Following the Assassination of Ismail Haniyeh
Al Arabiya, Saudi Arabia, August 3
A state of uncertainty grips the region following the assassination of Hamas Political Bureau chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, while he was a guest in the heart of Iran’s capital. The anticipated Iranian responses against Israel, presumed to be behind the assassination, add to the turmoil. Israel, however, has not officially claimed responsibility for the assassination, seemingly to nullify any justifications for an Iranian retaliation, which could then be framed as an unprovoked attack by Iran. This incident has also sent shockwaves through Iranian militias, not least because it occurred in Tehran—an epicenter of decision-making, now exposed as vulnerable. This breach in Tehran’s security raises alarming concerns about spying at the highest echelons, affecting the broader security framework of Iran’s militias. Given this precarious balance, the Iranian response may serve more to distract the militias with the notion of retaliation rather than addressing the fundamental security lapses troubling Tehran’s political hierarchy. Thus, any action by these militias may aim more at obscuring the details of the assassination than addressing it head-on. However, regardless of Iran’s possible response, it will not alter the Palestinian dynamics, which are set to enter a complex phase that could diminish Iran’s influence in Palestinian affairs moving forward. In the aftermath of Haniyeh’s assassination, the political landscape in Gaza is the first to feel the tremors. Discussions about an upcoming truce and the future of Gaza post-conflict have shifted dramatically. Prime Minister Netanyahu, unburdened by concerns over hostages, now holds additional strategic advantages following a series of high-profile strikes against Hamas and Hezbollah, reinforcing his standing in Israeli domestic politics. Netanyahu’s December 2023 ultimatum—that Hamas must surrender or face destruction—remains pivotal, especially after reinforcing it through multiple assassinations, including that of a senior Hezbollah military figure. For Hamas, the war’s continuation with the loss of key military leaders and the risk to political leaders abroad places heavy pressure on the Qassam Brigades in Gaza, now shouldering the burden of decision-making alone. This scenario likely forces Hamas to contemplate a future in Gaza stripped of military control, a significant blow that would reduce it to a political entity devoid of substantial military power. This is a difficult crossroads for the Qassam Brigades, which face mounting internal and external pressures, making the concept of post-war Gaza highly relevant in forthcoming negotiations. Abroad, Hamas faces challenges not only in security but also in its political role, particularly in Lebanon. If an official war between Hezbollah and Israel breaks out, leading to a political settlement, Hezbollah’s presence in southern Lebanon would likely be diminished. Hamas, similarly, may find itself relegated to a purely political role in Lebanon, maintaining military strength primarily in the West Bank, shifting towards covert operations. The potential loss of Gaza presents an uncertain future for Hamas, raising questions about its political relevance and capacity for restructuring. On the Palestinian Authority’s front, the possibility that Hamas might lose Gaza without securing a political agreement poses a substantial challenge. The Israeli stance opposing the full return of the Palestinian Authority to Gaza complicates the prospect of unifying Gaza and the West Bank, straining relations between the Palestinian Authority and Hamas. Hamas would need the Palestinian Authority to maintain political relevance, which might require significant concessions, compelling Hamas to reconsider its ideology and approach profoundly. The assassination of Haniyeh, following closely on the heels of other key Gaza military leaders, marks a critical juncture as it occurred amid vital negotiations between Hamas and Israel, and an attempt to recalibrate the Palestinian political landscape. This assassination underscores the movement’s need to identify a secure locale and formulate an acceptable political agenda. Notably, the Oslo Accords emerged not immediately after the PLO’s exodus from Beirut but were catalyzed by the Intifada, which paved the way for the Palestinian Authority’s establishment. In contrast, Hamas now faces the challenge of defining its future trajectory and political strategy in a fractured environment. The looming Iranian response and the prospect of Hezbollah’s military engagement further contribute to an evolving equation, likely resulting in a diminished Iranian and Hezbollah role in the Palestinian issue moving forward. —Ayman Khaled (translated by Asaf Zilberfarb)
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