‘Writing Was on the Wall’: Golan Heights Attack Raises Specter of Wider War

Twelve youths died in Majdal Shams after a Hezbollah rocket struck a soccer game. Despite denials from Hezbollah, Israel threatens harsh retaliation, raising fears of a broader conflict

Twelve youngsters were laid to rest in the Israeli Druze village of Majdal Shams on Sunday, hours after a rocket fired by the Hezbollah terrorist organization hit a soccer field they were playing at. The attack from Lebanon wounded scores of other youngsters who were participating in a soccer tournament. 

The tragic incident was yet another development in ten months of violent exchanges between the sides, but its severity threatened to engulf the region in a broader regional war. Tensions have been simmering on the Israeli-Lebanese border since the war between Hamas in Gaza and Israel began in October 2023.

“The writing was on the wall,” Danny Citrinowicz, a research fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies’ Iran Program, told The Media Line. “When the sides played with fire, it was bound to happen.”

When the war started, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah vowed to assist Hamas in its war against Israel and immediately began firing rockets and using explosive drones aimed at northern Israel. He has repeatedly said his organization will not hold its fire until the war in Gaza is over. The conflict has been characterized by unspoken rules of engagement in which both Hezbollah and Israel have been carefully managing the flames, attacking military targets at a limited range. The rivals carefully monitor the border, Hezbollah well aware of which areas Israel has evacuated within 5 kilometers from the border and which it has not.

Majdal Shams was not one of the communities evacuated at the beginning of the tensions, which have significantly escalated in recent weeks. 

“Hezbollah has been increasing the amount of fire to areas that are outside of the 5-kilometer range and has intensified its targeting of civilian populated areas,” said Tal Beeri, research director at the Alma Research and Education Center, a think tank focused on security challenges on Israel’s northern border. “Hezbollah explicitly knew that the use of such a rocket would endanger the population there.”

Both Hezbollah and Israel have a vested interest in containing the conflict. As an Iranian proxy, it is widely believed Tehran wants to retain Hezbollah’s abilities for a possible direct conflict with Israel in the future. For Israel, heavily entangled and exhausted from a ten-month war against Hamas in Gaza, another front is less than desirable. Hezbollah is considered a more formidable enemy than Hamas, with a huge arsenal of missiles that can reach all of Israel.

“Both Hezbollah and Israel have a vested interest in containing the conflict. As an Iranian proxy, it is widely believed Tehran wants to retain Hezbollah’s abilities for a possible direct conflict with Israel in the future. For Israel, heavily entangled and exhausted from a ten-month war against Hamas in Gaza, another front is less than desirable. Hezbollah is considered a more formidable enemy than Hamas, with a huge arsenal of missiles that can reach all of Israel.”

“The sides are not interested in a war and the whole idea now is to find a response that takes a toll and satisfies the calls for a reaction that will not deteriorate to an all-out war,” Citrinowicz explained. “It is clear both Israel and Hezbollah have not yet exhausted or demonstrated all of their abilities.”

Israel will now have to choose between reacting within the rules of engagement or escalating and risking an all-out war.

Such a war would likely bring to the surface other Middle Eastern hostilities and is expected to be deadly and costly for both sides.

Hardliners in the Israeli government immediately called for tough action.

“For the death of small children, Nasrallah should pay with his head. All of Lebanon should pay the price,” Ultra-nationalist Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich posted on his X account on Saturday. “It’s time for action!”

Senior Israeli officials have been threatening with an escalation for weeks.

According to the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), 17 Israeli soldiers and 23 civilians have been killed as a result of Hezbollah attacks that began in October. Over 340 unmanned aerial vehicles have been launched at Israel, with over 6,400 projectiles launched at Israel. Many of Israel’s border communities have been evacuated since October. The northern part of the country is largely deserted, with some residents saying they will not return until the Hezbollah threat is completely removed.

“The incident obligates Israel to responses outside of the lines that existed until now,” said Citrinowicz. “If Israel does this, then Hezbollah will be obligated to respond in a way that restores its deterrence.”

The last war Hezbollah and Israel fought was in the summer of 2006 and ended with United Nations (UN) resolution 1701. The resolution brought about a cease-fire, calling for Hezbollah forces to be distanced from the border with Israel. It also demanded the disarmament of all armed groups in Lebanon, other than the Lebanese army, based on previous UN resolutions. However, these have never been implemented.

