant. Yet, as a deal-maker aiming to cement his legacy, he may urge Israel to conclude its military operations in Gaza and southern Lebanon. This could pave the way for a historic normalization agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia under the Abraham Accords framework, a step many see as transformative for regional peace.
A Renewed Military Equation
Trump’s election is unlikely to alter the core dynamics of US-Israel military cooperation, according to Dr. Neil Quilliam, a Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Programme associate fellow at Chatham House. “The US has designated Israel as a major non-NATO ally, and it is clearly committed to Israel’s security. This will continue. The new Trump administration may be less inclined to scrutinize the nature of Israeli military operations in Gaza, Lebanon, and other theatres, but that does not necessarily mean that it will lend any more material support to Israel,” Quilliam told The Media Line.
Jeff Tiegs, a retired US Army officer with 28 years of experience in Special Operations and Delta Force and the president of Skull Games, a task force supporting law enforcement, shared with The Media Line his views on US-Israel relations under Trump. “Most of the discussions following the 2024 election are about domestic issues. Still, I believe that the subject of Israel was a decisive issue for many and swayed votes into the Trump victory. Make no mistake, the ambiguous and seemingly tenuous support to Israel by the Biden-Harris administration was also rejected.”
Reflecting on Trump’s first term, Tiegs remarked, “Israel’s adversaries observed with dismay as US support materialized through the Abraham Accords. However, the Biden administration, which followed, quickly adjusted diplomatic approaches.”
According to Tiegs, this shift signaled “a weakening of support for Israel that leaders like Hezbollah’s Hassan Nasrallah and Hamas’s Yahya Sinwar saw as vulnerabilities. October 7 marked a violent outcome of this perceived ambiguity. Now Trump is back and, being his last possible term as US president, he will be even more committed to strong, clear, bold, and unambiguous support to Israel.”
Widely regarded as a staunch supporter of Israel with close ties to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Trump’s administration is anticipated to bolster Israel’s regional military standing while pursuing further normalization with Arab nations through additional Abraham Accords.
Highlighting the resilience of US-Israel military cooperation, Quilliam stated, “while President Joe Biden was mildly critical of Israel, he made it clear that he wholeheartedly supported it. Trump will do the same but may expect a little more back in return, being the deal maker he is.”
The upcoming administration is expected to reinforce and clarify US-Israel military relations, “especially in areas of military cooperation, including increased arms sales, intelligence sharing, and possibly even joint military exercises,” Tiegs added.
“US-Israel military ties, rooted in enduring strategic, security, and political interests, will return to a predictable and robust level under a second Trump presidency, building on his previous term’s initiatives,” Tiegs said.
Chief Superintendent (ret.) Asher Ben Artzi, former director of the Israel National Police’s INTERPOL Division and a research associate at Reichmann University’s Institute for Counter-Terrorism, told The Media Line, “President Trump is unpredictable. Still, his commitment to Israel is greater than other American leaders, and he will not hesitate to confront Arab countries or Iran if they try to harm Israel.”
Ben Artzi further noted that while President Biden supported Israel, his assistance often came with conditions. In contrast, Trump’s commitment appears more personal, “rooted in his family and extends to the State of Israel itself. I think he also has a personal commitment to the idea of Zionism. So, in my view, this will have a very positive impact on Israel.”
More Abraham Accords and Support
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US-Israel military cooperation is likely to persist, though possibly in a different form from the past year, according to Professor Kobi Michael, a senior researcher at Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies and the Misgav Institute. “I’m not sure President Trump will want to provide the same level of support without cost, such as the current $14 billion in aid. A lot will depend on Israel’s progress in Gaza and southern Lebanon by January 2025. If Israel also takes decisive action against Iran by January 20, Trump may be more inclined to continue military support by supplying American equipment, essentially paid for with American dollars,” Michael told The Media Line.
Ehtesham Shahid, an independent analyst based in Dubai, concurs that the US-Israel diplomatic dynamic is unlikely to shift significantly. “Arms sales to Israel are essentially a bipartisan issue, and even Trump’s first term didn’t change that much. It is a by-product of Israel’s threat perception shared with US administrations,” he told The Media Line.
The Iranian Regime and Its Proxies
Shahin Modarres, director of the Iran Desk at ITSS Verona, predicts significant changes in the Middle East’s military landscape. “His [Trump’s] return to office is expected to impact the Islamic Republic and its network of proxy groups, including Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis, and numerous militant factions in Iraq and Syria. Trump’s likely reactivation of hardline policies against the Islamic Republic—through economic sanctions, military support for its regional adversaries, and diplomatic pressure—will reshape the strategies of these proxy groups,” he told The Media Line.
“Trump’s first administration imposed a stringent ‘maximum pressure’ campaign on the Islamic Republic, a policy that could now see further intensification,” Modarres added.
