Turkey Takes Tough Approach on Russia, but Striving for Balance

Ankara is heavily dependent on Moscow for energy and tourism, but it has obligations to act in line with its fellow NATO members who support Ukraine

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has forced Turkey to take a harder line against Moscow after years of warming relations, but Ankara’s economic reality means it will have to strive for balance amid the current crisis.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy praised Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Saturday after the two leaders spoke by phone.

In a tweet, Zelenskyy referred to Erdogan as his friend and thanked him and the rest of Turkey for their support.

Zelenskyy in the tweet also referenced limiting Russia’s access to the Black Sea which the Montreux Convention allows Ankara to do during wartime: “The ban on the passage of Russian warships to the Black Sea and significant military and humanitarian support for Ukraine are important. The people of Ukraine will never forget that!”

The tweet led to confusion about whether Ankara had indeed taken steps to not allow Russian warships passage through the straits connected to the Black Sea.

Such a measure would be a major step against Russia which could put Turkey in Moscow’s crosshairs days after Putin issued a warning that any country that tries to stop Russia and poses a threat to the country would face “consequences they have never seen,” which many have feared means a nuclear attack.

Reports later stated that Turkey had not yet made a decision on blocking Russian warships in the straits.

However, Ankara had already signaled a closer position to Kyiv.

As the invasion escalated, the Turkish foreign ministry said in a statement on Thursday that Russia’s attack was a threat to its region and called it “unjust and unlawful.”

The statement added that Turkey opposes the “changing of borders by use of arms.”

Turkey definitely doesn’t want to see Kyiv flip and fall under Moscow because that would change the power of balance around the sea

Another Western ally that offered tougher sentiments than in the past is Israel, whose foreign minister said the attack violated international order. Israel’s prime minister has refrained from condemning Moscow, however.

While both countries have major interests in balancing their Western allies with their ties to Russia, Turkey has more immediate geopolitical concerns that necessitate a cautious approach to Moscow and dependence on the West.

Ankara is a member of NATO and therefore has obligations to act in line with fellow member states in return for the protection the military alliance provides Turkey, which has several foes in the region.

However, Turkey has a number of reasons beyond NATO to support Ukraine.

Turkey sold drones to Ukraine well before the crisis began; in addition, it is important for Ankara to support the notion of territorial integrity, which Russia has violated in Ukraine with the annexation of Crimea and the current invasion.

In addition, Ankara has faced a decades-long insurgency waged by a Kurdish militia and many in the country fear it could separate from and control part of Turkey’s territory.

Another reason for Turkish support of Ukraine is Ankara’s security in a volatile and geopolitically complex region.

Turkey sits on the Black Sea, as does Ukraine and Russia.

“Russia is asymmetrically larger and historically a nemesis for Turkey,” according to Soner Cagaptay, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute and director of its Turkish Research Program.

“Turkey definitely doesn’t want to see Kyiv flip and fall under Moscow because that would change the power of balance around the sea,” he said.

Ties with Russia benefit Ankara on various fronts, including allowing Turkey to have a presence in Syria in order to go after the Kurdish militia YPG.

Despite Erdogan’s criticism of NATO for failing to take concrete action, the Turkish government has been fence-sitting when it comes to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine

However, Syria also presents a weakness for Ankara in its relationship with Moscow, which is allied with Turkey’s foe, Syrian President Bashir Assad.

Dozens of Turkish soldiers have been killed by Russian-backed regime forces and the persistent possibility that Assad will try to regain control of the northern region of Idlib and, therefore, push masses of civilians into Turkey puts Erdogan in an especially vulnerable position.

Moscow also provides trade and tourism dollars which offer crucial benefits for Turkey’s struggling economy and Erdogan’s slipping popularity.

“Despite Erdogan’s criticism of NATO for failing to take concrete action, the Turkish government has been fence-sitting when it comes to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine,” said Aykan Erdemir, a former Turkish lawmaker from the main opposition party, the Republican People’s Party (CHP).

Erdemir, who is now the senior director of the Turkey program for The Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, said that the fact Erdogan is heading into a possibly very tough presidential and national election next year makes it even more necessary for him to avoid confrontation with Russia.

“The Turkish president cannot afford to become a target of Putin’s retaliation in the energy, tourism and agricultural sectors,” he said.