Why Did Hezbollah Stop Confronting the Israeli Air Force?
An-Nahar, Lebanon, July 25
Since June 10, Hezbollah has been unable to down a single Israeli drone in Lebanese airspace. Prior to this, the organization had announced the downing of a fifth Israeli drone and issued statements claiming to have forced the Israeli Air Force to evacuate its fighter jets using surface-to-air missiles. Hezbollah’s propaganda machine embarked on an assertive campaign, declaring its intention to “liberate” Lebanese airspace with its advanced weaponry. But abruptly, this military and propagandistic confrontation ceased, with neither Hezbollah nor Israel offering any explanation. So, what transpired? Over the past three weeks, the Israeli Air Force initiated a campaign to intimidate the Lebanese populace by conducting mock raids across Lebanon. This plan, sanctioned by Israel’s political leadership, aimed to highlight the hefty price Lebanese civilians in otherwise “safe” parts of the country pay due to Hezbollah’s actions, thus stoking pressure on Hezbollah to halt border skirmishes and agree to ceasefire terms. Concurrently, Israel intensified its strategies to target and assassinate Hezbollah’s leaders and fighters using drones. In contrast, rather than ramping up defenses against Israeli aircraft and drones, Hezbollah pivoted to an alternative tactic that appears not to trouble Israel “strategically,” expanding its attacks on vacated towns in northern Israel. In the interim, several key developments unfolded: Israel tracked missiles-launching fighters deep into the Bekaa Valley, struck warehouses allegedly belonging to Hezbollah’s air force, conducted a series of raids in Syria targeting Hezbollah and Iranian Revolutionary Guards weapons caches, training sites, and supply routes, and eliminated intermediaries procuring high-quality arms for Hezbollah. While there is no concrete evidence linking these actions to the cessation of Hezbollah’s confrontations with Israeli drones and aircraft, there is a plausible connection between these tactics and Israel regaining unfettered access to Lebanese airspace at no cost. At present, it is evident that the Israeli army’s confidence in Hezbollah’s diminished capabilities is growing. The Maariv newspaper cited a senior Israeli military source who believes there’s a decline in Hezbollah’s operational capabilities at the command and control level, as well as in its ammunition stockpiles, which are reportedly difficult for Hezbollah to replenish, leaving some stocks depleted. Historically, Lebanon’s public discourse was largely dictated by Hezbollah. Remarkably, the cessation of Hezbollah’s anti-aircraft activities, despite its significance, has been conspicuously absent from Israeli discourse, both military and media. If one were to indulge in conspiracy theories, it could be surmised that an arrangement was struck between Israel and Hezbollah: Hezbollah would cease targeting Israeli drones if Israel halted its raids on Baalbek and surrounding areas. Indeed, since Hezbollah stopped targeting Israeli drones, Israeli raids on Baalbek have ceased. Previously, Israel had established a tit-for-tat strategy of retaliating against Golan Heights attacks by striking Baalbek. While Hezbollah has not ceased its activities in the Golan, Israeli strikes on Baalbek have stopped. What does this signify for future developments? In the media, the Israeli army suggests that Hezbollah’s “erosion” will facilitate what they call a “ground maneuver” inside Lebanon. However, given the broader context of exhaustion gripping both the Israeli state and its military, Israel may simply escalate the war of attrition while avoiding full-scale war. Regardless of the precise reasons behind Hezbollah’s halt in confronting Israeli drones, it is evident that one of two realities is concealed: either Israel has found a “cure” for its woes through military pressure, or Hezbollah is amenable to compromises that ease Israeli concerns. In both scenarios, one overarching conclusion stands: neither exhausted party desires an all-out war, paving the way for mediators to ultimately achieve a diplomatic resolution when the opportunity arises. –Fares Khachan (translated by Asaf Zilberfarb)
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