Back to Shock and Awe Tactics!
Al-Ittihad, UAE, April 11
In 2003, the United States launched a multi-front assault on Iraq, employing “shock and awe” tactics aimed at swiftly defeating Saddam Hussein’s forces. The Bush administration envisioned that this overwhelming military offensive would pave the way for a new Iraqi government and ignite a wave of democratic reform throughout the Middle East. However, the campaign ultimately proved to be a strategic miscalculation, echoing the disastrous entanglement of the United States in Vietnam during the 1960s and 1970s.
Today, President Donald Trump is pursuing his own version of “shock and awe”—this time not through military might but through an aggressive trade war, imposing sweeping tariffs on key economic partners. His administration argues that these measures will lead to a “rebalancing” of trade relationships, a resurgence of American manufacturing, and the dawn of a new era of economic strength and national pride. Trump has characterized his tariffs as “a beautiful thing to contemplate,” suggesting that the short-term disruptions they cause are a small price to pay for long-term gain.
Yet the initial reaction from global financial markets has been one of alarm. Since Trump announced his latest round of tariffs on April 2, markets have plummeted, a reflection of widespread skepticism among investors—including many who once supported his candidacy. Even Elon Musk, once seen as a close ally and ideological protégé, has voiced disapproval of the administration’s tariff strategy.
Undeterred, Trump escalated the conflict by announcing a new set of tariffs targeting countries with which the United States maintains the largest trade deficits, with China at the forefront. China responded swiftly, imposing counter-tariffs on 84% of American goods. Within hours, Trump retaliated yet again, raising tariffs on Chinese products to 125%.
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The fallout has not been confined to China. Many other nations, particularly within the European Union, have pushed back against Trump’s trade war, even as the administration temporarily suspended additional tariffs on countries outside of China. Some of these nations have expressed a willingness to negotiate, though it remains unclear whether any meaningful breakthroughs can be achieved.
Unless Trump abruptly changes course, his tariff policies are likely to inflict long-term damage on America’s global standing. Even traditional allies are beginning to question not only his trade decisions but the broader trajectory of his administration. His drive to shrink the federal government has led to abrupt and chaotic policy shifts, including the sudden termination of humanitarian aid through the US Agency for International Development, leaving many vulnerable populations—particularly in Africa—without access to vital medical and food assistance and without any clear alternatives.
The erosion of America’s soft power is not merely symbolic; it carries tangible consequences for the nation’s reputation and diplomatic leverage. The trade war has deeply strained relations with Canada and Mexico, two of the United States’ closest neighbors, who have grown distrustful and resentful of Trump’s inflammatory rhetoric and erratic policy decisions. Trump’s suggestion that Canada should become the 51st US state and his repeated threats to deploy military force against Mexican drug cartels have further alienated both governments.
His provocative declarations about reclaiming the Panama Canal and his not-so-subtle interest in purchasing Greenland—ostensibly for economic and strategic gain—have been met with alarm across the Western Hemisphere. These moves evoke a bygone era of American expansionism reminiscent of 19th-century foreign policy. At the heart of that earlier doctrine was the Monroe Doctrine, proclaimed by President James Monroe in 1823, which warned European powers against interfering in the Western Hemisphere.
Trump’s foreign policy posture today—marked by a willingness to concede spheres of influence to global powers like Russia and China—has paradoxically revived that antiquated worldview, one in which dominant powers carve up the globe along lines of influence. While such ideas may be welcomed in Moscow and Beijing, they are deeply unsettling to America’s traditional allies, who view them as further evidence of Washington’s unreliability.
The fallout from this geopolitical shift could be profound, potentially catalyzing new global security dynamics, including the proliferation of nuclear weapons, as nations scramble to assert their sovereignty in an increasingly unstable world order.
Geoffrey Kemp (translated by Asaf Zilberfarb)
