‘Spain Is Shooting Itself in the Foot’: Experts Warn of Military, Financial Fallout From Israel Arms Embargo
Madrid’s bid to signal moral leadership on Gaza may come at the expense of its own armed forces, with canceled contracts, looming lawsuits and operational gaps on NATO’s southern flank
Spain’s announcement of a permanent arms embargo on Israel has sparked an unusual wave of anxiety within its own defense establishment. What Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez framed as a necessary act to denounce what he called “genocide in Gaza” could, according to experts, weaken Spain’s deterrent capabilities, trigger multimillion-euro penalties and leave troops deployed abroad struggling to maintain critical equipment.
You cannot maintain deterrence against Morocco while cutting off the very technology that keeps you safe, especially when Rabat is buying the same Israeli systems you are now discarding
“Spain is shooting itself in the foot,” Ángel Mas, president of the Spanish pro-Israel NGO Acción y Comunicación sobre Oriente Medio (ACOM), told The Media Line. “You cannot maintain deterrence against Morocco while cutting off the very technology that keeps you safe, especially when Rabat is buying the same Israeli systems you are now discarding.”
The warning comes after Madrid confirmed the cancellation of contracts worth nearly 1 billion euros for advanced Israeli weaponry. Among them were 168 Spike LR2 antitank missile systems and the SILAM high-mobility rocket launcher, both considered vital for the Spanish army’s modernization.
Another agreement with Rafael Advanced Defense Systems, worth more than € 200 million to supply laser-guidance pods for Eurofighter jets, has also been scrapped. Officially, the decisions are part of Sánchez’s pledge to enshrine in law an embargo that had been applied de facto since October 2023. Unofficially, the cancellations have left generals and procurement officers scrambling for replacements.
Defense analysts say the rupture exposes Spain to problems far beyond the symbolic level. Jesús M. Pérez Triana, a Spanish security and defense analyst specializing in geopolitics and military affairs, speaking with The Media Line, stressed that the most immediate danger is not about downgrading weapons but about the vacuum created when established systems suddenly lose support.
“The armed forces are worried about maintenance and spare parts,” he said. “If the Spike missiles or communications systems lack support, the deployments in places like the Baltics could be compromised.”
Triana pointed out that Spain’s NATO commitments in Latvia and Slovakia rely on equipment integrated with Israeli technology. A sudden cut in supply chains could create vulnerabilities at the worst possible moment, when European security is already strained by Russia’s war in Ukraine and instability in North Africa.
The Ministry of Defense has remained cautious. Apart from a brief remark by the navy chief, who noted that the fleet had no major contracts with Israel, military leaders have avoided public statements. Behind closed doors, however, senior officers complain of being sidelined while the embargo decree is drafted.
“It is the law of silence,” one source confided, describing how procurement directors for the army and air force have been left waiting for details while the Commerce Ministry takes the lead.
This is a government using foreign policy to distract from corruption scandals at home
For Mas, the secrecy reflects political improvisation. He argued that Sánchez announced the embargo without preparing a coordinated legal text, forcing ministries to scramble. “This is a government using foreign policy to distract from corruption scandals at home,” he charged, echoing Israel’s own accusation that Madrid is hiding domestic troubles behind anti-Israel rhetoric.
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The financial implications could be serious. Spain is already haunted by its experience with international arbitration over energy reforms a decade ago, when courts ordered it to pay billions in damages to foreign investors. Similar claims could now be filed by Israeli defense firms whose contracts were abruptly canceled.
“This embargo may end up being purely symbolic,” Triana warned, “because Spain might still pay for the canceled contracts while scrambling to buy the same technology through third countries with a European label.”
The fear of costly litigation explains why the decree, initially promised as an urgent measure, has been delayed week after week. The ministries of economy and treasury have pressed for narrower wording to limit exposure before arbitration tribunals such as the World Bank’s International Centre for the Settlement of Investment Disputes (ICSID). Officials admit that distinguishing between Israeli and settlement-origin products in global supply chains is technically complex, with no customs codes to enforce such restrictions.
“Without a reliable system, the embargo risks being a paper tiger,” one insider noted.
Beyond the courtroom, Spain’s own armed forces face capability gaps. Pérez Triana recalled earlier episodes when boycotting Israeli suppliers backfired.
“In the past, a ban on Israeli ammunition had to be quietly reversed because Spanish handguns were only compatible with Israeli-made rounds,” he explained. “Now we risk repeating the same mistake with radios, targeting pods or missile systems.”
