US-Iran Tensions Flare Up in Syria, but No Major Increase Expected in US Military Activity
Many of the US’s military resources are invested in the Russo-Ukrainian War, making further military escalation in Syria unlikely
A high-up Iranian official said on Saturday that Iran will respond to any attack on its bases in Syria. This comment comes after an Iranian drone attack on an American installation in Western Syria on Thursday that was followed by an American airstrike on Iran-backed bases in Syria. Despite this escalation and pressure being put on the US government, experts believe that the US does not intend to change its Middle East policy.
Keyvan Khosravi, spokesperson for Iran’s top security body, was quoted on Iranian state media as saying, “Any pretext to attack bases created at the request of the Syrian government to deal with terrorism and Islamic State elements in this country will be met with an immediate counter-response.”
Likewise, President Joe Biden told the press that the US will defend its troops and citizens abroad even if it requires the use of force. “Make no mistake: the United States does not … seek conflict with Iran, but be prepared for us to act forcefully to protect our people,” he told reporters on Friday.
Thursday’s Iranian drone attack on the US base in Western Syria left one American contractor dead and wounded five US service members and another contractor. The American counterstrike on pro-Iranian installations in the East of Syria killed three Syrian troops, 11 Syrian fighters in pro-government militias, and five non-Syrian fighters who were aligned with the government, according to the UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.
Nadeem Ahmed Moonakal, a research scholar at the Rasanah International Institute for Iranian Studies in Saudi Arabia told The Media Line that the speed with which the escalation took place suggests a general instability regarding the situation.
The Biden Administration is under severe pressure from both the domestic and international fronts, Moonakal said. Both Republicans in the US and European allies abroad are calling on Washington to take stronger action against Iran and its proxies in the region.
He noted, though, that an escalation with Iran now could pose a serious threat to the US troops in the region. “The Iran-US relationship is mired in deep mistrust and skepticism amid increasing tensions between both countries in recent months,” he said, “and the US would not want any escalation in the current context as it could pose a severe risk to the American troops and assets in the region.”
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Moonakal said that the escalation is not likely to change the US’s approach to Middle East policy. Other factors such as the Russo-Ukrainian War are more significant in dictating the direction of US foreign policy, he explained.
“The Biden Administration’s immediate concerns likely would be to safeguard the American military troops in the region rather than assert any kind of dominance in the region,” Moonakal said.
Dr. Mohammad Salami, an associate research fellow at the International Institute for Global Strategic Analysis, said that this is not the first time that Iran has been attacked in Syria, noting that alleged Israeli airstrikes had targeted Iranian troops and Iranian-backed militias in Syria.
According to Salami, Iran is aware that its military presence in Syria is unpopular in the international community, and it has therefore tried to moderate its military offensives there.
“Tehran knows very well that its position in Syria has a lot of opposition from the international community, especially Israel and the Arabs of the region, who consider Iran’s presence against its interests, so it tries to manage tensions,” he said.
Salami added that Iran is not in a position for further escalation, as they are currently isolated and facing domestic turmoil as well as lack of international support.
A major exception to Iran’s exclusion from the international community comes from Russia, Iran’s strategic ally. But despite Russia’s interests in Syria, it is unlikely that they will directly intervene in the conflict between the US and Iran, Moonakal said. He noted that Russia is already facing military and economic difficulties resulting from the war in Ukraine, which make getting involved in the conflict in Syria less attractive.
Iran and Saudi Arabia recently agreed to reestablish ties, but Salami said that intervention from Saudi Arabia is also unlikely. If the conflict does continue to escalate and Riyadh is forced to take a side, it would probably support Washington before Tehran, Salami said.
“Riyadh will never sacrifice its main ally, Washington, for a half-hearted and ambiguous relationship with Tehran,” he said. “Saudi Arabia knows that despite some disputes with the US, neither China nor Russia can replace Washington in the Middle East, so Riyadh will condemn Tehran if the attacks escalate.”
Salami also said that Saudi Arabia is unhappy with Iran’s military presence in Syria and might take the opportunity to intensify international pressure on Iran to reduce its presence in Syria.
Moonakal, too, said that Saudi Arabia’s interest in reducing regional tensions makes it less likely that they will intervene in the conflict. He noted that Saudi Arabian Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud recently said that the kingdom’s primary focus is to align its foreign policy with its domestic interests, for which stability across the region is crucial.
“Riyadh will likely monitor the developments closely and gauge its own interests vis-à-vis Syria,” Moonakal said, “especially as both Saudi Arabia and Syria have agreed to reopen the embassies and are in talks to restore ties.”
For Syria itself, any escalation in proxy attacks between the US and Iran on Syrian soil “would hinder the prospects for recovery and bringing stability to the country,” Moonakal said.