Tiegs argued that Trump’s “America First” agenda and focus on reducing foreign assistance will shape US support for Israel in multifront conflicts with Iran-aligned forces, including Hezbollah and Hamas. This support, he explained, hinges on Israel’s role in countering Iranian influence in the region.
Israel’s security needs, particularly in addressing threats from Iran, Hezbollah, and Hamas, are likely to remain a priority under Trump’s policies
“Israel’s security needs, particularly in addressing threats from Iran, Hezbollah, and Hamas, are likely to remain a priority under Trump’s policies, even within a more nationalist, ‘America First’ framework,” Tiegs added.
Quilliam expects the US to reinstate its maximum pressure campaign on Iran, potentially with greater intensity. “It will most likely be ‘maximum pressure plus,’” he said, adding that this approach aligns with Israel’s interests and that Netanyahu would likely present detailed recommendations on next steps.
As a self-described dealmaker, Trump may pursue a “grand bargain” with Iran that fails to address Israel’s security concerns comprehensively. Such a deal—falling short of dismantling Iran’s nuclear program, ending support for proxy groups, or halting its ballistic missile program—would pose a significant threat, Quilliam said. “Israel has no interest in a US-brokered deal with Iran unless it involves regime change,” he added.
Modarres noted that severe economic sanctions, particularly secondary sanctions targeting companies doing business with Iran, have significantly weakened its economy. “With Trump returning to office, the Islamic Republic’s access to resources is likely to be further restricted, which would constrain its ability to fund and equip its proxy groups,” he added.
Iran’s proxy groups face a unique challenge with Trump’s return. While they recognize his firm pro-Israel stance, they also recall that Trump, despite his “maximum pressure” campaign, was open to negotiating with Iran.
“Trump previously offered the possibility of a new agreement that would cover its nuclear program as well as its ballistic missile capabilities and regional activities,” Modarres said.
Trump’s return may reinforce this cautious stance among Islamic Republic-aligned proxies, making them more open to limited truces or strategic pauses
This dual perception of Trump as an immovable adversary and a willing negotiator has influenced some proxy groups’ behavior. For instance, the Houthis in Yemen declared a cease-fire in 2022, recognizing the benefit of reducing hostilities during diplomatic uncertainty. “Trump’s return may reinforce this cautious stance among Islamic Republic-aligned proxies, making them more open to limited truces or strategic pauses,” Mondarres concluded.
Trump’s generosity regarding military aid to Israel may not match last year’s aid, but “if Israel is perceived as a strategic asset and shows success in the region, particularly against Iran, it would likely facilitate Trump’s continued support, possibly even at an expanded scale,” Shahid said.
Washington’s unbridled military, political, and diplomatic support for Israel has been a bipartisan matter for ages, and Trump is not likely to change that overnight, Shahid also believes. “The ‘reduction in foreign assistance’ call has more to do with fixing the US economy. However, the US is expected to continue its support for neutralizing outfits such as Hamas and Hezbollah.”
The Saudis
While Iran’s influence is likely to be checked, Trump’s ambitions in the Middle East also extend to forging new alliances.
If Israel remains mired in conflict in Gaza, Lebanon, and Iran, it may complicate Trump’s stance, according to Michael. “Trump envisions a new regional architecture centered on normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia, and he’s likely willing to pressure Israel to achieve this vision.”
Trump’s ability to progress with his desired Abraham Accords between Israel and Saudi Arabia “will depend on whether Israel chooses to curb its military quests and give diplomacy a chance. In that case, there will be many takers for a negotiated settlement. However, if escalation is its [Israel’s] strategy moving forward, it will alarm its adversaries and fence-sitters,” Shahid explained.
Quilliam anticipates that Trump will want to pick up from where he left off and reinvigorate the Abraham Accords. Therefore, resolving the conflict in Gaza and southern Lebanon would be an expected prerequisite to any talks.
Saudi Arabia will be next on the list and be seen as the ‘crown jewel’ of the Accords
“Saudi Arabia will be next on the list and be seen as the ‘crown jewel’ of the Accords, though it would likely require its own moniker. We can expect the president-elect to invest time and energy into brokering a deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia. Still, the environment has changed completely since his first presidency, making the prospect of success practically zero. Until Israel’s wars end and the Palestinians are firmly on track toward Palestinian statehood, any efforts at expanding the Abraham Accords will be wasted,” said Quilliam.
As Trump prepares to take office again, the Middle East faces a significant shift in its military and diplomatic dynamics. For Israel, his presidency promises renewed support coupled with heightened expectations for deepened regional alliances, particularly with Saudi Arabia. However, Trump’s approach to foreign aid and military support may require Israel to demonstrate both strategic success and efforts toward de-escalation, especially in its conflicts with Iran and its proxies.
Trump’s return signals a pivotal moment where Israel’s actions will not only shape its security but also redefine the broader geopolitical balance in the Middle East, creating both challenges and opportunities for peace.
