As US Seeks To Promote Ambitious Regional New Order, Biden and Netanyahu’s Interests Clash

US President Biden and Israeli PM Netanyahu clash over Gaza amid re-election and coalition pressures as the US seeks to end the war and revive the Palestinian Authority—despite Netanyahu's opposition to Palestinian statehood.

It was only a matter of time when the short-lived honeymoon between US President Joe Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ended.

As the US leader faces re-election in less than a year and Netanyahu clings to his seat amidst growing unpopularity, both leaders have different needs and contradicting schedules, making a clash between the White House and Jerusalem almost a done deal.

On Sunday, Biden was quoted in the Politico website as calling the Israeli premier a “bad f*cking guy.” The US administration quickly denied the quote, but there is no doubt there is bad blood between the President and the Israeli premier.

Biden was quick to show support for Israel in the wake of Hamas’ offensive against the Jewish state on Oct. 7th. He visited the country just days after the war began, setting aside his previous differences with Netanyahu.

Before the war, Netanyahu was seen by the White House as the leader of Israel’s most extreme right-wing coalition ever to govern. The attempt by the Israeli government to promote a wide-reaching judicial reform that sparked a massive wave of protests in the country led to further discord between the two countries.

As Israel was shocked by the scale of Hamas’ attack, which killed approximately 1200 Israelis and wounded thousands more in one day, the US was quick to stand by Israel, fast-tracking military aid and lending political support in international forums.

Israel set out its goals for the war—toppling Hamas and releasing the approximately 250 hostages the terrorist organization captured as part of the attack—and the US agreed.

Four months later, as the war drags on, the gaps between Biden and Netanyahu are widening.

“Both sides are more influenced by internal politics than practical considerations,” said Prof. Eytan Gilboa, an expert on the US at Bar-Ilan University and senior fellow at the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security. “Netanyahu wants to maintain his extreme right-wing coalition, and Biden is facing more and more criticism about his support for Israel. Domestic politics have taken over.”

Netanyahu’s coalition was always a cause of concern for the White House. Over the weekend, Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir told the Wall Street Journal that the Biden Administration was “hurting Israel’s war effort.” US officials have voiced their concern over the policies expressed by Ben-Gvir even before he was sworn into office a little over a year ago, according to reports in Israeli media. Ben-Gvir has been convicted in Israel of racist incitement against Arabs and has been a staunch supporter of the Kach movement, which appeared on the US terrorist organization blacklist.

Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich has been another difficult pill for the US to swallow. Smotrich has been outspoken against Palestinian statehood for years. Last week, Smotrich condemned the Biden administration for imposing sanctions on Israeli extremists who have attacked Palestinians from the West Bank. The timing of the move, which could have been adopted by the US beforehand, was likely chosen as there was mounting American dissatisfaction with the Netanyahu government.

Incidents continue to accumulate.

Last week, both Ben Gvir and Smotrich participated in a highly controversial conference held in Jerusalem that called for Israel to re-settle the Gaza Strip with Jewish settlements and encourage Palestinian residents of Gaza to “voluntarily emigrate” from the territory. The White House immediately condemned the event, warning Netanyahu to reign in his cabinet ministers.

Netanyahu has repeatedly denied any such intention by his government. Still, the voices to his right, the ones he needs to keep him in power, are being carefully eyed by Washington. Netanyahu’s political allies have threatened to topple the coalition if the goal of toppling Hamas is not achieved.

As the fighting continues and Israel appears to be far from that goal, Netanyahu’s political future could be at stake. This is compounded by the fact that negotiations on a possible hostage release deal have also led to threats from Ben Gvir and others. Such a deal would likely see a mass release of Palestinian prisoners from Israeli jails; many of them have been convicted of murdering countless Israelis.

“A reckless deal = The dissolution of the government,” Ben-Gvir posted on X, the social media platform formerly known as Twitter, as details of a possible deal emerged.

Also troubling for Netanyahu are the plummeting approval ratings for his performance amongst the Israeli public. Polls have consistently shown that a future election campaign would result in his ousting. Netanyahu and many others have rejected the notion of elections while the country is at war.

“Netanyahu’s interest is to elongate the war,” said Eran Ezion, former deputy head of Israel’s National Security Council.

According to Ezion, Biden is indeed racing against the clock ahead of fighting for his re-election in the coming fall. However, there is “congruence between his political and US national interests.”

“The US sees the situation as a serious threat to its own national security, and they are investing a lot of effort and resources in order to prevent deterioration, with limited success so far,” he told The Media Line.

The US has also reportedly been trying to encourage Israel to limit the number of Palestinian casualties as a result of its military campaign. Since the beginning of the war, the Hamas-run Gaza Health Ministry has reported over 26,000 deaths and approximately 65,000 injured. The damage to the Gaza Strip is estimated at billions of dollars.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is in the region this week in an attempt to push an ambitious American initiative that will not only end the war in Gaza but put in place a new regional order. The US is seeking to normalize relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia as part of a larger effort to counter Iranian influence in the region. The Saudi Arabian price tag for such a move is high and includes not only a guarantee for Palestinian statehood but extensive military aid from the US. Biden’s new “New Deal,” or the Biden Doctrine, also envisions the currently embattled Palestinian Authority (PA), after being ‘revitalized,’ as a leading factor in the building of Palestinian statehood. As part of the plan, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and the United Arab Emirates are supposed to take a major role in the rehabilitation of the Gaza Strip.

“The Americans are aware that the chances of this very ambitious plan to succeed are not very high,” said Ezion. “The question is how much political, military and diplomatic capital they are willing to invest in this endeavor. These are very significant questions for them.”

There is also a significant hurdle within the Israeli government that needs to be either removed or placated. The Netanyahu government has no majority for the establishment of a Palestinian state, putting the Israeli premier in a bind.

“Israel is completely dependent on the US, and the US can use several tools to pressure Israel,” Gilboa said. “If Netanyahu will feel that the US is impeding the continuation of the war effort, he will try to use the American pressure to impose moderation on his extremist partners.”

All the while, Biden’s political clock is ticking.

Arab American leaders are using the primary elections ahead of the presidential campaign to signal their dissatisfaction with Biden’s Middle Eastern policy, especially his support for Israel. Losing a swing state such as Michigan, with the largest Arab community in the US, could be a fatal blow to his campaign.

“There is a scheduling conflict. Biden wants an achievement ahead of the elections,” said Gilboa. “But the facts on the ground and the plan itself are on a different schedule, needing much more time.”

Just this week, Hamas appeared to be regaining control of areas in the Gaza Strip from which the Israeli army withdrew as it focused its operations elsewhere. Hamas, it seems, is not near to losing its hold on the territory, distancing Israel and the US from the goal of removing it. This is one of the first steps of the Biden plan.

“The Biden Administration has very little time,” said Ezion. “With no Israeli partner to work with, it is difficult to see how such a plan could be implemented in so little time.”

Throughout his many years in office, Netanyahu has prided himself on managing relations with the US, including during times of dispute. With the high stakes for all players this time, both sides will have to up their game to rise above their differences and keep the relationship intact.