Iran’s New Paveh Missile Can Reach Israel but Is Not a Game Changer, Experts Say
The unveiling of a new long-range cruise missile may be the Islamic Republic's bid to improve its internal public support amid the unrest of recent months
The head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps aerospace force, Amirali Hajizadeh, unveiled Iran’s new cruise missile, Paveh, on state television, and announced that it has a 1,650 km reach, meaning that it can, distance-wise, hit Israel or American targets in the region.
However, experts believe that, even if these claims are real, the Paveh missile will not be a game changer for Israeli or American defense. Rather, they believe that the Islamic Republic’s announcement is internal propaganda meant to improve its image and counter the government’s deteriorating reputation both domestically and internationally as the anti-regime protests continue raging across the country.
“Our cruise missile with a range of 1,650 km has been added to the missile arsenal of the Islamic Republic of Iran,” Hajizadeh said on Friday while broadcasting the first images of the new missile in operation.
According to Dr. Uzi Rubin, founder and the first director of the Israel Defense Ministry’s Missile Defense Organization, the difference between a ballistic missile and a cruise missile is that a ballistic missile operates like a rocket – it takes off vertically and has a rocket motor that stops working after a while, and the missile keeps on flying through inertia; while a cruise missile is “in reality, a small airplane usually with a jet engine, and it flies like a passenger aircraft but with no people inside.”
Rubin told the Media Line that Iran has claimed in the past that it has cruise missiles with a longer range.
“They have claimed already for more than 10 years that they have cruise missiles that can go 2,000 kilometers,” he said. That is why, he believes, “it’s quite surprising that now they are saying that they have achieved the range of 1,650 km, 10 years after claiming that they have a range of 2,000 km. Apparently, their previous cruise missiles were not very successful.”
They brag about every new missile that they have in order to frighten Israel, to frighten the Americans, and to brag in front of their own audience. The Iranian people themselves are not very happy with the regime, and this is the regime showing that it is working for the defense of Iran.
He explained that the move of unveiling such missiles on Iranian state television might be a bid to gain public support.
“They brag about every new missile that they have in order to frighten Israel, to frighten the Americans, and to brag in front of their own audience,” he said. “The Iranian people themselves are not very happy with the regime, and this is the regime showing that it is working for the defense of Iran,” Rubin added.
Alexander Grinberg, an Iran expert and a Captain (res.) in the IDF Military Intelligence Research Department, told The Media Line that Iran’s goal with this unveiling is to show that the internal turmoil is not affecting the Islamic Republic’s geopolitical power.
“The goal is propaganda,” he said, adding that this can be a way to show that the regime is capable of countering the ongoing domestic unrest. “It is for people not to think that the regime is unstable, or its regional behavior is impacted in any way by domestic troubles,” he added.
“There is a lot of propaganda here, so it’s really hard to say what is true and what is propaganda. What I can say is that it is not unfeasible, it is not impossible that they have it,” Rubin said.
However, he claims that despite the fact that this might be “a big deal” for Iran, these capabilities are not superior in the global arena. For example, he noted, the Russians, the Americans and the Chinese have cruise missiles that can travel as far as 7,000 km – 8,000 km. “What they claim is nothing unusual in the business,” he added.
From the Israeli perspective, this new missile does not represent a need to alter its air defense system. Rubin says that Israel is already prepared for such a threat. “Israel has at least one system specified against cruise missiles, the David’s Sling,” he said.
David’s Sling is an advanced multi-mission interceptor jointly developed by the Israeli defense technology company, Rafael Advanced Defense Systems, and the American multinational aerospace Raytheon Technologies Corporation. According to Rafael, David’s Sling, “provides an affordable, lethal hit-to-kill solution for the huge volume of asymmetric threats,” according to its website.
Grinberg says that this newly unveiled Iranian cruise missile does not pose an immediate threat to Israel, but it does reveal Iran’s intentions in the international arena.
“If we put together everything that they are doing, it showcases that the Iranians have no desire whatsoever of reaching a deal or a compromise” with the Western powers, he said.
Grinberg adds that this shows that the Islamic Republic’s stance is still “absolutely confrontational,” but he reiterates that it does not mean this new missile is a game changer.
Iran is capable of manufacturing such a missile but, still, its technological level falls behind America’s or Israel’s, he explained.
“They have the capacity in principle, but it still does not have that American or Israeli level of sophistication which would require really another level of protection,” he concluded.
