COVID-19 Cases on the Rise Again in Israel

‘Take a deep breath and look at the data,’ coronavirus expert says

Israel’s Prime Minister Naftali Bennett called a meeting with Health Ministry officials on Wednesday, as experts warned the government not to overreact to a new wave of the coronavirus fueled by a new omicron subvariant.

According to figures released by Israel’s Health Ministry, 4,585 people were diagnosed with the coronavirus on Tuesday. This is nearly double the number of cases diagnosed a week ago, with a positivity rate of 22.29%.

Following the prime minister’s meeting with Health Ministry officials, the ministry released a statement recommending that masks be worn indoors, in crowded spaces, and when encountering at-risk individuals.

Dr. Salman Zarka, Israel’s coronavirus czar, suggested on Wednesday that a fifth vaccine dose may be needed for at-risk individuals and the elderly.

The mask recommendation comes as an interim measure since Bennett and Health Minister Nitzan Horowitz decided not to enforce new restrictions at this stage.

Zarka said that the Health Ministry believes the new wave of infections is due to the BA.5 variant, which caused the recent rise in cases in South Africa.

“Unfortunately, it seems we are starting a new coronavirus wave in Israel – the BA.5 wave,” said Zarka.

Raphael Poch, international media spokesperson for United Hatzalah, told The Media Line that the number of positive cases that his organization has discovered through testing has risen significantly, rising to 500 in the last couple of days from about 200 two weeks ago.

Since the height of the omicron wave in January, United Hatzalah has reduced the number of testing centers from 20 to only 4.

“We recently reopened our fourth testing center by Ben-Gurion airport. We had just closed it, and because of the recent rise, we’ve just opened it again,” Poch said.

This, he explained, was not only a consequence of the rise in cases, but also a result of an increase in the number of tourists.

“People coming back and forth from the United States still require testing,” he explained.

Unfortunately, it seems we are starting a new coronavirus wave in Israel – the BA.5 wave

Meanwhile, the government has for now decided not to reintroduce further restrictions.

Dr. Zvika Granot, an immunologist and cancer specialist at The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, told The Media Line that introducing restrictions at this stage may be an overreaction.

Granot explained that while the coronavirus variants appear to be getting more infectious, they are simultaneously becoming less aggressive.

“You can look at COVID and see that the variants have been following that path exactly – the first variant was relatively more aggressive, but not as infectious, and omicron was extremely infectious, and not really causing a serious disease,” he said.

For this reason, Granot suggested that, given the mild flu-like symptoms of omicron, the cost of introducing further restrictions may outweigh the benefits.

“Going for a lockdown, green passes, and extra jabs for a disease that has these symptoms is not compatible with the seriousness of the situation,” he said.

Moreover, most Israeli citizens have now had contact with and recovered from some form of COVID-19, which is widely perceived as the best form of protection.

Granot told The Media Line that the first vaccine shot was given to about 6.5 million people in Israel. Including those individuals that came down with and recovered from the omicron variant, between 7 million and 8 million Israelis have either been vaccinated or been infected with COVID-19 and recovered.

As such, some experts suggest that the population is sufficiently immunized, both naturally and artificially, to withstand high numbers of cases and even a high R number, or the transmission rate – which measures the average of how many people become infected from a single coronavirus carrier. An R number above 1 means that the virus is spreading.

Professor Ronen Alon, an immunologist at the Weizmann Institute of Science, told The Media Line: “As long as the population is relatively healthy and strong, it can tolerate even if the R goes to 2, or even higher. But again, it’s a social decision.”

Alon explains that case numbers are now relatively less important than the number of hospitalizations.

If hospitalizations remain low, he said, the R number and the number of cases can remain relatively high.

“The question is what it means in terms of hospitalizations,” Alon said.

He explained that the major concern is the elderly, for whom a fifth vaccine may be an important protective measure.

“The elderly population should [receive a fifth vaccine], if masks are not going to be reimposed and if the R stays about 1.2, 1.3, 1.4. The cost is that other people that have not been infected will be infected, which is fine since it’s just like a flu,” he said.

Alon says there are two main solutions for preventing the spread of the new omicron variant among the elderly, namely an extra vaccine, or increased isolation.

“The severe cases, of course, will be hospitalized, but immediately get the Paxlovid, which is extremely efficient for any elderly person that gets complications,” he said, referring to the oral antiviral treatment of COVID-19.

The question for the government is what costs they are willing to incur for the sake of increasingly minor benefits.

As the variants become progressively less aggressive, Alon questions the extent to which a mild form of COVID-19 can pose any significant threat.

“It’s all mathematical calculations. If you have a very light virus then it doesn’t cause any damage, but if you have infections in the hundreds of thousands per day, then you do, so you don’t want to reach this stage,” he said.

We have to weigh the need to save lives with national security, education, and the economy

The BA.5 wave does not seem to have caused an increase in the level of severe illness, although it does appear to be highly infectious.

Zarka recognized the need to tread carefully and weigh the national costs against the benefits, in a news conference on Wednesday.

“We have to weigh the need to save lives with national security, education, and the economy,” he told reporters. “The government had in the past opted not to impose restrictions and to allow economic growth alongside the COVID pandemic,” Zarka continued.

According to Poch, there is little risk of another lockdown or closing of the skies.

“I don’t think Israel is going to come to another lockdown or a closing of the skies. We learned recently that we can make it through a wave without locking down the country,” Poch speculated, referring to the initial omicron wave.

Granot told The Media Line that there is really no need for alarm.

“Someone needs to take a deep breath, look at the data, and tailor the measures to the situation at hand,” he said.

Aron Rosenthal is a student at the University of Edinburgh and an intern in The Media Line’s Press and Policy Student Program.