Turkey Pushes for Black Sea Grain Deal Renewal in Hope of Cheaper Prices

In Ukraine, the Turkish foreign minister says the lapsed deal is a priority, and reports say the Turkish president may visit Russia to discuss it, but analysts say Russia will want Western concessions

Turkey is pushing for Russia to renew the lapsed Black Sea Grain Initiative in the hope of obtaining better prices on agricultural imports, analysts told The Media Line.

On Friday, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan visited Kyiv and said that there was no viable alternative to the deal, and that renewing it was a priority for Turkey. At the same time, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said that Kyiv was working on alternative routes but that renewing the Black Sea route would be the optimal solution.

Earlier, Turkey’s state news agency, citing unnamed diplomatic sources, reported that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan had said that Fidan might also visit Russia to discuss the deal.

Meanwhile, Russian state news agency TASS quoted a Russian government spokesperson as saying that a meeting between President Vladimir Putin and Erdoğan was being prepared and would happen “soon.” It also reported that a Turkish government source had said it was possible the meeting would be held in the Black Sea coastal city of Sochi, Russia, on Sept. 4.

The Black Sea Grain Initiative is one of the few diplomatic achievements reached in the ongoing war since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022. With the war halting grain exports from both Russia and Ukraine, two of the world’s biggest grain exporters, and threatening massive food shortages in vulnerable countries, the United Nations and Turkey helped broker the Black Sea Grain Initiative, a deal in which Russia agreed to allow the export of grains and related foodstuffs from Ukraine’s Black Sea ports out through Turkey’s Bosporus strait. By mid-July 2023, more than 1,000 voyages had successfully left Ukrainian ports, carrying nearly 33 million tons of grain and other food products to 45 countries. However, that month Russia refused to renew the deal unless its demands were met, and when they were not, the deal lapsed.

Özgür Ünlühisarcıklı, the Ankara office director for the German Marshall Fund, a US think tank, said that Turkey might be able to get better prices on agricultural products from Russia and Ukraine if it succeeds in renewing the deal.

Turkey itself has been in a financial crisis for several years, with food and other prices rising drastically, soaring inflation, and a falling currency.

Ünlühisarcıklı said that Turkey is also seeking to renew the deal because of the positive attention it received from its earlier role in the negotiations, which helped the country cultivate an image of being a facilitator on the global stage.

“Turkey would also increase its value and its reliability [and] importance within its transatlantic community, and it could be part of a broader picture in which Turkey is trying to normalize its relations with the United States and the European Union,” he said.

However, he cautioned that achieving a new deal may not be possible for Turkey, because of Russian demands for Western concessions.

Russia and NATO-member Turkey have strengthened relations in recent years, with the Turkish president moving further away from Western allies. Ankara has maintained ties with Moscow throughout the war in Ukraine, and Erdoğan often speaks by telephone with Putin, who supported the Turkish president during his campaign for re-election by allowing a delay of gas payments.

However, recently there have been signs of a fissure between Turkey and Russia. On Aug. 17, a Turkish-owned cargo ship in the Black Sea near Turkey’s coast was raided by the Russian navy.

The Turkish government said afterward that it had warned Russia to avoid similar events, which escalate tensions in the Black Sea.

There’s definitely some sort of reconfiguration of the Turkey and Russia relationship

Erdoğan also recently reiterated Turkey’s long-standing position that the Crimean Peninsula, annexed by Russia in 2014, is part of Ukraine. Although Turkey has long held this view, Ünlühisarcıklı said the statement would create some anxiety for Russia.

“There’s definitely some sort of reconfiguration of the Turkey and Russia relationship,” he said.

Kerim Has, a Moscow-based political analyst focusing on Russia and Turkey, agreed that getting grain is one likely motivator for Turkey.

He told The Media Line that creating a new agreement is possible but would have to include some concessions from Western powers, in part so that Putin does not look like he is backing down too easily.

He said it is likely that Erdoğan will suggest using Turkey as a transit country for Russian grain to be sold to other countries, and that the West would consider accepting such an option.

“Erdoğan has to find a new formulation for a grain deal,” he said. “If it happens, it will be based on personal relations between Putin and Erdoğan.”

Has said part of the negotiations would probably include Turkey agreeing to make some payment towards what it owes Russia for gas, believed to be more than $20 billion.

He agreed that tensions had increased, but said that Russia would want to avoid a major escalation.

Russia is itself in a difficult situation in Ukraine already

“Russia also doesn’t need any, in my opinion, direct military confrontation with Turkey or a NATO country or NATO in general in the Black Sea. Russia is itself in a difficult situation in Ukraine already,” he said.

He said that Ukraine could send more grain out through Romania, but that would be more costly.

Romanian leaders have previously said they were hoping to double the amount of Ukrainian grain exported through Romania, using road, rail, and river routes, as well as its Black Sea port.

On Aug. 18, Romania and Ukraine signed an agreement to double the amount of Ukrainian grain Romania exports from 2 million to 4 million tons per month. Romania has said it believes it could transport 60% of Ukraine’s grain exports to other countries.