The Risk of Escalation in the Middle East and Beyond
Al-Ittihad, UAE, January 27
In light of the ongoing war in the Gaza Strip and the lack of political will to reach a cease-fire, it is becoming increasingly clear that the use of force has become a preferred means in today’s world to resolve conflicts. This was evident in the forgotten war in Ukraine, where force was employed to achieve specific goals. China is also adopting a similar approach in the South China Sea, viewing it as a region of strategic importance. In the case of the Gaza War, Israel continues to rely on the use of force and is committed to establishing a permanent security presence deep within the Gaza Strip. This will only further complicate the situation and incite regional players to get involved. Proxy factions in Yemen, Iraq, and Syria are already taking advantage of the chaotic environment, leading to potential escalations and irresponsible events. The targeting of Houthi militia bases by the United States and Britain is a mistake that will only exacerbate tensions further. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s warning of possible escalation and global conflicts highlights the extended conflicts that may arise in the future. Confrontations in Asia, especially involving Iran, Jaish ul-Adl, and ISIS may lead to increased tension in the Middle East. There are valid fears of a comprehensive regional conflict arising from the Gaza war between Israel and Hamas. The tension in the region, as well as the aspirations of major powers such as the United States, Britain, France, and countries in the European Union, show that the use of force is being proposed and employed as a solution. This is happening due to the failure of political solutions and the lack of opportunities for calm. The United Nations and its secretary-general, despite their powers, have been unable to intervene effectively, with the United States obstructing their actions. The international community must not only focus on the Middle East but also address conflicts globally. Recent events in the regional and international systems indicate that we are heading toward heightened conflicts. This is occurring within the framework of a new multipolar world, where the concept of force is increasingly emphasized. Real approaches to calm are absent. The Middle East and the Southeast Asian region are witnessing pivotal developments, with major powers striving to establish fait accompli achievements on the ground. This sometimes requires unconventional approaches, and their potential consequences must be carefully considered to prevent major clashes. The Gaza war and its possible spillover to other countries in the region serve as a stark example, highlighting the role of regional players in creating an unstable environment. The accumulation of ongoing conflicts may lead to military fluidity, political and strategic disparities, and a heightened alert among international powers. Continuing to resort to the use of force may result in multi-party wars with complicated and intertwined regional and international interests. —Tarek Fahmy (translated by Asaf Zilberfarb)
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