Will the Collapse of the Assad Regime Bring Turkey and Israel Closer?
Maariv, Israel, January 1
The downfall of the Assad regime in Syria has sent ripples through the region, affecting numerous stakeholders both close and afar. Among those poised to benefit from these developments is Turkey. The significance of the Syrian situation to Turkish national security is unmistakable. With Syria as its neighbor, Turkey not only shares an extensive border but is also entwined with Syria through a convoluted history and the presence of a Kurdish minority—a matter of national concern for Ankara. Over the past year, Turkey has sought to normalize relations with the Assad regime, anticipating that a stable Syrian government might facilitate the return of refugees. Simultaneously, Turkey has sustained its backing for Syrian rebels and other factions that it has supported throughout the conflict, using them as potential leverage against the regime and to exert pressure on the Kurdish groups. The swift disintegration of the Assad regime caught both the rebels and Turkey by surprise. Yet, the subsequent day placed Ankara in an advantageous position relative to the nascent government in Damascus. Turkey now emerges as a potential influencer in shaping the Syrian regime’s image, aiming to safeguard its own interests and bolster its regional standing. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan expressed that a meeting between Damascus and Ahmed al-Sharaa, Syria’s new de facto leader, was necessary. Observers noted the cordial rapport between the two figures. This new landscape repositions Turkey at the regional forefront, from which it has been conspicuously absent since October 7, 2023. The fall of Assad, combined with the weakening of Iran and Hezbollah and Turkey’s previously improved relations with Gulf countries and Egypt, brings a sense of rejuvenation to President Erdoğan.
Nevertheless, questions loom over Syria’s capacity to forge a broad internal consensus after enduring years of warfare, and the ubiquitous Kurdish issue re-emerges. Excessive Turkish involvement in Syria’s governmental formation might trigger opposition from wide swathes of the Syrian populace. In the Kurdish context, the situation becomes particularly intricate. Ankara believes, with some merit, that it has enhanced mechanisms to apply pressure on the autonomous Kurdish region in northeastern Syria. However, it remains uncertain how these tactics can be leveraged amidst the evolving policies of the new US administration, along with the stances of Iran and Israel.
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From Israel’s vantage point, two pivotal issues emerge concerning Turkey. The first pertains to bilateral relations. The Assad regime’s collapse presents a mutual interest for Israel and Turkey, but it remains to be seen whether this will foster collaboration. The second issue is tied to the Kurdish question. Israel has a longstanding history of supporting Kurdish factions in the area and likely has a vested interest in maintaining the US military presence in Syria. An Israeli policy perceived as overly favorable to the Kurds could ignite a vehement Turkish response. Presently, tensions have already flared between the two nations. Ankara condemned Israel’s activities in Syria, to which Jerusalem retaliated with an official statement dismissing Turkey’s allegations, criticizing Turkish actions in northern Syria, and concluding with a pointed remark: “There is no justification for the continuation of Turkish aggression against the Kurds in Syria.” While this rhetorical tension is anticipated to persist in the near term, it is imperative for both countries to engage in meaningful dialogue to explore avenues for cooperation that align with their shared interests. —Michael Harari (translated by Asaf Zilberfarb)
