US Officials in Riyadh To Discuss Iranian Threat With Gulf Leaders

The US-Gulf Cooperation Council security meeting also allows the US to show that it is still committed to its allies in the region

A US-Gulf Cooperation Council security meeting is taking place in Riyadh this week, and the common threats that the countries face are the main topics slated for discussion. Specifically, they will address the threats that Iran poses for the US, the Gulf and the Middle East as a whole. Experts say that this timely meeting is an opportunity for the United States to show that it is still committed to its allies in the region, since many believe that the Biden administration has significantly decreased its involvement in the Middle East.

Officials from the Pentagon, State Department and the National Security Council are part of the American delegation, which is led by the US Special Envoy for Iran, Robert Malley. US Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for the Middle East Dana Stroul, who traveled to Riyadh with the delegation, said on Monday in a statement that “Iranian aggression is a serious concern” for the US, and pointed to its cooperation with Russia and the Houthi insurgents in Yemen as examples of this.

“Increased Iranian and Russian military cooperation … has serious implications for security in the Middle East,” Stroul said. “We have seen no change in Iranian willingness or activities to transfer weapons to the Houthis,” she also said, blaming the Iranian-backed group for not showing good faith in extending the six-month truce in the civil war that ended in October in Yemen.

The timing of the US-GCC talks is important from a number of perspectives, according to Magdalena Karolak, an associate professor of Humanities and Social Sciences at Zayed University in the UAE.

The first has to do with the question of the revival of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the official name for the nuclear agreement first signed in 2015 between Iran and the world powers, she told The Media Line. Some GCC countries consider Iran a long-term rival; because of this the JCPOA “has been perceived as a threat to the security of the region allowing Iran to make a commitment that it would not abide by and instead take advantage of the situation to continue its nuclear program.”

It would not be plausible for the Biden administration to prioritize negotiations with Iran or the revival of its participation in JCPOA from the point of view of the upcoming electoral campaign and the US’s own security priorities at the moment

The internal unrest in Iran also is a factor to consider, Karolak explains, since it places the Islamic Republic in an even more unpopular position in the international arena. “The fact that Iran has dealt harshly with its own citizens through incarcerations and executions of protesters put it in the spotlight and created strong waves of condemnation in Western public opinion,” she noted.

That is why this is a favorable time to look for ways to counter Iran through other means besides a nuclear deal, that the GCC countries and the US will agree upon, she says.

The interventions of Iran and Russia in Syria are another factor to consider, especially in light of the Russo-Ukrainian war, she continues. “Now that Russia is indirectly an active enemy of the Western world, seeking a way to weaken its partner in the region – that is Iran – is another logical action to take,” she said.

For the Biden administration, exploring new ways to counter Iran rather than engaging in another round of nuclear negotiations makes more sense ahead of the US presidential campaign, Karolak adds. “It would not be plausible for the Biden administration to prioritize negotiations with Iran or the revival of its participation in JCPOA from the point of view of the upcoming electoral campaign and the US’s own security priorities at the moment,” she said.

Dr. Ali Bakir, Gulf security expert and a nonresident senior fellow with the Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative at the Atlantic Council’s Middle East programs, asserts that, for the US, a primary goal of the meeting is to show its commitment to its allies in the region.

The US intends to “send a message to all concerned parties that it is committed to the security and stability of the region against all kinds of threats, including those stemming from Iran’s regional policies and the increasing influence and involvement of some foreign powers such China,” he told The Media Line.

“This message is quite crucial amid the regional countries’ perception that the US is decreasing its presence in the region following its pivot to Asia, which is affecting its security commitments as well as its credibility as a security guarantor,” Bakir said.

Dr. Omar Al-Ubaydli, director of research at Derasat, a Bahraini think tank for strategic, international and energy studies, told The Media Line that: “Having influence in the region that supplies the most energy to the world, including China, is highly advantageous.”

The withdrawal of the US from Afghanistan, which was one of the Biden administration’s most drastic changes in its foreign policy, says Karolak, “was a good example that where there is a vacuum, there is a high chance of a return of regimes, armed groups and individuals who seek to destabilize the region.” This, she adds, has a ripple effect on US security.

Therefore, she argues, it would be unwise for the US to abandon the region at this moment. “The development of nuclear capacity by Iran would change the security balance in the region forever,” she said, adding that there are also concerns about Iran spreading this technology to other regimes or groups in the region.

Bakir adds that the US, and its allies in the region “are also concerned about Iran’s drone proliferation and its malicious policies in several regional countries such as Yemen, Iraq, Lebanon and Syria, as well as maritime security and hybrid threats stemming from Tehran.”

When it comes to GCC countries’ policies toward Iran, they may have some differences in their approaches, according to Bakir. However, he believes that the US is aiming to push them to agree on a minimum unified vision of how to counter rising threats that might affect all of them.

Such a vision would benefit all the parties in the GCC countries as well as the US, which, he said, “is trying to maximize the gains coming from such a perspective while minimizing the political, financial and security investments needed to keep its robust presence in the Gulf and restore the credibility of its security commitments.”

Al-Ubaydli adds that, despite the differences among the GCC countries’ policies, the one thing that all GCC countries agree on, is “the need to limit nuclear proliferation in the region, and the need to improve security.”

“The US is a logical partner for all of the six countries in this regard,” he said.