Turkish Opposition’s Nationalist Turn Will Fail, Analysts Say
Opposition leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu has increased nationalist and anti-refugee rhetoric for second round of Turkey’s presidential election
Turkish opposition leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu’s nationalist turn will fail to help him win the second round of the presidential election on Sunday, analysts told The Media Line.
Kılıçdaroğlu, who heads the main opposition party the secularist Republican People’s Party, received 44.8% of the vote compared to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s 49.5% in the first round of voting two weeks ago.
It was a disappointing result for Kılıçdaroğlu, who led a coalition of six parties, after several polls suggested that he was ahead or at a near tie with Erdoğan.
Nationalist voters came out in force to give Erdoğan’s coalition a majority in parliament and give ultranationalist candidate Sinan Oğan 5%.
Kılıçdaroğlu has responded by ramping up rhetoric against refugees and migrants, as well as appealing to Oğan and another ultranationalist opposition politician, Ümit Özdağ, who leads his own party focused on anti-refugee policies.
Özdağ sided with Kılıçdaroğlu this week, while Erdoğan got the support of Oğan, whose success was seen as a protest vote.
It’s really questionable to what extent Kılıçdaroğlu could convince the nationalists
Salim Çevik, an expert on Turkey and human rights at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, told The Media Line that he did not believe either side would gain much with the new endorsements, but since Özdağ has his own party and a more loyal voter base, his support is more valuable.
“He might bring slightly more votes than Oğan,” Çevik said.
Çevik said that going for nationalist votes risks alienating Kurdish voters, a crucial voting block, and having a sudden change in direction will be met with skepticism.
“It’s really questionable to what extent Kılıçdaroğlu could convince the nationalists,” Çevik said.
At the center of Kılıçdaroğlu’s more nationalist turn has been a renewed promise to send refugees and migrants back.
While it has been a policy that Kılıçdaroğlu has suggested for years, Çevik said his comments on the subject have strengthened in tone.
“It was never at the top of his agenda and it was never with such harsh statements.”
Analysts have said that refugees have become easy scapegoats during financial turmoil in the country, with inflation officially reported at nearly 44% in April, although independent economists believe the real number is much higher.
Çevik said that politicians know that promising to send refugees back is unrealistic as Syrian President Bashir al-Assad has said he does not want them to return.
“They just give the public what it wants,” he said.
“It’s realistic only by creating a huge human tragedy.”
Kılıçdaroğlu has shifted right as Erdoğan has accused him of being supported by the militia Kurdistan Workers’ Party, categorized as an organization by Ankara and Washington, which has launched a decadeslong insurgency in Turkey.
I doubt the strategy will deliver a win
Kristian Brakel, head of the Turkey office for Heinrich Böll Foundation, told The Media Line that he believed Kilicdragolu’s nationalist turn would not work and said the election showed that people largely stick to their own political camps.
“I doubt the strategy will deliver a win,” he said.
He added that Kılıçdaroğlu’s claim that there are 10 million refugees is “ridiculous” and that he must be including migrants who live in the country legally, along with all refugees.
Brakel agreed that neither Erdoğan nor Kılıçdaroğlu would be successful in returning refugees back to their countries voluntarily or getting an agreement with Assad to accept their return.
Assad has said one of his conditions would be for the Turkish military to leave Syria but that could unleash another refugee crisis on the Turkish border as millions living in opposition-held areas may rush to leave a possible attack by Syrian forces who would likely try to overtake the area.
However, while Erdoğan has spoken about returning Syrians for years and has recently had officials meet with the Syrian government over the matter, he has taken a softer tone than Kılıçdaroğlu.
Brakel stated that some of Erdoğan’s supporters will believe that Syrians deserve protection.
“There are people among his voters, especially from more religious communities, who feel that there is this bond at least with Syrians, because the majority of them are Sunnis, and they should be allowed to stay,” Brakel said.
