UN Confrontation Avoided, but Israeli-Palestinian Conflict Headed for Further Escalation
Israel told the US that in the coming months it will not regularize any new settlements, aside from the nine West Bank outposts already approved, the Prime Minister's Office said Monday
A resolution condemning Israel for West Bank settlement expansion that was supposed to be discussed Monday at the United Nations Security Council was deferred. Instead, a presidential statement was unanimously adopted by the council’s 15 members. Such a statement is not legally binding and serves as a summary of the body’s standpoint on the matter.
The statement said the Israeli government’s plan to legalize several West Bank outposts would “impede peace” and that “continuing Israeli settlement activities are dangerously imperiling the viability of the two-state solution,” according to reports on Monday afternoon.
The original resolution, brought forward by the Palestinians, called on Israel to completely halt construction in West Bank settlements and for the “immediate reversal” of the attempts to legalize outposts in the territories. The resolution was introduced by the United Arab Emirates (UAE), which currently holds a seat on the council.
The postponing or discarding of the resolution likely was reached with intervention by the United States, which called the move “unhelpful.”
Nobody expected to have a decisive Palestinian victory in the UN
Israel’s new government, the most right-wing ever, has vowed to increase the Israeli presence in the West Bank.
Israel captured the West Bank during the 1967 Arab-Israeli War. While the international community sees Israel’s presence in the West Bank as illegal, Israel has settled the area with over half a million Jewish residents. Palestinians see the land as an integral part of their future state. Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas already has turned to the International Court of Justice (ICJ) in order to ask for its opinion on the legality of Israel’s actions in the West Bank.
The resolution was another part of the Palestinian attempt to corner Israel in the international arena. For now, it appears to be another failed attempt.
“Nobody expected to have a decisive Palestinian victory in the UN,” said Nihad Abu Ghosh, a Palestinian political analyst. “It was a part of political orientation to internationalize the conflict.”
In response to a recent escalation in violence in which several Israelis were killed by Palestinian attackers, the government announced the construction of 10,000 new homes in existing West Bank settlements and the retroactive legalization of nine illegal outposts in the area. The announcement drew international condemnation, including from the US.
“We are deeply troubled by Israel’s announcement,” said US State Department spokesperson Ned Price. “We strongly oppose these unilateral measures, which exacerbate tensions, harm trust between the parties, and undermine the prospects for a negotiated two-state solution. During his recent trip to Israel, Secretary (Antony) Blinken was clear that all parties should refrain from actions that heighten tensions and take us further away from peace. Israel’s decision on settlements and outposts runs directly contrary to those objectives.”
The Palestinian initiative at the UN was to be their response to the Israeli move.
While the current tensions surrounding the UN resolution may have been temporarily avoided, it appears Netanyahu may be on a collision course with the US.
In December 2016, when Netanyahu repeatedly disappointed the administration of President Barack Obama, the latter did not veto, and instead abstained on, a UN resolution that deemed all Israeli settlement activity illegal, which allowed it to pass easily.
“Obama was trying to teach Netanyahu a lesson,” according to Dr. Colonel (Res.) Moshe Elad, a lecturer at the Western Galilee College and former senior military officer who served in the West Bank. “We might be seeing the same in this case.”
The US administration is treading carefully when it comes to Netanyahu’s new government. In the midst of a heated debate on sweeping judicial reforms, the US has warned Israel that a wide consensus needs to be reached on such changes.
“There is undoubtedly linkage the Americans create between the willingness of the US to save Israel from itself and how they see the Israeli government as a whole, especially regarding the judicial reforms,” said Eran Ezion, former deputy head of Israel’s National Security Council.
“Netanyahu has promised the US that Israel will remain a democracy, but he has not taken any real actions showing that,” Elad added. “Israel is in a serious predicament when it comes to relations with the US.”
Internal events in Israel are indeed directly linked to how it behaves in the international arena.
Currently on trial on corruption charges, Netanyahu needs his coalition partners close in order to promote the judicial reforms, but also because without them he would not have been able to form a government. His opponents, some of them from the right wing, refuse to sit with a leader on trial. His senior partners from the ultra-nationalist camp have vowed to strengthen Israel’s hold on the West Bank.
“Expansion of settlements is the core of the program of the right-wing forces in the Israeli government,” said Abu Ghosh. “Netanyahu can seek to pacify and reassure the outside parties, but he is indebted to his partners who represent the … right. He may show some temporary retreat from settlement projects, but he will definitely not back down from his settlement program.”
The US has helped push back on various Palestinian attempts to take legal action against Israel, but Netanyahu’s credit may be starting to dwindle.
“The US is warning Israel, hinting they could backtrack on the warning if Israel refrains from certain actions,” said Elad.
In the current political climate in Israel, it is difficult to see how the government agreed to a reported request by the US to freeze settlement construction in return for the scrapping of the resolution.
“The protest from the right wing will be so great,” said Elad. “Israeli governments that were less right-wing were reluctant to freeze construction, so it will do so now? I doubt it.”
A statement from the Prime Minister’s Office Monday said, “Israel has told the US that in the coming months, it will not regularize any new settlements, aside from the nine already approved. Israel did not commit to stop demolitions of illegal buildings in Area C territories.”
Area C territories make up the majority of the West Bank with a substantial Palestinian population and are under full Israeli administrative and security control.
Netanyahu has promised the US that Israel will remain a democracy, but he has not taken any real actions showing that. Israel is in a serious predicament when it comes to relations with the US.
The statement from Netanyahu’s office did not refer to events at the UN and also was evasive about settlement construction in existing settlements. The Israeli premier’s political partners have yet to react.
“The Palestinians are not happy with such a deal,” said Abu Ghosh. “They made more than 14 demands from US Secretary of State Blinken … who just listened and now the deal was made to stop the Palestinian international campaign for just promises.”
US President Joe Biden finds himself in a bind, trying to balance his opposition to Netanyahu, internal political considerations, and other international policy matters. Each force is pulling Biden in a different direction. The US could not veto a resolution that it does not really oppose, and it frequently has said that it opposes the Israeli settlement enterprise.
Two months after Netanyahu and his partners entered office, tensions between Israelis and Palestinians are at an all-time high. Violence between the sides continues and the death toll on both sides is rising.
The outlook is grim, observers say.
“The probability for combustion is increasing,” said Ezion. “The possibility of a political settlement has been buried.”
This is true both on the Palestinian side and the Israeli side.
“The declared program of the Israeli government is an escalatory program, and its practices on the ground are pushing matters toward confrontation,” said Abu Ghosh.
“The direction is volatility, not stability,” Ezion added.