“The only way that the world can prevent a full-scale war which would be devastating also to Lebanon is by forcing Hezbollah to implement … Resolution 1701. Now is the very last minute to do so diplomatically,” read a statement by Israeli Foreign Ministry Spokesman Oren Marmorstein. 

Shortly after taking responsibility for the attack on Saturday, Hezbollah retracted and denied it was behind the tragedy. This was partly due to its fear of unrest within Lebanon, where there is also a Druze population whose leaders were quick to condemn the attack. But the denial was also a signal of Hezbollah’s fear of an Israeli retribution that would be harsher than any of the attacks carried out until now.

Since October, Israeli airstrikes in Lebanon have killed more than 450 people, most of them believed to be Hezbollah terrorists. 

All options are now on the table. There was always speculation on what would happen if a rocket hit a kindergarten full of children, and the only difference is that it hit a soccer field. We have now reached that point, and in the coming hours and days, we will understand where this is headed.

“All options are now on the table,” Beeri told The Media Line. “There was always speculation on what would happen if a rocket hit a kindergarten full of children, and the only difference is that it hit a soccer field. We have now reached that point, and in the coming hours and days, we will understand where this is headed.”

According to Beeri and the Alma Center, Hezbollah is believed to possess hundreds of thousands of weapons, including rockets, different types of missiles, UAVs, and anti-tank missiles. Their estimate is that in the event of a full-scale war, Hezbollah will fire approximately 3000 different types of weapons in the first ten days of the conflict. 

Should Israel choose to escalate its response, it will likely strike closer to Beirut than it has until now. Hezbollah will then also be forced to respond, a dynamic that has characterized the relations between the adversaries for decades. 

“In such a scenario, Hezbollah will likely target areas near and including Haifa and use stronger and farther-reaching UAVs than it has used, some carrying three times more explosives that have been used until now,” Beeri added. 

Throughout the war, mediation efforts by the US led by special envoy Amos Hochstein have failed to deliver a positive outcome. Hezbollah has refused to stop firing as long as Israel’s Gaza offensive continues. This has led many to believe that a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas would automatically lead to one in the north. 

Israel’s goal is to see the residents return to the area while deterring Hezbollah or reaching a diplomatic arrangement.

“A wide-scale confrontation will lead to the same point in which there will be an agreement with Lebanon, and Hezbollah will not be completely destroyed by Israel,” said Citrinowicz. “This will leave a complex threat that Israel will have to live with. In order to bring residents back to their homes and increase their sense of security is the combination of a substantial agreement that will visibly distance Hezbollah from the border, together with increased and visible Israeli military presence along the border.”

Israelis living alongside the border with Lebanon fear that the scenes witnessed on the border with Gaza, in which Hamas terrorists easily overcame the border and entered Israel to commit a deadly rampage, will repeat themselves in their communities. 

A widely agreed-upon scenario for an all-out war with Hezbollah is that other Iranian proxies will join in and attack Israel, challenging it on multiple fronts. Since the beginning of the current war, Israel has been warding off attacks from the Houthi rebels in Yemen, Iranian-backed Shiite militias in Iraq and Syria, together growing unrest in the Palestinian-controlled territories of the West Bank. 

Once a war breaks out, the intensity of the different fronts will increase significantly. We believe the Syrian front will become a major, additional front, and there will be a push to create a very active and intense fighting zone by Shiite militias in Syria and Hezbollah units also present there.

“Once a war breaks out, the intensity of the different fronts will increase significantly,” said Beeri. “We believe the Syrian front will become a major, additional front, and there will be a push to create a very active and intense fighting zone by Shiite militias in Syria and Hezbollah units also present there.”

Israel’s war cabinet is expected to convene early Sunday evening in Tel Aviv. According to unnamed officials quoted in the media, Israel aims to react forcefully while not escalating into a war. 

“With each side still not having used all of their abilities, we are at a highly sensitive time, the closest ever to a widening of the conflict,” Citrinowicz summarized. “A lot depends on Israel’s response, how it will frame it in order to for Hezbollah to retort in a limited manner.”