What the Middle East Will Look Like in 2024: The Media Line Tells You
The Israel-Hamas war, reconciliation between Iran and Saudi Arabia, China’s and the United States’ roles in the region, and the natural disasters that occurred take center-stage as the main developments in the Middle East in 2023
The Middle East experienced a year of intense activity. With 2023 drawing to a close, experts reviewing the region’s changes agree that the Israel-Gaza war, sparked by Hamas’ terrorist incursion on October 7, was the year’s most significant event. However, this was not the only significant development.
The region underwent significant changes in various fields last year. The Media Line explored the key geopolitical, economic, and environmental changes in the region in 2023.
Geopolitical and Economic Developments
“I would be hard-pressed to find anything more impactful than Hamas’ attack on Israel and the subsequent conflict,” said Hugo Corden-Lloyd, a UK-based intelligence expert who specializes in Iran. He also noted to The Media Line that the full impact of this event on the region remains to be seen, but it seems to set the stage for various states to either capitalize on or exacerbate the instability.
He emphasized Iran’s significant role in this context. “I believe it has watched the West’s response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and used it as a benchmark to measure the West’s strategic and military red lines, its willingness to become directly involved in a ‘hot’ war, and the limits of its effectiveness,” he said, adding that this would dictate the extent to which Iran was willing to support a regional conflict, including the conflict’s expansion to Lebanon.
Nadeem Ahmed Moonakal, a research scholar at Rasanah: International Institute for Iranian Studies in Riyadh, noted the Gaza conflict’s impact on the global economy. He highlighted the risks at critical maritime chokepoints such as the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, vulnerable to Houthi attacks, as evidenced in 2023.
Moonakal also referenced a major geopolitical event of the past year: the unexpected Saudi-Iran rapprochement deal. This agreement marked a critical point of political reconciliation after years of tension.
He told The Media Line, “China’s role as a mediator in this agreement represented a departure from the traditional dominance of US influence in the region.” He noted an observed trend of increased assertiveness among regional powers, reflecting a broader shift in both regional and global geopolitics.
Moonakal explained that regional powers are aiming to boost their strategic autonomy and adapt to changing geopolitical dynamics. He highlighted the expansion of the intergovernmental organization BRICS as a significant development. “Welcoming new members such as Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. BRICS is now perceived as a crucial alternative to Western hegemony,” he continued.
However, Moran Zaga, a Gulf States researcher at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem and the Mitvim Institute, observed that one of the region’s major shifts is the increasing American involvement.
“As Middle Eastern countries are starting to practice regional solutions, the Biden Administration in 2023 has taken a step forward in its Middle East policy and influence,” Zaga told The Media Line. She attributed this primarily to the increasing likelihood of a US-Israel-Saudi deal and the significant risks posed by the Israel-Hamas war.
Zaga maintained that despite the Israel-Hamas war, the overall regional reconciliation observed throughout the year remains intact. She pointed to the flourishing relationship between Iran and Saudi Arabia and Syria’s reentry into the Arab League.
Nir Levitan, a research fellow at the Europa Institute at Bar-Ilan University, added ongoing negotiations for expanding normalization pacts between Israel and Saudi Arabia, as well as continued security coordination between Israel and moderate Arab states, to the list of key 2023 geopolitical and economic developments.
“This continuity facilitated the United States’ efforts to expand its network of allies, incorporating a strategic axis connecting India, Gulf states, Israel, and Europe,” he told The Media Line.
Levitan believes that this situation is expected to continue even after the multifront conflict between Iran-affiliated groups and Israel.
He observed that the apparent commercial shift is set to broaden the scope of major Eastern markets, establishing stronger connections with Europe through the Gulf nations and Israel’s neighboring countries. “This shift will facilitate the extension of Israel’s engagements with North African nations and the expansion of the Abraham Accords,” Levitan stressed.
Zaga says that another factor shaping regional dynamics is the increasing global dependence on Qatar’s LNG, driven by the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war and the quest for economic alternatives, along with current fluctuations in gas prices.
Environmental Developments
Moonakal recalled the earthquakes in Morocco and Turkey, highlighting the challenges in effectively addressing natural disasters and shedding light on the vulnerabilities that can precipitate humanitarian crises in the region.
“These events underscore the limitations in preparedness and response mechanisms, particularly in regions prone to seismic activities,” he said.
He also mentioned that environmental issues are compounding the existing challenges in war-torn nations like Syria and Libya. The earthquakes in Syria and the floods in Libya, he added, “further emphasize the difficulties faced by these war-torn countries in managing and recovering from such crises.”
According to Moonakal, Iran’s drought crisis, which has lasted for four consecutive years and includes a decline in autumn precipitation, is another significant environmental issue. He stated that these prolonged dry periods pose substantial risks and challenges for the country. “The situation has prompted criticism of the Iranian government’s environmental management, particularly in the aftermath of protests related to the disappearance of Lake Urmia in Tabriz,” he added.
The dispute between Iran and Afghanistan over the Helmand River is also related to this issue. This, he continued, “underscores the potential for environmental issues to exacerbate border tensions, especially amid disagreements and divergences with the Taliban.”
Outlook for 2024
Zaga said that as the Israel-Hamas conflict has not yet ended, it is likely to further alter regional dynamics, but it is too early to predict the exact impact.
Corden-Lloyd added that the region is likely to experience increased insecurity as the conflict spreads across the Middle East. “We are seeing willingness on behalf of the Houthis and Hizbullah to engage in this, and how a relatively small action like the engagement with shipping vessels, can have a big impact in line with Iran’s strategic goals,” he said, adding that Iran will probably continue to use its proxies to undermine regional security.
Moonakal, among other predictions for the upcoming year, noted that a significant shift toward increased cooperation between Gulf states and Asian powers is expected. He believes this will shape and enhance regional alliances and partnerships.
He also mentioned the upcoming 2024 presidential elections in Tunisia, which are expected to be heavily influenced by discussions on migration and the economic crisis. Tunisian President Kais Saied, he said, “has faced criticism for authoritarian actions, is seeking re-election and the results would invariably shape the nature of democracy in the country.”
Moonakal continued, noting that the recent expansion of BRICS offers Middle Eastern countries an opportunity to leverage their position within the group to influence global energy trade favorably.
He added that in 2024, the region is also anticipated to see advancements in the technological sector, citing increased cooperation between Gulf countries and China, particularly in technology and artificial intelligence.
“The tech war between the United States and China is bound to affect the Middle East in the context of significant shifts in the regional technological landscape, particularly concerning semiconductors,” Moonakal added.
