Israeli Experts Warn of Fallout as US–Iran Nuclear Talks Advance
As US–Iran nuclear negotiations gain traction and inspections stall, Israeli security experts warn that the regional balance of power could shift permanently, leaving Israel without its strategic edge. In a deep dive by Gabriel Colodro, former Israeli national security adviser Haim Asa and US–Israel relations scholar Eytan Gilboa assess the stakes, from diplomacy to deterrence.
Asa supports continued negotiations, crediting President Donald Trump for opening direct talks. He argues that military strikes on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure would only bring temporary results and lead to dangerous cycles of escalation. “We are entering a phase of mutual nuclear deterrence with Iran, whether we like it or not,” Asa says. He urges Israel to prioritize diplomacy and regional normalization over unilateral action.
This holiday season, give to:
Truth and understanding
The Media Line's intrepid correspondents are in Israel, Gaza, Lebanon, Syria and Pakistan providing first-person reporting.
They all said they cover it.
We see it.
We report with just one agenda: the truth.
Gilboa is more cautious. He believes Iran’s uranium enrichment—now at 60%—signals clear military intent and warns that nuclear material could fall into the hands of terrorists. He says Israel’s leadership, particularly Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, has weakened its position by opposing the original 2015 agreement and alienating key allies. “Trump will impose the deal,” Gilboa says, “and Netanyahu will have no choice but to accept it.”
Both experts point to Saudi Arabia’s growing nuclear ambitions, suggesting that if Iran goes nuclear, others in the region—including Turkey and Egypt—may follow. Asa remains hopeful that regional parity could prevent conflict. Gilboa disagrees, citing the ideological nature of the Iranian regime.
Their paths differ—one focused on diplomacy, the other on strategic readiness—but both warn that Israel must act now to define its future. As Colodro explains, the stakes are high and time is short.
