US, Iran on Cusp of New Nuclear Deal: Reports

The US denies that an agreement with Iran is imminent, but Israeli sources insist that the countries will soon reach a nuclear deal

Israeli security sources say that indirect negotiations are underway between the US and Iran to revive the 2015 nuclear deal. Officials from the two countries have been speaking through Omani representatives in hopes of creating an unwritten understanding between the two countries that would serve to de-escalate tension.

The agreement, which sources say is imminent, will involve a freeze on the Iranian nuclear program and the release of Americans held in Iranian prisons in exchange for the release of seized Iranian funds and the reduction of sanctions on Iran.

US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant discussed the situation at a meeting in Brussels last week.

Under the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) nuclear deal, Iran agreed to limit its uranium stockpile and to enrich uranium only to 3.67%, the purity needed to run nuclear power plants. In return, Iran received relief from sanctions imposed by the US, the EU, and the UN Security Council. Since the US unilaterally withdrew from the deal in 2018, Iran has said that it is enriching uranium up to 60% purity. Iran’s uranium stockpile has also grown tenfold since the fall of the nuclear deal. Since coming to power, President Joe Biden has sought to reach another deal with Iran but has not yet succeeded.

Our stance is clear: No agreement with Iran will oblige Israel. Israel will continue to do everything to defend itself.

Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu has repeatedly said that Israel will continue to take action against the “threat of a nuclear Iran” regardless of any agreement between Iran and the US. “Our stance is clear: No agreement with Iran will oblige Israel. Israel will continue to do everything to defend itself,” Netanyahu said last week in the Knesset.

Speaking to his Cabinet on Sunday, Netanyahu said that a new agreement between the US and Iran would not prevent the Islamic Republic from obtaining a nuclear weapon.

“We oppose agreements, first of all to the original agreement called the JCPOA, which will just pave Iran’s way to the bomb and will pad it with hundreds of millions of dollars,” Netanyahu told the Cabinet. He also expressed Israel’s opposition to a more limited agreement between the US and Iran.

Speaking to The Media Line, Alex Grinberg, a former Israeli military intelligence officer and an Iran expert at the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security, attributed opposition to the agreement mostly to “Israeli fear that the agreement will be at the expense of Israel’s security.”

He said that as part of the talks, Iran is demanding that the US prevent any Israeli military operations against Iranian military installations.

He noted that the agreement would focus only on Iran’s nuclear program and not on other Iranian military activity.

“For example, the development of long-range ballistic missiles and Iran’s support for groups and militias in Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, and Gaza will not be addressed,” Grinberg said.

The New York Times reported that under the agreement, Iran would in fact commit to end sales of ballistic missiles to Russia, put a stop to its proxies’ attacks on US contractors in Syria and Iraq, and release Americans held in prison

Soli Shahvar, professor of Iranian studies at the University of Haifa, told The Media Line that the issue of Iran is one where the diverging interests of Israel and the US become clear.

“They have different interests and different ways of looking at the Iran nuclear program,” Shahvar said. “The US is thousands of miles away from Iranian missiles. Israel is within the [range] of Iranian missiles.”

Since the Iranian Revolution in 1979, Iran has consistently threatened to destroy Israel, Shahvar said.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken acknowledged on Friday that indirect talks were taking place via Oman, but denied that an agreement is imminent.

“With regard to Iran, some of the reports that we’ve seen about an agreement on nuclear matters or, for that matter, on detainees, are simply not accurate and not true,” he said.

On Monday, Nasser Kanaani , a spokesperson for the Iranian Foreign Ministry, also acknowledged indirect negotiations on the issues of the nuclear program, sanctions, and detainees.

“We welcome the efforts of Omani officials, and we exchanged messages with the other party through this mediator” regarding lifting US sanctions, Kanaani said.

He noted that the talks “were not secret” and were part of an ongoing diplomatic process.

Despite Washington’s denial, Israeli officials insist that an agreement between Iran and the US is on the horizon.

Grinberg criticized the Israeli response to the talks. Still waiting for a White House invitation six months after entering office, Netanyahu is not operating from a position of strength. His choice to focus on public debate with the US is “not helpful,” Grinberg said.

Israel “cannot persuade or impose on America something in which it has no interest,” he added.

Grinberg said that Israel might have more influence over the Iran agreement if Netanyahu had chosen a less combative tack. Netanyahu has put the focus “on arguing with Biden and speaking negatively about any agreement, and therefore it is logical that the Americans have come to the conviction that it is not necessary to consult Israel, because Netanyahu is going to reject any deal,” he said.

He said that Netanyahu ought to have focused on the American commitment to Israeli security and held conversations “privately, not on television.”

Shahvar said that the US and Israel will continue to cooperate despite the tension, given that doing so is “in their best interests.”

Netanyahu has threatened military action against Iran, saying that any agreement between the US and Iran does not apply to Israel.

You don’t expect Israel to go blindly after what the US decides to do. The US decided its best interest [was] to come to terms with Iran. Israel must worry about its interests, too.

An Israeli attack on Iran would jeopardize Israel’s close ties with the US. “You don’t expect Israel to go blindly after what the US decides to do,” Shahvar said. “The US decided its best interest [was] to come to terms with Iran. Israel must worry about its interests, too.”

The talks between the US and Iran come as the Islamic Republic is renewing ties with long-time regional foe Saudi Arabia. Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud visited Iran on Saturday as part of the rapprochement.

At a press conference, Prince Faisal stressed “the importance of cooperation among all regional countries to ensure that it is free of weapons of mass destruction.”