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Trump Is Back: Israel Is Excited and Iran Is Apprehensive

The Media Line Staff

11/18/2024

Al-Watan, Saudi Arabia, November 4

Whenever a new president takes office, both internal and external interests shift, altering the policies that define their administration. Despite the US being a state founded on institutions, it often prioritizes interests over continuity in global issues. Values and principles occasionally surface but are often overshadowed by strategic interests. George W. Bush dedicated his terms to avenging the September 11 attacks through his “war on terror” in Afghanistan and Iraq. Barack Obama, succeeding him, began by withdrawing from Iraq and seeking a nuclear deal with Iran, only to end his presidency by compensating Israel for perceived harm from that agreement. Donald Trump quickly abandoned the accord, applying sanctions on Iran and fulfilling Israeli wishes like recognizing Jerusalem as its capital and supporting its claims over the Golan Heights. Joe Biden orchestrated the withdrawal from Afghanistan and soon faced the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This led him to a wartime stance, while he revived the Obama-era vision of the nuclear agreement, only to confront issues like the October 7 attacks, acting staunchly pro-Zionist and at the mercy of Netanyahu, who openly supports Trump’s potential return. As the 2024 elections approach, Eastern and Western spheres present divergent visions for America and the global order. In the campaign’s final week, uncertainty prevails, with opinion polls showing Kamala Harris having only a marginal lead, if any. As economic growth figures slump, doubts cast over Biden’s legacy, challenging Harris’s campaign focus. Conversely, Trump ramps up efforts, signaling premature presidential power strategies with congressional Republican leaders, preparing for narrow victory margins. He strengthens ties with European far-right populists like Hungary’s Viktor Orbán, who suggests Trump’s potential truce with Putin over Ukraine, concerning European capitals fearing an Atlantic alliance pivot. Trump appears open to Russia retaining occupied Ukrainian territories and opposes Ukraine’s NATO membership, aligning with Putin’s conditions. Recently, Trump vaguely addressed Arab Americans in Michigan, seemingly urging Israel to “finish the job” with Hezbollah and Hamas, aligning with Biden and Western governments. Reports suggest Trump tells Netanyahu he wants the Gaza conflict resolved by his potential office assumption. Trump’s advisors claim regular Netanyahu contact, urging pre-election Iran attacks, contrary to Biden’s preferences. Unexpectedly, Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei surfaced, declaring planned retaliation before the US elections. Tehran’s calculations are questioned, especially as it’s apprehensive about a Trump resurgence during a vulnerable time, following missile program damages and militia losses. Tehran didn’t predict the emerging consensus to limit its regional influence, even receiving nods from allies like Russia and China. Iran now anticipates a possible American green light for an Israeli strike on its nuclear sites, doubting the effectiveness of its proxies defending the mullah regime from afar. —Abdulwahab Badrakhan (translated by Asaf Zilberfarb)