Turkish Opposition Plays Up Nationalist Sentiment Ahead of 2nd Round

First round of elections showed a shift further to the nationalist right

Turkish opposition leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu told supporters on Wednesday that the influx of refugees threatens their survival as he rallies support ahead of a second-round presidential election on May 28.

We will not abandon our homeland to those incapable of protecting our honor, who stand by as this disorderly tide of people floods into our nation daily

“We will not abandon our homeland to those incapable of protecting our honor, who stand by as this disorderly tide of people floods into our nation daily,” Kılıçdaroğlu stated in a video posted on Twitter.

He insinuated that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is under the influence of Russia, a country with which he has significantly strengthened ties in recent years and upon which Turkey heavily relies for its energy needs.

In the first round of the presidential election on Sunday, Erdoğan secured a substantial lead with approximately 49.5% of the votes, compared to Kılıçdaroğlu’s 44.9%, to the opposition’s surprise.

A candidate must receive 50% plus one vote to become the president of Turkey.

Contrary to expectations, most polls suggested a tighter race, with some even showing Kılıçdaroğlu in the lead. However, analysts cautioned that polling has a mixed record in Turkey, leading some to speculate about the existence of “shy conservatives” who were reluctant to express their support for Erdoğan.

Kılıçdaroğlu is part of the Alevi minority that practices a more liberal version of Islam than Sunnis, who are the majority in Turkey.

Soner Çağaptay, a senior fellow focusing on Turkey at the Washington Institute, told The Media Line that while Kılıçdaroğlu performed well among urban centrists, he fell short in middle-income provinces and rural areas. There was also a lack of support from the CHP’s coalition partners or parties that pledged to back Kılıçdaroğlu.

Çağaptay noted that the pro-Kurdish HDP’s support was less robust, with some of their supporters seemingly abstaining from voting. He also mentioned that areas that typically would have supported one of the CHP’s alliance partners, the nationalist Good Party (IYI), partly shifted to far-right presidential candidate Sinan Ogan, the only other challenger to Erdoğan, rather than Kılıçdaroğlu.

“For central Turkey, it was the Turkish nationalist voters who abandoned him,” said Çağaptay.

He speculated that some nationalist voters were swayed by Erdoğan’s repeated allegations linking Kılıçdaroğlu to the PKK, a Kurdish militia labeled as a terrorist organization by Turkey and the U.S. This claim might have been reinforced by an attack from ultra-nationalists against a rally held by Kılıçdaroğlu’s ally, Istanbul mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, in a town that has consistently supported Erdoğan in elections.

Çağaptay suggested that the lack of prosecution for the alleged attackers and the absence of full condemnation from the government may have persuaded voters of a possible connection between Kılıçdaroğlu and the PKK.

“That probably deterred some voters,” Çağaptay said. “I actually believe that the attack was a turning point in the campaign.”

Erdoğan has lost many supporters in Turkey’s economic heartland, where his political career started

Ömer Özkizilcik, a foreign policy and security analyst based in Ankara, opined that Erdoğan would not make any strategic changes, choosing instead to continue with his existing policies and rhetoric.

He argued that most voters who supported far-right candidate Sinan Ogan would likely support Erdoğan, as they are located in the Turkish president’s strongholds.

“However, Erdoğan has already begun to caution his supporters against complacency. Absent a game-changing event, Erdoğan is likely to win by a landslide,” Özkizilcik wrote in a message to The Media Line.

Özkizilcik noted that Erdoğan had underperformed in Istanbul and among Kurdish voters, suffering losses in the southeast, where the minority group is most dominant.

“Erdoğan has lost many supporters in Turkey’s economic heartland, where his political career started,” Özkizilcik stated.

The most significant political setback for the Turkish president was the 2019 Istanbul mayoral election. The CHP seized control after Erdoğan’s party and its predecessor had held power for more than two decades.

Erdoğan campaigned vigorously for his party’s candidate, his former prime minister. However, after the CHP won the initial election, the electoral board nullified the results and ordered a rerun, which was again won by the opposition party.

This loss was largely attributed to the country’s faltering economy, which was also predicted to contribute to Erdoğan’s expected underperformance.