Morocco looms large in these calculations. Rabat has already purchased Israeli artillery systems such as the PULS rocket launcher, the same platform Spain was preparing to acquire before the embargo. Mas emphasized that the parallel acquisition changes the balance at the Strait of Gibraltar.
“Deterrence is not a slogan,” he said. “If you deliberately create a capability gap, you invite your adversary to be more assertive.”
The concern is not limited to bilateral rivalries. Spain is a frontline NATO member responsible for guarding the alliance’s southern approaches. Any shortfall in readiness could ripple across the Mediterranean—from counterterrorism missions in the Sahel to maritime patrols against arms smuggling. Triana suggested that, in practice, Spain may still end up dependent on Israeli technology, only filtered through European partners.
“It would not be surprising if Spain buys the same systems via Germany or Italy with a different label,” he noted, describing it as a costly detour to save political face.
Meanwhile, the list of canceled projects keeps growing. Each resolution signed by procurement officials formally “annuls the publication of the award” rather than the contract itself, leaving a murky administrative trail that critics describe as a smokescreen. Lawyers warn that such half-measures could strengthen companies’ claims for damages. Military insiders say hundreds of millions of euros are at stake once penalties and compensation for halted deliveries are factored in, along with the sums already paid.
For soldiers in the field, the debate is not about symbolism but survival. Triana underlined that if spare parts run out, entire units could be left with inoperable gear.
“The problem is not ending up with second-class weapons,” he said. “The real problem is the operational vacuum in the meantime.”
This risk is particularly acute for Spain’s contribution to NATO reassurance missions in Eastern Europe, where rapid deployment and interoperability are essential. If critical components cannot be serviced, commanders may be forced to reduce commitments or rely on allies to fill the gap, weakening Spain’s credibility within the alliance.
At home, Sánchez’s coalition partners have tried to claim ownership of the embargo, with the leftist Sumar bloc hailing it as a triumph of principle. Yet their enthusiasm contrasts with growing unease in the barracks and among defense industry officials, who see jobs, technology and security being sacrificed for political theater.
Supporters of the embargo argue that Spain must be consistent in its human rights stance, pointing to sanctions on Russia after its invasion of Ukraine. But critics insist the comparison is flawed. Israel, they note, is not a marginal supplier but a leading source of advanced defense systems that Spain itself has integrated over decades.
The consequences may also extend well beyond Spain. For Israel, the loss of a European client is less about volume than about reputation. Yossi Spiegel, professor at the Coller School of Management at Tel Aviv University, told The Media Line that “contracts can be canceled or renegotiated, but the signal is very negative. It could encourage other countries to follow suit.”
Israel is a small, open economy, and it depends heavily on its commercial relationships. If we lose Europe as a trading partner, it would be a disaster of great scale
Spiegel emphasized Israel’s deep reliance on global markets. “Israel is a small, open economy, and it depends heavily on its commercial relationships,” he explained. “If we lose Europe as a trading partner, it would be a disaster of great scale.”
Europe accounts for nearly 40% of Israel’s imports and exports. According to Spiegel, “The danger is not Spain alone, but the precedent it sets inside Europe.” He pointed to countries such as Belgium, Ireland, the Netherlands and even larger economies like Germany and France as potential followers if political momentum gathers.
He also faulted Israel’s lack of foresight in managing the crisis. “Israel should have done more to prevent this situation,” Spiegel said. “When partners see no clear political strategy beyond military action, they will eventually react with measures like these.”
Adding another layer of complexity, officials in Madrid have quietly instructed ministries to replace Israeli suppliers with Chinese firms wherever possible. While intended to soften the immediate shock of canceled contracts, the move carries strategic implications. Defense experts warn that substituting Israeli technology with Chinese alternatives could deepen Spain’s dependence on Beijing at a time of mounting transatlantic scrutiny. For NATO allies, the prospect of sensitive military supply chains shifting toward China raises questions about interoperability and security assurances on the alliance’s southern flank.
As the Spanish government prepares to present the embargo decree during the United Nations General Assembly, the symbolism is undeniable. Spain aims to take a leading role in a European push for accountability in Gaza. But the internal cost of that symbolism may be measured in grounded aircraft, silent radios, idle launchers—and court orders for damages running into the hundreds of millions.
Pérez Triana offered a stark conclusion: “This embargo could leave Spain with gaps it cannot afford. You can make a political gesture in New York, but if your soldiers in Latvia or at home do not have the spare parts to keep their systems running, the gesture becomes dangerous.”
